5 for Sunday (A Photo Essay)

Nobody wants to actually read during this time of year, what with all the shopping, wrapping, party-attending, imbibing and Christmas movie-watching that there is to be done. Plus, after last week, my words are about the equivalent of dog excrement on a computer screen, so this week will be a mere photo essay with one picture describing why I'm taking each game whatever way I'm taking it. Home teams in CAPS.

Dallas (-7) over TAMPA BAY (Saturday Night)









Green Bay (-13.5) over KANSAS CITY













Seattle (+3.5) over CHICAGO









Carolina (+6) over HOUSTON













DENVER (+7.5) over New England













Last Week: 0-4-1
Season: 30-34-6

5 for Sunday

Well, that was fun while it lasted. Back to .500 on the nose heading into Week 14. Home teams in CAPS.

BALTIMORE (-16.5) over Indianapolis
In what is considered a pretty decent rivalry, would you be surprised if I told you that the Ravens haven't beaten Indy since 2001, a time span consisting of nine meetings between the teams? That streak is highly likely to end right here if the Ravens, who are undefeated at home, play to form. The Colts made things interesting late against the papier maché defense of the Patriots last week, but don't count on that happening in Baltimore this week. Last week was a fluke.

TENNESSEE (+3.5) over New Orleans
The Titans are coming on strong lately, thanks in large part to Chris Johnson's resurgence. The Saints do not play nearly as well on the road as they do at home, and despite their ability to run the ball, their type of game still does not translate to grass the way that it does to turf. I'll take a blind stab with the 3.5 at home for the Titans, because this is a team that is suddenly in the hunt and it could be a field goal game either way.

MIAMI (-3) over Philadelphia
The Dolphins are 4-8 getting better, while the Eagles are 4-8 getting worse. Mike Vick does come back this week, sparing drunk Eagles fans all over the Delaware Valley from passes like this. However, the return of the starting quarterback does not a victory guarantee, especially when the Eagles' defense has been putting on embarrassing displays of tackling for most of the season. The Dolphins are a team that nobody wants to play right now and the only thing they have in common with the team that started 0-7 is their uniforms.

Kansas City (+10.5) over NY JETS
I firmly believe the Jets will win this game, but they have way too many kinks in their offense for me to give up that many points with them. Give Kansas City some credit for the fight that they have shown in the past few weeks when they could have easily folded after losing Matt Cassel. The Chiefs play respectable defense, so I just don't think enough points will be scored in this one to justify anything but taking the underdog. Jets by a 17-10, 14-6 type score.

DENVER (-3) over Chicago
In what could have been the Jay Cutler Bowl, we're left with an early Christmas present instead. Wait a second - Tebowmania and a Broncos team with a ton of momentum is at home against a Bears team that is anemic with Caleb Hanie under center, and all you have to lay is the standard 3 points? Thank you, where do I sign? It's simple: don't kick to Devin Hester, and let God's QB sort things out in the last 5 minutes.

Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 30-30-5

5 for Sunday

Finally back over .500 after last week. I wanted to take Seattle plus the 3 at home against the Eagles on Thursday night, but I didn't get it in on time so it won't count. Home teams in CAPS.

Cincinnati (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
When all is said and done, the Bengals just play close games. Do they have enough to win at the Big Ketchup Bottle in December? Maybe not. But I think they have enough to keep things close. The Steelers will not light up the scoreboard and Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not yet back to 100%, as anyone who saw last Sunday night's squeaker in Kansas City would attest. Now that Andy Dalton has A.J. Green back on the field, the Bengals might be able to take the shots against Pittsburgh's depleted secondary that the Chiefs weren't able to.

NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) over Indianapolis
If you needed any further reason to take the Patriots in this game, be advised that Dan Orlovsky is starting this game for the Colts. Moving on....

Tennessee (+2.5) over BUFFALO
The Bills had plenty of chances against the Jets last week, but Stevie Johnson spent more time orchestrating touchdown celebrations than catching the ball. Chris Johnson is seemingly back to being the Chris Johnson of 2009, which measures up favorably against the Bills' 4.5-ypc run defense. Simply put, Tennessee is a decent team and Buffalo is a fraud. Take the points and enjoy not watching this game.

