In an odd twist, the Super Bowl hype hasn't been nearly as tiring as expected this year, despite the standard Eli/Peyton/Brady/Coughlin/Belichick/rematch/revenge/Gronkowski's ankle/Bibi Jones storylines still being beaten to a pulp. Somehow another football season has come and gone, and the only thing left to determine is who gets to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Indianapolis. At the very least, we should be in for a close game, if not a very good game. After fighting with myself for two weeks over this, the pick is in....
NY Giants (+3) over New England
From a personal standpoint, I have a tough time rooting for the team who single-handedly eliminated mine. However, I would have an even tougher time rooting for a team based in the greater Boston area. Geographical and baseball-related loyalties aside, I truly think that from a football perspective this game is there for the Giants' taking. Overall they do more things well than the Patriots do, and their trio of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Victor Cruz can only be covered for so long by the patchwork New England defensive backfield. The Pats can try to blitz Eli Manning, but he is at his best when under pressure, something that the 49ers found out two weeks ago and the Patriots certainly know by now. Both of these teams make their living on the quick passing game and yards after the catch, which, in light of the way the rules are enforced in the league today, makes it no coincidence that they have each come this far. That being said, you wonder how much the Patriots truly lose due to Rob Gronkowski's high ankle sprain, considering that Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker can easily catch 10 passes each without a healthy Gronkowski on the field. Both of these teams present matchup problems for the defense, but the difference lies in the Giants' ability to rush the passer without blitzing. If the Giants can rush four men and keep seven linebackers and defensive backs to cover Brady's receiving options, then this will be their day, yet again. Giants, 24-20.
Showing posts with label 5 for Sunday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 5 for Sunday. Show all posts
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Conference Championships
The beginning of the end of the football season has two fairly intriguing matchups, fortunately only accompanied by one week of speculation and hype. Savor it everyone, because after this weekend the football season is essentially over, since the Super Bowl and all it entails often leaves the game lost in the mix. On another note, after last week's 0-fer, I really suck. Home teams in CAPS.
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Baltimore
I violated one of my biggest rules on Divisional weekend, and that is I bet with my heart and not with my head. While I really want the Ravens to pull this sucker out and leave all the Chowderheads out there counting down until April. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that the AFC Championship will play out this way. Had the Ravens not been facing TJ Yates last week, they could have easily lost their game to the Texans. While the New England defense won't present the challenge that Houston's did, I don't know that Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense has enough (outside of Ray Rice) to expose the Pats' D to the extent that it is going to need to. On the other side of the ball, what more really needs to be said about Tom Brady and his treasure chest of targets? While the Ravens' aging defense still has plenty of punch to it, and I'd be shocked if New England throws up another 40-spot, I just think Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, etc. are too good. Patriots (with a grimace), 27-17.
NY Giants (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Another instance of having to overcome my biases and rooting interests. Last week I couldn't see past the fact that the Giants eliminated my own team, and picked against them even though my writeup on the game ended up outlining just how good a chance they had against Green Bay. The most interesting part of this game is that neither the Giants nor the 49ers will make the mistakes that played a large part in allowing both of them to advance last week. San Francisco tackles extremely well and plays a much more disciplined brand of defense than the Packers did. Can you imagine the 49ers having the type of breakdowns that led to both of the touchdowns scored by Hakeem Nicks at Lambeau? Neither can I. On the other end, Alex Smith brought the 49ers down the field twice in the last four minutes to overcome the Saints, thanks largely to New Orleans selling out on blitzes when it really wasn't necessary. The Giants have proved that they can get to your QB with their front four and don't need to get blitz-happy. So something has to give. And what will that be? Well, long story short, Eli Manning is too tough to bet against right now, especially if you figure the game to be close late. Top to bottom, the Giants are probably a little bit better of a team, so I'll take the better team and a few points any day. Giants, 24-20.
Last Week (avert your eyes): 0-4-0
Postseason: 2-6-0
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Baltimore
I violated one of my biggest rules on Divisional weekend, and that is I bet with my heart and not with my head. While I really want the Ravens to pull this sucker out and leave all the Chowderheads out there counting down until April. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that the AFC Championship will play out this way. Had the Ravens not been facing TJ Yates last week, they could have easily lost their game to the Texans. While the New England defense won't present the challenge that Houston's did, I don't know that Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense has enough (outside of Ray Rice) to expose the Pats' D to the extent that it is going to need to. On the other side of the ball, what more really needs to be said about Tom Brady and his treasure chest of targets? While the Ravens' aging defense still has plenty of punch to it, and I'd be shocked if New England throws up another 40-spot, I just think Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, etc. are too good. Patriots (with a grimace), 27-17.
NY Giants (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Another instance of having to overcome my biases and rooting interests. Last week I couldn't see past the fact that the Giants eliminated my own team, and picked against them even though my writeup on the game ended up outlining just how good a chance they had against Green Bay. The most interesting part of this game is that neither the Giants nor the 49ers will make the mistakes that played a large part in allowing both of them to advance last week. San Francisco tackles extremely well and plays a much more disciplined brand of defense than the Packers did. Can you imagine the 49ers having the type of breakdowns that led to both of the touchdowns scored by Hakeem Nicks at Lambeau? Neither can I. On the other end, Alex Smith brought the 49ers down the field twice in the last four minutes to overcome the Saints, thanks largely to New Orleans selling out on blitzes when it really wasn't necessary. The Giants have proved that they can get to your QB with their front four and don't need to get blitz-happy. So something has to give. And what will that be? Well, long story short, Eli Manning is too tough to bet against right now, especially if you figure the game to be close late. Top to bottom, the Giants are probably a little bit better of a team, so I'll take the better team and a few points any day. Giants, 24-20.