Denver (+1.5) over MINNESOTA

Does Tebowmania continue? A lot of people are saying it will not, now that God's quarterback will be faced with the Metrodome. However, with Adrian Peterson ruled out again for the Vikings, I have no real reason to back a team that has lost 5 of 6 over a team that has won 5 of 6 and seems to have something supernatural on their side.

Green Bay (-6.5) over NY GIANTS

I guess there are people out there who have some blind faith that the Giants will just pull one out of their ass against the unquestioned best team in football. Those people must not have seen either of the Giants' past two games. It's not that I don't think the Giants have a good team. The Giants do have a good team. It's just that too many of those players who make up that "good team" are either injured or playing hurt (Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Justin Tuck, Michael Boley, and Osi Umenyiora just to name a few). Even if the December wind starts whipping around MetLife Stadium, you can't tell me that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, on 10 days' rest, don't have another field day.

Last Week: 4-1-0

Season: 28-27-5

5 for Championship Weekend

1-4 last weekend after a very puzzling overturned replay decision in the Michigan game.  Good thing Michigan hung on or a some blood would be on my hands.  32-33 on the season in the race for .500.

All games Saturday

Conference USA Championship
Southern Miss @ Houston (-13.5) Noon ABC

The Cougars are one game away from the BCS.  Will they be distracted by impending departure of their head coach or will they keep rolling divisional foes?

Texas @ Baylor (-2.5) 3:30 ABC

Is this Mack Brown's swan song?  Rumors are he could be retiring.  Is RG3 banged up after last week?  Answers are probably and probably not respectively.  I am pulling for a Texas win hard but I think Baylor takes this one at home.

SEC/ National Championship
LSU (-13.5) vs. Georgia in the ATL 4 CBS

Georgia is on a roll as predicted with their soft conference schedule and the best QB in the SEC.  They have a shot against LSU and should be able to score in the high 20s but they will need to break 30 to have a shot in this one.  Georgia's defense is going to have to win this one.  Meanwhile if LSU wins this one they will have earned the National Championship in my view.  They will have one of the most impressive resumes in recent history and most importantly beat Bama in Bama.  Conversation over, fuck you Bama.

Big 12 defacto Championship

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (-3.5) 8 ABC

This is a straight toss up but I think OK State will snap their drought in this series and keep their faint title hopes alive.  Chances are this is one of the more entertaining games of the day.

B16 Ten Championship

Michigan State (+10) @ Wisconsin 8 FOX

I'm with Lou on this one.  How do you not like MSU +10 even if you think Wisconsin will win.  Wisconsin should be out for blood because they were o so close to a magical season stop by miracle plays surrendered in East Lansing and Columbus.  This game is sold out depsite what a brilliant Craigslist scheme had us believe.

Cinq Pour Samedi - Championship Weekend Edition

Championship Weekend should be the most anticipated slate of the pre-bowl season, but this year it is shaping up to be bit of a dud. Or are they? After all, the games aren't played on paper. (But who are we kidding, some of these matchups might really blow). Home teams in CAPS unless the game is at a neutral site.

OREGON (-31) over UCLA (Friday Night)

UCLA thought so highly of Rick Neuheisel's work in taking them to the Pac-12 Championship Game that they are letting him coach the game despite his dismissal this week. Yes, that was sarcasm. The truth is that the Bruins don't belong in this game, nor do they even belong on the same field as Oregon. But the rules are the rules, and the Ducks will have a nice chance to run some sprints down the Autzen Stadium sideline with the football in hand before giving way to their second-teamers at some point in the 4th quarter. You can't make this spread too big. You really can't.

LSU (-13.5) over Georgia (neutral site - Georgia Dome)
If this game weren't a quasi-home game for the Bulldogs, LSU would probably be a favorite by 16 or 17. That's no insult to Georgia, who has won 10 in a row and made everyone forget about Mark Richt supposedly being on the hot seat going into this season. LSU is just on another level. Their defense does not stop flying at you and the offense and special teams seem to take advantage of any little mistake their opponent makes. The Tigers have been put through the gauntlet this year and are still standing at 12-0. Expect a close game after two or three quarters (take Georgia for the halftime line, any of you gambling degenerates out there), but like they have against Arkansas and West Virginia, LSU will pull away late.

Virginia Tech (-7) over Clemson (neutral site - Bank of America Stadium)
These are not the same two teams that met on October 1st, which was a 23-3 win for Clemson. The Hokies have gotten stronger at the right time while the Tigers are, well, in the words of Dennis Green, "what we thought they were." Frankly, I don't see why this line is single digits. Another year, another ACC title won in Charlotte for Virginia Tech.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-3) over Oklahoma
Bedlam will most likely be the best game of the weekend, despite being merely a regular season game and not a conference title game. OK State has not beaten Oklahoma since 2002, and if they don't do it this year, then they may never do it. The Cowboys' sloppiness on offense against Iowa State will spell doom against Oklahoma if they repeat it. I don't think, however, that people put enough stock in the fact that Oklahoma State has just suffered the tragedy of another plane crash within its athletic department on the very day that they lost to Iowa State. This should sure be fun to watch however it unfolds, as the winner may very well be the last team to have the ball.

Michigan State (+10) over Wisconsin (neutral site - Lucas Oil Stadium)
Can anyone tell me why, at a neutral site, this line is this high? I know Wisconsin has appeared to return to its early-season form in the past few weeks, but 10 points? To a Michigan State team who is 10-2 themselves and happened to beat Wisconsin (albeit on a Hail Mary) earlier this season? I know that Wisconsin's running game resembles a fleet of bulldozers on the right day, but both of these teams play good enough defense to keep this game relatively low-scoring. I'll take the points all day and all night.

Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 28-35-2

5 for Sunday

A lot of big spreads out there this week, thanks to injuries accumulating throughout the league and the simple economics of betting against the several flat-out terrible teams in the NFL. From the looks of the remainder of Week 12, the best football of the weekend likely took place on Thursday. Home teams in CAPS.

NY JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Wait, both of these teams are 5-5? Could have fooled me. Ordinarily it would be insane to give up this many points with the Jets, but Buffalo is in an all-out free fall and now will be playing without Fred Jackson for the rest of the season. If Darrelle Revis locks up on Stevie Johnson, how will the Bills score at all? This is purely a bet against Buffalo, for whom the clock struck midnight three weeks ago.

ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
All you need to know about this game is that Adrian Peterson is doubtful with the high ankle sprain suffered in last week's loss to Oakland. I still don't think Atlanta is a very good team, but they are arguably an ill-advised 4th down call in overtime away from being on a 5-game winning streak, and their strong run defense figures to be even stronger without AP on the field for the Vikings. Fun fact? This is the seventh straight game that the Falcons have played in a dome.

Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
It really says something when a 2-8 team is a 3.5 point favorite on the road, but that is the point that the 2011 Indianapolis Colts have reached. The Panthers jumped out to a big early lead on Detroit last week, only to blow it in giving up a total of 49 points. Should Carolina put up anything resembling the first half they played against the Lions, then you can turn the lights out on Indy once again. The Colts have not scored more than 10 points in a game since October 16.

Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO















NEW ORLEANS (-7) over NY Giants (Monday Night)
I guess nobody ever woke the Giants up and told them how important their game against the Eagles was last week. Their offense was never in sync, their defense let Vince Young go on an 18-play drive to win the game, and Brandon Jacobs thought the result was a good opportunity to bad-mouth his team's fans. The Saints will have had 15 days of rest coming into this Monday Nighter in the Superdome, where they are 4-0 (straight up as well as ATS) this year. Should Ahmad Bradshaw miss yet another game for the Giants, their running game woes will only get worse.