Last Week (avert your eyes): 0-4-0
Postseason: 2-6-0
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Divisional Weekend
The last great football weekend of the season brings a sad reality that the Winter Doldrums are lurking just a few weeks away. Until then, home teams in CAPS.
New Orleans (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
I don't care that this game is outdoors. I don't care that this game is on grass. I don't care that the playing surface at Candlestick Park is often less than optimal. I don't care that the 49ers had a bye week. I don't care how good San Fran's defense is. I don't care how susceptible to the run the Saints' defense can be. The Saints are the better team in this game. If they were the typical dome team who can't run the ball or play in elements (although, for the record, 62 degrees and sunny in the Bay Area for game time), that would be one thing. But New Orleans can run the ball almost as well as they throw it, and you can't tell me the Saints are being held under 24 points in this game. You could line the '76 Steelers up against this Saints offense and they'd still manage to get into the mid-twenties. They'd probably even get 21 off of the '85 Bears. The 49ers have had a great year, but if they ask Alex Smith to match touchdowns with Drew Brees, that's just asking too much. Saints, 24-16.
Denver (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND
It's Christ against the anti-Christ in Tim Tebow vs. Bill Belichick and the evil-machine Patriots. These teams met in Week 15 in Denver, a game that the Broncos controlled before turning the ball over to the Patriots and their automatic-30-point offense like it was a bodily function. The weather will be cold but clear in Foxborough, which should allow the Pats' passing game to operate cleanly, albeit against a sturdy Broncos defense that may keep New England from reaching their usual totals of points and yardage. No one in the world will expect the Denver offense to watch wits with that of New England, but the Patriots defense is beyond soft and will allow Tebow to do enough of the Lord's Work up and down the field the keep this game competitive. Patriots, 28-17.
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston
The Texans have made their mark and won their opening playoff game, which is all anyone could have asked of them. Meanwhile, the Ravens, who are 8-0 at home this year, have been sitting back and licking their chops in preparation for this game. More than a touchdown is a lot of points to give up with a Baltimore team that doesn't score like the Saints, Patriots, or Packers do. However, Ray Rice should be able to find enough holes in the Houston defense, and as long as the Ravens merely play their game they should minimize any threat presented by the Texans. If the Ravens are meant to go anywhere at all this year, they win this game handily. Ravens, 20-10.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over NY Giants
This was the toughest game of the week to make a selection on. The Giants have all the momentum you could possibly want, while the Packers have been the league's world-beaters all season. Much has been made of the Green Bay defense and its susceptibility to a pounding running game and big plays over the top. However, that only occurs when the Packers have a big lead or if the opponent has a lead that they are trying to grind out. I don't put too much stock into the layoff that Aaron Rodgers and his offense have had since clinching the NFC's top seed. What I do put stock into is the return of Greg Jennings to the Pack's already-lethal passing game. Eli Manning will get the ball down the field plenty to his deep WR corps, leaving it up to the Green Bay defense to force a mistake or two (paging Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson) in order to make the difference. Can the Giants come up with enough big plays on defense to keep themselves in the game? If their front four can get to Rodgers enough, then they certainly can. However, I think that the Packers will be ready for the challenge presented by the Giants' pass rush and will adjust their attack accordingly. Packers, 38-28.
Last Week: 2-2-0
New Orleans (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
I don't care that this game is outdoors. I don't care that this game is on grass. I don't care that the playing surface at Candlestick Park is often less than optimal. I don't care that the 49ers had a bye week. I don't care how good San Fran's defense is. I don't care how susceptible to the run the Saints' defense can be. The Saints are the better team in this game. If they were the typical dome team who can't run the ball or play in elements (although, for the record, 62 degrees and sunny in the Bay Area for game time), that would be one thing. But New Orleans can run the ball almost as well as they throw it, and you can't tell me the Saints are being held under 24 points in this game. You could line the '76 Steelers up against this Saints offense and they'd still manage to get into the mid-twenties. They'd probably even get 21 off of the '85 Bears. The 49ers have had a great year, but if they ask Alex Smith to match touchdowns with Drew Brees, that's just asking too much. Saints, 24-16.
Denver (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND
It's Christ against the anti-Christ in Tim Tebow vs. Bill Belichick and the evil-machine Patriots. These teams met in Week 15 in Denver, a game that the Broncos controlled before turning the ball over to the Patriots and their automatic-30-point offense like it was a bodily function. The weather will be cold but clear in Foxborough, which should allow the Pats' passing game to operate cleanly, albeit against a sturdy Broncos defense that may keep New England from reaching their usual totals of points and yardage. No one in the world will expect the Denver offense to watch wits with that of New England, but the Patriots defense is beyond soft and will allow Tebow to do enough of the Lord's Work up and down the field the keep this game competitive. Patriots, 28-17.