Last Week: 1-3-1
Season: 24-26-5

Cinq Pour Samedi

Some of the biggest rivalries in the land will be renewed over the next few days, so if you can't get at least some enjoyment from college football this weekend, then you don't have a pulse. Either way, a hell of a weekend of football is ahead of us, and if we get games that are half as good as they were last week with the matchups on tap for this week, then we'll remember this weekend for a long time to come. Not to mention, we could be facing an excruciating BCS debate where the top 3 teams could all be from the SEC West. Home teams in CAPS.

Arkansas (+12.5) over LSU (Friday afternoon)

Tough to see the Tigers losing, but this seems like it's just too many points to give. Arkansas has gone almost unnoticed in its rise to the #3 ranking, and they have a chance to blow the BCS picture up completely with a win in Baton Rouge on Black Friday, just like the Darren McFadden/Felix Jones-led team did in 2007. Despite the overrated Bobby Petrino being the Razorbacks' coach, I like their chances of giving LSU all they can handle.

WEST VIRGINIA (-7) over Pittsburgh (Friday night)
Which Mountaineers team will show up? West Virginia has looked excellent at times this year, and less than pedestrian at other times. You have to think they come out swinging in the Backyard Brawl at home, but the money must have come in hard on Pitt this week since the line opened at 10.5. That opens my eye a bit, but West Virginia can be tough to stop on their fast track at home, so I'll grit my teeth and lay the points against a see-sawing, mediocre Pitt team.

MICHIGAN (-7.5) over Ohio State
Can the tables finally be turned this year? Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State since 2003, but this year they boast the defense that has been, for the most part, sorely lacking over that 8-year drought. The Buckeyes are especially weak this year on offense, which isn't much of a surprise. Will this be close at halftime? Extremely likely. But eventually Ohio State will run out of solutions for the versatility of Michigan's offense, and once the Wolverines get up by 10 or more, you can say goodnight.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-3.5) over Clemson
Well, it was fun while it lasted for Clemson, who got beaten badly last week by NC State and seem light years away from their 8-0 start. South Carolina has handled things as well as team that kicked its quarterback off the team in Week 6 and lost its star running back in Week 7 could possibly handle things, thanks largely to their strong defense. We'll see if the book is truly out on Tajh Boyd, as the Gamecocks' defense is especially suffocating at home.

STANFORD (-7) over Notre Dame
I've been going back and forth on this game all week. Neither the Irish nor the Cardinal looked impressive last week in close victories over Boston College and Cal, respectively. Since I've done terribly with these late West Coast games this year, I thought of going against my gut and taking Notre Dame. But I can't shake the idea that this game is still the men vs. the boys. Has Notre Dame done anything to make you confident that they can travel out west and beat a team like Stanford, who will likely be in their last pre-Heisman showcase for Andrew Luck? Not helping matters for the Irish is last week's injury to RB Jonas Gray. Overall I don't think the Irish will have enough answers for the Stanford offense, to the tune of something like 35-21.

Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 26-30-2

5 for the Weekend

3-2 Last week puts me at 31-29 on the season.

Friday

Arkansas (+12.5) @ LSU 2:30 CBS

Well the majority of these games have been close and I'm betting that this one wont be different. Arkansas will battle for 4 quarters as they have so much to play for. LSU by 10.

Saturday

Alabama (-21) @ Auburn 3:30 CBS

Penn State (+15) @ Wisconsin

*****Lou pinch-hitting for Kevin here for the remainder of the column, as he is on a pilgrimage to Ann Arbor this weekend. I assure you that the remaining two picks are his.*****

Michigan (-8) over Ohio State

Virginia (+5) over Virginia Tech


Come on, you guys really didn't think he was taking OSU, did you?

5 for Saturday

4-1 Last week and for the third consecutive week has put me above .500 for the first time all year.  28-27 on the season.

Nebraska @ Michigan (-2.5) Noon ESPN

Well these two teams are very evenly matched on paper.  Running QBs with questionable arms.  Some talent on both sides of the ball but little depth.  I feel like this game is a toss up and as a Michigan fan I badly want next weeks game more so I'll make that deal right now.  Take the home team when teams are evenly matched.  While both teams are unlikely to get a crack at the divisional title, they can put themselves on the cusp of a BCS game with two straight wins.