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston
The Texans have made their mark and won their opening playoff game, which is all anyone could have asked of them. Meanwhile, the Ravens, who are 8-0 at home this year, have been sitting back and licking their chops in preparation for this game. More than a touchdown is a lot of points to give up with a Baltimore team that doesn't score like the Saints, Patriots, or Packers do. However, Ray Rice should be able to find enough holes in the Houston defense, and as long as the Ravens merely play their game they should minimize any threat presented by the Texans. If the Ravens are meant to go anywhere at all this year, they win this game handily. Ravens, 20-10.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over NY Giants
This was the toughest game of the week to make a selection on. The Giants have all the momentum you could possibly want, while the Packers have been the league's world-beaters all season. Much has been made of the Green Bay defense and its susceptibility to a pounding running game and big plays over the top. However, that only occurs when the Packers have a big lead or if the opponent has a lead that they are trying to grind out. I don't put too much stock into the layoff that Aaron Rodgers and his offense have had since clinching the NFC's top seed. What I do put stock into is the return of Greg Jennings to the Pack's already-lethal passing game. Eli Manning will get the ball down the field plenty to his deep WR corps, leaving it up to the Green Bay defense to force a mistake or two (paging Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson) in order to make the difference. Can the Giants come up with enough big plays on defense to keep themselves in the game? If their front four can get to Rodgers enough, then they certainly can. However, I think that the Packers will be ready for the challenge presented by the Giants' pass rush and will adjust their attack accordingly. Packers, 38-28.
Last Week: 2-2-0
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Wild Card Weekend
Arguably the year's best weekend of football, Wild Card Weekend never seems to fail. This year it gives us two very intriguing games and two other games that would be complete shockers if the underdog were to win outright. After 17 Weeks of regular season football that saw passing yards pile up more quickly than Greece's budget deficit, get used to see more of the same in the playoffs. Home teams in CAPS.
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Cincinnati
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the return of Wade Phillips to the Texans' sideline this week should be the difference maker. Ol' Wade takes back the reigns of the formidable Houston defense that he transformed this year, which should only make matters more difficult for Cincy rookie QB Andy Dalton facing a fired-up Reliant Stadium crowd in the franchise's first ever postseason game. Does that mean I'm picking T.J. Yates to win a playoff game? Well, all I'm doing is picking him to not lose it. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson should provide enough offense to keep this one out of the reach of the Bengals, who did not beat a winning team all season.
Detroit (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS
The more I think about this pick, the less I like it. But I'm going with my gut here because the points, especially with the hook, are too many to pass up. Detroit's defense is something out of the original Tecmo Bowl video game - if you don't sack the quarterback, you're giving up a big play. Despite an embarrassing barrage of dirty plays and personal fouls, the Lions hung around with the Saints in the teams' Week 12 meeting, a game for which Ndamukong Suh had been suspended. It's no question whether or not the Saints will put up a ton of points, it's just a matter of how long the Lions will be able to get the ball downfield and keep up. My prediction is that the Saints settle for a few more field goals than normal, they score "only" 38 points, and the Lions add a late TD to make the final score 38-30.
Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS
Neither of these teams are great, but the Falcons are more consistent overall. Giants backers and media members keep conjuring up thoughts of 2007 - but what does that team have to do with this one? Well, the Giants do have a lethal pass rush, but their secondary is still very vulnerable down the field, which is where Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and Roddy White will have to play key roles for Atlanta. The Falcons need to find a way to contain Victor Cruz in the open field and keep Hakeem Nicks from getting deep. It would go a long way for Atlanta if they can do so, because otherwise the Giants have, statistically, the worst rushing offense in the league. And before anyone gets all crazy about a dome team playing in winter weather, the forecast for this game is sunny and a relatively mild 45 degrees. Another note? Yes, day games, and especially daytime playoff games, are typically when the older, calmer set of Giants fans use their tickets, so don't be shocked if the Metlife Stadium crowd is less raucous then expected.
DENVER (+9) over Pittsburgh
Thanks to the overall ineptitude of the AFC West, CBS gets to broadcast another Tim Tebow game to all of America, and we get to wonder "is anyone going to score in this game?" The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger banged up and now have Rashard Mendenhall on IR, plus they lose safety Ryan Clark for this game due to his sickle cell condition preventing him from playing at Denver's altitude. When Denver has the ball....well, we all know plenty about the trials and tribulations of that offense in the past two months. I highly doubt that the Broncos will pull this game out, but think their crowd can help keep them in it for a good while. 17 points will be plenty to win this one, but I just can't see the Steelers' defense allowing more than one touchdown drive to Tebow. Let's say a final of 17-10, with Pittsburgh winning a real black-and-blue matchup.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Regular Season: 36-42-7
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Cincinnati
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the return of Wade Phillips to the Texans' sideline this week should be the difference maker. Ol' Wade takes back the reigns of the formidable Houston defense that he transformed this year, which should only make matters more difficult for Cincy rookie QB Andy Dalton facing a fired-up Reliant Stadium crowd in the franchise's first ever postseason game. Does that mean I'm picking T.J. Yates to win a playoff game? Well, all I'm doing is picking him to not lose it. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson should provide enough offense to keep this one out of the reach of the Bengals, who did not beat a winning team all season.
Detroit (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS
The more I think about this pick, the less I like it. But I'm going with my gut here because the points, especially with the hook, are too many to pass up. Detroit's defense is something out of the original Tecmo Bowl video game - if you don't sack the quarterback, you're giving up a big play. Despite an embarrassing barrage of dirty plays and personal fouls, the Lions hung around with the Saints in the teams' Week 12 meeting, a game for which Ndamukong Suh had been suspended. It's no question whether or not the Saints will put up a ton of points, it's just a matter of how long the Lions will be able to get the ball downfield and keep up. My prediction is that the Saints settle for a few more field goals than normal, they score "only" 38 points, and the Lions add a late TD to make the final score 38-30.
Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS
Neither of these teams are great, but the Falcons are more consistent overall. Giants backers and media members keep conjuring up thoughts of 2007 - but what does that team have to do with this one? Well, the Giants do have a lethal pass rush, but their secondary is still very vulnerable down the field, which is where Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and Roddy White will have to play key roles for Atlanta. The Falcons need to find a way to contain Victor Cruz in the open field and keep Hakeem Nicks from getting deep. It would go a long way for Atlanta if they can do so, because otherwise the Giants have, statistically, the worst rushing offense in the league. And before anyone gets all crazy about a dome team playing in winter weather, the forecast for this game is sunny and a relatively mild 45 degrees. Another note? Yes, day games, and especially daytime playoff games, are typically when the older, calmer set of Giants fans use their tickets, so don't be shocked if the Metlife Stadium crowd is less raucous then expected.
DENVER (+9) over Pittsburgh
Thanks to the overall ineptitude of the AFC West, CBS gets to broadcast another Tim Tebow game to all of America, and we get to wonder "is anyone going to score in this game?" The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger banged up and now have Rashard Mendenhall on IR, plus they lose safety Ryan Clark for this game due to his sickle cell condition preventing him from playing at Denver's altitude. When Denver has the ball....well, we all know plenty about the trials and tribulations of that offense in the past two months. I highly doubt that the Broncos will pull this game out, but think their crowd can help keep them in it for a good while. 17 points will be plenty to win this one, but I just can't see the Steelers' defense allowing more than one touchdown drive to Tebow. Let's say a final of 17-10, with Pittsburgh winning a real black-and-blue matchup.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Regular Season: 36-42-7
Sunday, January 1, 2012
5 for Sunday
Week 17 has arrived, and with it my last half-ass column of the regular season. Due to no one wanting to stare at a computer screen and worsen their New Year's hangover (or a smart phone screen for that matter, but if you're reading this blog on your phone then may God seriously bless you), this week's picks will be explained in one sentence each. I promise that actual game handicaps will return for the playoffs starting next week. Home teams in CAPS.
Tennessee (-1) over HOUSTON
Because the Titans have something to play for and the Texans are merely trying not to further injure themselves.
San Francisco (-12.5) over ST. LOUIS
Because the Rams have tee times on their mind and the 49ers need to win to secure the #2 seed and a bye.
Detroit (+6.5) over GREEN BAY
Because Matt Flynn will start in place of Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions need to win to avoid a trip to New Orleans for Wild Card Weekend.
Kansas City (+2) over DENVER
Because if 2011 may have been the Year of Tebow, according to the Chinese, 2012 is the Year of the Neckbeard.
Dallas (+3) over NY GIANTS
Because despite the extreme lack of confidence that I have in the Cowboys, Felix Jones will benefit from what was essentially a week off in Week 16 and after watching the Giants bumble around with the Jets last week for 3 and a half quarters, I just cannot imagine Dallas losing to those two teams a combined three times in one season.
Last Week: 1-4-0
Season: 34-40-6
Tennessee (-1) over HOUSTON
Because the Titans have something to play for and the Texans are merely trying not to further injure themselves.
San Francisco (-12.5) over ST. LOUIS
Because the Rams have tee times on their mind and the 49ers need to win to secure the #2 seed and a bye.
Detroit (+6.5) over GREEN BAY
Because Matt Flynn will start in place of Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions need to win to avoid a trip to New Orleans for Wild Card Weekend.
Kansas City (+2) over DENVER
Because if 2011 may have been the Year of Tebow, according to the Chinese, 2012 is the Year of the Neckbeard.
Dallas (+3) over NY GIANTS
Because despite the extreme lack of confidence that I have in the Cowboys, Felix Jones will benefit from what was essentially a week off in Week 16 and after watching the Giants bumble around with the Jets last week for 3 and a half quarters, I just cannot imagine Dallas losing to those two teams a combined three times in one season.
Last Week: 1-4-0
Season: 34-40-6
Friday, December 23, 2011
5 for Sunday (Christmas Eve Edition)
Winter is officially here, fantasy leagues are in their championship weeks, everyone is hustling to get those last-minute gifts, and our Jewish friends everywhere are planning out their annual Chinese-food-and-movies day. What else? Oh yeah, it's Christmas, and the NFL has a full Sunday's slate of games taking place this Saturday, Christmas Eve. And since this is the season of bonuses (hopefully all of my fellow office-dwellers out there were made happy in that regard), I'll be comparing each game to a certain facet of the Christmas holiday. Home teams in CAPS.
NY JETS (-3) over NY Giants - Opening the Presents
Since this is part of the first set of games for Saturday, and is clearly the most hyped, the quadrennial (yeah I looked that word up) New York meeting has the clearest counterpart of all: the presents. People have been looking forward to this game since the schedule unveiling, and just like with Christmas presents, it will leave people either extremely delighted or terribly disappointed. The winner of this game stays alive in the playoff hunt, and the loser will be all but done. At the end of the day (CAUTION: Antrel Rolle tweak ahead), the Jets play very well at home and should have the favorable balance of the crowd on their side, while the Giants are three Cowboys mistakes away from being on a 6-game losing streak. The real difference is that the Jets are capable of ratcheting up a good defensive performance when they wake up on the right side of the bed, while the Giants don't have the bodies or the cohesiveness on defense to be trusted.
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Miami - Reading Christmas Cards
You say this one's a formality, right? Well, it is. That's why this game is equivalent to reading Christmas cards. To be courteous, you have to read the card before opening the gifts, but 90% of the time you just glance at the thing for 12 seconds until you can attack the wrapping paper. And while in many cases people spend a good deal of time and effort picking out just the right card and writing just the right thing inside, there's no two ways around the fact that it's still a mere card. Similarly, the Dolphins will put up a solid effort in Foxboro, but the outcome will still boil down to the fact that the Patriots are a significantly better team who does not stop scoring. Close early, lopsided late.