SMU @ Houston (-19.5) 3:30 FSN

College Gameday comes to Houston where they are selling out there third game of the season.

Kansas State (+9.5) @ Texas 8PM FX

Is Texas even better than Kansas State?  I might eat those words but I will take my chances with the spread at 9.5.  Bill Synder is a freaking genius and its remarkable how what he has done in his second stint at K State.  Mack Brown's squad is still struggling after last years debacle and are still a year away from being Texas again.

Oklahoma (-15.5) @ Baylor 8PM ABC/ESPN Gameplan

USC @ Oregon (-15.5) ABC/ESPN Gameplan

5 for Sunday

After somehow pulling a winning week out of my you-know-where in Week 10, I'm back to .500 on the nose with seven weeks to go in the regular season. Not the prettiest slate of games scheduled for Week 11, but hey, play the hand you're dealt. Home teams in CAPS.

Carolina (+7) over DETROIT
Both of these teams threw up absolute turds last week, but I'm willing to give Carolina a pass for their loss to the Titans because Chris Johnson morphed back into Chris Johnson all of a sudden. After all, the Panthers aren't supposed to be very good. The Lions appear to be in free fall, and cannot keep Matthew Stafford or any of their running backs healthy for any extended period of time. It would make sense for Detroit to try to be very aggressive in getting after Cam Newton, but I think Newton's raw play-making ability may show itself if the Lions get too greedy on defense.

Dallas (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
So many things about this game are screaming at me to stay away, but there just aren't enough decent games this week to avoid my usual homer pick here. I really think this is too many points to give, especially when you see that the Cowboys have beaten the Redskins by 8 or more just once in their past ten meetings. But Dallas has been so tough to stop on offense in the past month (not counting the blowout at the hands of the Eagles in Week 8, where the Cowboys fell behind so quickly that their normal offense was moot) that an objective observer would figure them to have little problem taking care of business at FedEx Field. The Redskins seem to get worse every week and have now switched back to Rex Grossman at quarterback. That fact plus Washington's sore lack of receiving threats outside of TE Fred Davis makes you forget that Dallas is still missing its top cornerback in Mike Jenkins. If things go as they should, it will be another banner day for the rookie DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys improve to 6-4 without giving me a heart attack.

Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Yankees radio play-by-play man John Sterling must love the Baltimore Ravens, because ya just can't predict them, Suzyn. How can a team that just got trounced by Seattle be 2-0 against Pittsburgh? When you look at the Ravens' last four games as a whole, huge red flags pop up about their offense. The Bengals are right in the thick of the AFC North race and played the Steelers very tough last week. One interesting note: that 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh was the Bengals' largest margin of defeat all year. Cincy is without AJ Green, but Baltimore will likely be playing sans Ray Lewis for the first time in four years. A full touchdown is just too many to lay with the Ravens right now, and the Bengals do tend to play close games so I'll take my chances plus the points.

GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay
Not that it really really matters because you can pencil Aaron Rodgers in for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns basically every week, but should Green Bay find any lack of smoothness at all in their passing game, they have the Bucs' miserable, 6.1-yards-per-carry run defense to feast upon. And Josh Freeman, who has hit bit of a wall this year for Tampa, won't be the one to expose the Packers defense enough to beat them. It's becoming a bit of a cop-out to simply take the Packers every week, but at this point how can you not? They're simply that good.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego
This line seems about 2 points too low - and God bless you if you were able to get it when it opened at 2.5. What could possibly possess someone to put money on the Chargers right now? Philip Rivers has been an interception machine this year, the team has lost 4 in a row, and now they must come east (again) to play in what may be less-than-ideal conditions in a late afternoon game at Soldier Field. The Bears have come on very strong in the past month and are still flying under the radar a bit thanks to the unstoppable Packers. Consider this game another nail in the coffin of Norv Turner's job.

Last Week : 3-2-0
Season: 23-23-4