Arizona (+4) over CINCINNATI - Spending Time with Family
You know how not every part of the holidays is full of fun? That's this game. It will very likely not be pretty between the Cards and Bengals, much like how you typically just have to grin and bear it through Christmas family gatherings. And how do you get through what can be several agonizing hours, or even several agonizing days? By doing the prudent thing - you say "please" and "thank you," you offer help when needed, and you try your absolute best at the small talk. How do you get through this ugly game between surging Arizona and boring Cincinnati? By taking the points, of course!
San Diego (+2.5) over DETROIT - 24 Hours of A Christmas Story
Some things about the holidays are so nicely tried and true that I honestly hope they never change. One of them is the fact that A Christmas Story gets run on TV for 24 hours in a row. Another December rite is the strong late-season play of the San Diego Chargers, who are so sadly stricken with Norv Turner Syndrome for the first three months of the season. Now that Philip Rivers is no longer an interception machine, it's irresistible to take the Bolts plus points against a team that they are at least even with, if not better than. I still don't buy the Lions and don't see another miraculous comeback materializing on Saturday.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Atlanta (Monday Night) - The Mall on Dec. 26th
There are some places that are just horrifying to try to invade. The Superdome on the night of a primetime game is one of them. Another one is the mall on the day after Christmas. Yet neither the Falcons (because they're in the same division) nor the average American gentile (because they never learn their lesson) can avoid this fate year after year. Expect the scoreboard to be lit up on Monday night (ever so conveniently for this analogy, the night after Christmas), but in the end the Saints have the quick-strike ability that the Falcons have yet to master. With Drew Brees just 305 yards away from breaking Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record of 5,084 (which he very nearly broke in 2008), a Saints victory by something like 34-24 sounds about right.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 33-36-6
NY JETS (-3) over NY Giants - Opening the Presents
Since this is part of the first set of games for Saturday, and is clearly the most hyped, the quadrennial (yeah I looked that word up) New York meeting has the clearest counterpart of all: the presents. People have been looking forward to this game since the schedule unveiling, and just like with Christmas presents, it will leave people either extremely delighted or terribly disappointed. The winner of this game stays alive in the playoff hunt, and the loser will be all but done. At the end of the day (CAUTION: Antrel Rolle tweak ahead), the Jets play very well at home and should have the favorable balance of the crowd on their side, while the Giants are three Cowboys mistakes away from being on a 6-game losing streak. The real difference is that the Jets are capable of ratcheting up a good defensive performance when they wake up on the right side of the bed, while the Giants don't have the bodies or the cohesiveness on defense to be trusted.
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Miami - Reading Christmas Cards
You say this one's a formality, right? Well, it is. That's why this game is equivalent to reading Christmas cards. To be courteous, you have to read the card before opening the gifts, but 90% of the time you just glance at the thing for 12 seconds until you can attack the wrapping paper. And while in many cases people spend a good deal of time and effort picking out just the right card and writing just the right thing inside, there's no two ways around the fact that it's still a mere card. Similarly, the Dolphins will put up a solid effort in Foxboro, but the outcome will still boil down to the fact that the Patriots are a significantly better team who does not stop scoring. Close early, lopsided late.
Arizona (+4) over CINCINNATI - Spending Time with Family
You know how not every part of the holidays is full of fun? That's this game. It will very likely not be pretty between the Cards and Bengals, much like how you typically just have to grin and bear it through Christmas family gatherings. And how do you get through what can be several agonizing hours, or even several agonizing days? By doing the prudent thing - you say "please" and "thank you," you offer help when needed, and you try your absolute best at the small talk. How do you get through this ugly game between surging Arizona and boring Cincinnati? By taking the points, of course!
San Diego (+2.5) over DETROIT - 24 Hours of A Christmas Story
Some things about the holidays are so nicely tried and true that I honestly hope they never change. One of them is the fact that A Christmas Story gets run on TV for 24 hours in a row. Another December rite is the strong late-season play of the San Diego Chargers, who are so sadly stricken with Norv Turner Syndrome for the first three months of the season. Now that Philip Rivers is no longer an interception machine, it's irresistible to take the Bolts plus points against a team that they are at least even with, if not better than. I still don't buy the Lions and don't see another miraculous comeback materializing on Saturday.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Atlanta (Monday Night) - The Mall on Dec. 26th
There are some places that are just horrifying to try to invade. The Superdome on the night of a primetime game is one of them. Another one is the mall on the day after Christmas. Yet neither the Falcons (because they're in the same division) nor the average American gentile (because they never learn their lesson) can avoid this fate year after year. Expect the scoreboard to be lit up on Monday night (ever so conveniently for this analogy, the night after Christmas), but in the end the Saints have the quick-strike ability that the Falcons have yet to master. With Drew Brees just 305 yards away from breaking Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record of 5,084 (which he very nearly broke in 2008), a Saints victory by something like 34-24 sounds about right.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 33-36-6
Saturday, December 17, 2011
5 for Sunday (A Photo Essay)
Nobody wants to actually read during this time of year, what with all the shopping, wrapping, party-attending, imbibing and Christmas movie-watching that there is to be done. Plus, after last week, my words are about the equivalent of dog excrement on a computer screen, so this week will be a mere photo essay with one picture describing why I'm taking each game whatever way I'm taking it. Home teams in CAPS.
Dallas (-7) over TAMPA BAY (Saturday Night)
Green Bay (-13.5) over KANSAS CITY
Seattle (+3.5) over CHICAGO
Carolina (+6) over HOUSTON
DENVER (+7.5) over New England
Last Week: 0-4-1
Season: 30-34-6
Dallas (-7) over TAMPA BAY (Saturday Night)
Green Bay (-13.5) over KANSAS CITY
Seattle (+3.5) over CHICAGO
Carolina (+6) over HOUSTON
DENVER (+7.5) over New England
Last Week: 0-4-1
Season: 30-34-6
Sunday, December 11, 2011
5 for Sunday
Well, that was fun while it lasted. Back to .500 on the nose heading into Week 14. Home teams in CAPS.
BALTIMORE (-16.5) over Indianapolis
In what is considered a pretty decent rivalry, would you be surprised if I told you that the Ravens haven't beaten Indy since 2001, a time span consisting of nine meetings between the teams? That streak is highly likely to end right here if the Ravens, who are undefeated at home, play to form. The Colts made things interesting late against the papier maché defense of the Patriots last week, but don't count on that happening in Baltimore this week. Last week was a fluke.
TENNESSEE (+3.5) over New Orleans
The Titans are coming on strong lately, thanks in large part to Chris Johnson's resurgence. The Saints do not play nearly as well on the road as they do at home, and despite their ability to run the ball, their type of game still does not translate to grass the way that it does to turf. I'll take a blind stab with the 3.5 at home for the Titans, because this is a team that is suddenly in the hunt and it could be a field goal game either way.
MIAMI (-3) over Philadelphia
The Dolphins are 4-8 getting better, while the Eagles are 4-8 getting worse. Mike Vick does come back this week, sparing drunk Eagles fans all over the Delaware Valley from passes like this. However, the return of the starting quarterback does not a victory guarantee, especially when the Eagles' defense has been putting on embarrassing displays of tackling for most of the season. The Dolphins are a team that nobody wants to play right now and the only thing they have in common with the team that started 0-7 is their uniforms.
Kansas City (+10.5) over NY JETS
I firmly believe the Jets will win this game, but they have way too many kinks in their offense for me to give up that many points with them. Give Kansas City some credit for the fight that they have shown in the past few weeks when they could have easily folded after losing Matt Cassel. The Chiefs play respectable defense, so I just don't think enough points will be scored in this one to justify anything but taking the underdog. Jets by a 17-10, 14-6 type score.
DENVER (-3) over Chicago
In what could have been the Jay Cutler Bowl, we're left with an early Christmas present instead. Wait a second - Tebowmania and a Broncos team with a ton of momentum is at home against a Bears team that is anemic with Caleb Hanie under center, and all you have to lay is the standard 3 points? Thank you, where do I sign? It's simple: don't kick to Devin Hester, and let God's QB sort things out in the last 5 minutes.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 30-30-5
BALTIMORE (-16.5) over Indianapolis
In what is considered a pretty decent rivalry, would you be surprised if I told you that the Ravens haven't beaten Indy since 2001, a time span consisting of nine meetings between the teams? That streak is highly likely to end right here if the Ravens, who are undefeated at home, play to form. The Colts made things interesting late against the papier maché defense of the Patriots last week, but don't count on that happening in Baltimore this week. Last week was a fluke.
TENNESSEE (+3.5) over New Orleans
The Titans are coming on strong lately, thanks in large part to Chris Johnson's resurgence. The Saints do not play nearly as well on the road as they do at home, and despite their ability to run the ball, their type of game still does not translate to grass the way that it does to turf. I'll take a blind stab with the 3.5 at home for the Titans, because this is a team that is suddenly in the hunt and it could be a field goal game either way.
MIAMI (-3) over Philadelphia
The Dolphins are 4-8 getting better, while the Eagles are 4-8 getting worse. Mike Vick does come back this week, sparing drunk Eagles fans all over the Delaware Valley from passes like this. However, the return of the starting quarterback does not a victory guarantee, especially when the Eagles' defense has been putting on embarrassing displays of tackling for most of the season. The Dolphins are a team that nobody wants to play right now and the only thing they have in common with the team that started 0-7 is their uniforms.
Kansas City (+10.5) over NY JETS
I firmly believe the Jets will win this game, but they have way too many kinks in their offense for me to give up that many points with them. Give Kansas City some credit for the fight that they have shown in the past few weeks when they could have easily folded after losing Matt Cassel. The Chiefs play respectable defense, so I just don't think enough points will be scored in this one to justify anything but taking the underdog. Jets by a 17-10, 14-6 type score.
DENVER (-3) over Chicago
In what could have been the Jay Cutler Bowl, we're left with an early Christmas present instead. Wait a second - Tebowmania and a Broncos team with a ton of momentum is at home against a Bears team that is anemic with Caleb Hanie under center, and all you have to lay is the standard 3 points? Thank you, where do I sign? It's simple: don't kick to Devin Hester, and let God's QB sort things out in the last 5 minutes.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 30-30-5
Saturday, December 3, 2011
5 for Sunday
Finally back over .500 after last week. I wanted to take Seattle plus the 3 at home against the Eagles on Thursday night, but I didn't get it in on time so it won't count. Home teams in CAPS.
Cincinnati (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
When all is said and done, the Bengals just play close games. Do they have enough to win at the Big Ketchup Bottle in December? Maybe not. But I think they have enough to keep things close. The Steelers will not light up the scoreboard and Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not yet back to 100%, as anyone who saw last Sunday night's squeaker in Kansas City would attest. Now that Andy Dalton has A.J. Green back on the field, the Bengals might be able to take the shots against Pittsburgh's depleted secondary that the Chiefs weren't able to.
NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) over Indianapolis
If you needed any further reason to take the Patriots in this game, be advised that Dan Orlovsky is starting this game for the Colts. Moving on....
Tennessee (+2.5) over BUFFALO
The Bills had plenty of chances against the Jets last week, but Stevie Johnson spent more time orchestrating touchdown celebrations than catching the ball. Chris Johnson is seemingly back to being the Chris Johnson of 2009, which measures up favorably against the Bills' 4.5-ypc run defense. Simply put, Tennessee is a decent team and Buffalo is a fraud. Take the points and enjoy not watching this game.
Cincinnati (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
When all is said and done, the Bengals just play close games. Do they have enough to win at the Big Ketchup Bottle in December? Maybe not. But I think they have enough to keep things close. The Steelers will not light up the scoreboard and Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not yet back to 100%, as anyone who saw last Sunday night's squeaker in Kansas City would attest. Now that Andy Dalton has A.J. Green back on the field, the Bengals might be able to take the shots against Pittsburgh's depleted secondary that the Chiefs weren't able to.
NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) over Indianapolis
If you needed any further reason to take the Patriots in this game, be advised that Dan Orlovsky is starting this game for the Colts. Moving on....
Tennessee (+2.5) over BUFFALO
The Bills had plenty of chances against the Jets last week, but Stevie Johnson spent more time orchestrating touchdown celebrations than catching the ball. Chris Johnson is seemingly back to being the Chris Johnson of 2009, which measures up favorably against the Bills' 4.5-ypc run defense. Simply put, Tennessee is a decent team and Buffalo is a fraud. Take the points and enjoy not watching this game.
Denver (+1.5) over MINNESOTA
Does Tebowmania continue? A lot of people are saying it will not, now that God's quarterback will be faced with the Metrodome. However, with Adrian Peterson ruled out again for the Vikings, I have no real reason to back a team that has lost 5 of 6 over a team that has won 5 of 6 and seems to have something supernatural on their side.
Green Bay (-6.5) over NY GIANTS
I guess there are people out there who have some blind faith that the Giants will just pull one out of their ass against the unquestioned best team in football. Those people must not have seen either of the Giants' past two games. It's not that I don't think the Giants have a good team. The Giants do have a good team. It's just that too many of those players who make up that "good team" are either injured or playing hurt (Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Justin Tuck, Michael Boley, and Osi Umenyiora just to name a few). Even if the December wind starts whipping around MetLife Stadium, you can't tell me that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, on 10 days' rest, don't have another field day.
Last Week: 4-1-0
Season: 28-27-5
Saturday, November 26, 2011
5 for Sunday
A lot of big spreads out there this week, thanks to injuries accumulating throughout the league and the simple economics of betting against the several flat-out terrible teams in the NFL. From the looks of the remainder of Week 12, the best football of the weekend likely took place on Thursday. Home teams in CAPS.
NY JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Wait, both of these teams are 5-5? Could have fooled me. Ordinarily it would be insane to give up this many points with the Jets, but Buffalo is in an all-out free fall and now will be playing without Fred Jackson for the rest of the season. If Darrelle Revis locks up on Stevie Johnson, how will the Bills score at all? This is purely a bet against Buffalo, for whom the clock struck midnight three weeks ago.
ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
All you need to know about this game is that Adrian Peterson is doubtful with the high ankle sprain suffered in last week's loss to Oakland. I still don't think Atlanta is a very good team, but they are arguably an ill-advised 4th down call in overtime away from being on a 5-game winning streak, and their strong run defense figures to be even stronger without AP on the field for the Vikings. Fun fact? This is the seventh straight game that the Falcons have played in a dome.
Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
It really says something when a 2-8 team is a 3.5 point favorite on the road, but that is the point that the 2011 Indianapolis Colts have reached. The Panthers jumped out to a big early lead on Detroit last week, only to blow it in giving up a total of 49 points. Should Carolina put up anything resembling the first half they played against the Lions, then you can turn the lights out on Indy once again. The Colts have not scored more than 10 points in a game since October 16.
Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO
NEW ORLEANS (-7) over NY Giants (Monday Night)
I guess nobody ever woke the Giants up and told them how important their game against the Eagles was last week. Their offense was never in sync, their defense let Vince Young go on an 18-play drive to win the game, and Brandon Jacobs thought the result was a good opportunity to bad-mouth his team's fans. The Saints will have had 15 days of rest coming into this Monday Nighter in the Superdome, where they are 4-0 (straight up as well as ATS) this year. Should Ahmad Bradshaw miss yet another game for the Giants, their running game woes will only get worse.
Last Week: 1-3-1
Season: 24-26-5
NY JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Wait, both of these teams are 5-5? Could have fooled me. Ordinarily it would be insane to give up this many points with the Jets, but Buffalo is in an all-out free fall and now will be playing without Fred Jackson for the rest of the season. If Darrelle Revis locks up on Stevie Johnson, how will the Bills score at all? This is purely a bet against Buffalo, for whom the clock struck midnight three weeks ago.
ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
All you need to know about this game is that Adrian Peterson is doubtful with the high ankle sprain suffered in last week's loss to Oakland. I still don't think Atlanta is a very good team, but they are arguably an ill-advised 4th down call in overtime away from being on a 5-game winning streak, and their strong run defense figures to be even stronger without AP on the field for the Vikings. Fun fact? This is the seventh straight game that the Falcons have played in a dome.
Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
It really says something when a 2-8 team is a 3.5 point favorite on the road, but that is the point that the 2011 Indianapolis Colts have reached. The Panthers jumped out to a big early lead on Detroit last week, only to blow it in giving up a total of 49 points. Should Carolina put up anything resembling the first half they played against the Lions, then you can turn the lights out on Indy once again. The Colts have not scored more than 10 points in a game since October 16.
Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO
NEW ORLEANS (-7) over NY Giants (Monday Night)
I guess nobody ever woke the Giants up and told them how important their game against the Eagles was last week. Their offense was never in sync, their defense let Vince Young go on an 18-play drive to win the game, and Brandon Jacobs thought the result was a good opportunity to bad-mouth his team's fans. The Saints will have had 15 days of rest coming into this Monday Nighter in the Superdome, where they are 4-0 (straight up as well as ATS) this year. Should Ahmad Bradshaw miss yet another game for the Giants, their running game woes will only get worse.
Last Week: 1-3-1
Season: 24-26-5
Saturday, November 19, 2011
5 for Sunday
After somehow pulling a winning week out of my you-know-where in Week 10, I'm back to .500 on the nose with seven weeks to go in the regular season. Not the prettiest slate of games scheduled for Week 11, but hey, play the hand you're dealt. Home teams in CAPS.
Carolina (+7) over DETROIT
Both of these teams threw up absolute turds last week, but I'm willing to give Carolina a pass for their loss to the Titans because Chris Johnson morphed back into Chris Johnson all of a sudden. After all, the Panthers aren't supposed to be very good. The Lions appear to be in free fall, and cannot keep Matthew Stafford or any of their running backs healthy for any extended period of time. It would make sense for Detroit to try to be very aggressive in getting after Cam Newton, but I think Newton's raw play-making ability may show itself if the Lions get too greedy on defense.
Dallas (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
So many things about this game are screaming at me to stay away, but there just aren't enough decent games this week to avoid my usual homer pick here. I really think this is too many points to give, especially when you see that the Cowboys have beaten the Redskins by 8 or more just once in their past ten meetings. But Dallas has been so tough to stop on offense in the past month (not counting the blowout at the hands of the Eagles in Week 8, where the Cowboys fell behind so quickly that their normal offense was moot) that an objective observer would figure them to have little problem taking care of business at FedEx Field. The Redskins seem to get worse every week and have now switched back to Rex Grossman at quarterback. That fact plus Washington's sore lack of receiving threats outside of TE Fred Davis makes you forget that Dallas is still missing its top cornerback in Mike Jenkins. If things go as they should, it will be another banner day for the rookie DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys improve to 6-4 without giving me a heart attack.
Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Yankees radio play-by-play man John Sterling must love the Baltimore Ravens, because ya just can't predict them, Suzyn. How can a team that just got trounced by Seattle be 2-0 against Pittsburgh? When you look at the Ravens' last four games as a whole, huge red flags pop up about their offense. The Bengals are right in the thick of the AFC North race and played the Steelers very tough last week. One interesting note: that 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh was the Bengals' largest margin of defeat all year. Cincy is without AJ Green, but Baltimore will likely be playing sans Ray Lewis for the first time in four years. A full touchdown is just too many to lay with the Ravens right now, and the Bengals do tend to play close games so I'll take my chances plus the points.
GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay
Not that it really really matters because you can pencil Aaron Rodgers in for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns basically every week, but should Green Bay find any lack of smoothness at all in their passing game, they have the Bucs' miserable, 6.1-yards-per-carry run defense to feast upon. And Josh Freeman, who has hit bit of a wall this year for Tampa, won't be the one to expose the Packers defense enough to beat them. It's becoming a bit of a cop-out to simply take the Packers every week, but at this point how can you not? They're simply that good.
CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego
This line seems about 2 points too low - and God bless you if you were able to get it when it opened at 2.5. What could possibly possess someone to put money on the Chargers right now? Philip Rivers has been an interception machine this year, the team has lost 4 in a row, and now they must come east (again) to play in what may be less-than-ideal conditions in a late afternoon game at Soldier Field. The Bears have come on very strong in the past month and are still flying under the radar a bit thanks to the unstoppable Packers. Consider this game another nail in the coffin of Norv Turner's job.
Last Week : 3-2-0
Season: 23-23-4
Carolina (+7) over DETROIT
Both of these teams threw up absolute turds last week, but I'm willing to give Carolina a pass for their loss to the Titans because Chris Johnson morphed back into Chris Johnson all of a sudden. After all, the Panthers aren't supposed to be very good. The Lions appear to be in free fall, and cannot keep Matthew Stafford or any of their running backs healthy for any extended period of time. It would make sense for Detroit to try to be very aggressive in getting after Cam Newton, but I think Newton's raw play-making ability may show itself if the Lions get too greedy on defense.
Dallas (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
So many things about this game are screaming at me to stay away, but there just aren't enough decent games this week to avoid my usual homer pick here. I really think this is too many points to give, especially when you see that the Cowboys have beaten the Redskins by 8 or more just once in their past ten meetings. But Dallas has been so tough to stop on offense in the past month (not counting the blowout at the hands of the Eagles in Week 8, where the Cowboys fell behind so quickly that their normal offense was moot) that an objective observer would figure them to have little problem taking care of business at FedEx Field. The Redskins seem to get worse every week and have now switched back to Rex Grossman at quarterback. That fact plus Washington's sore lack of receiving threats outside of TE Fred Davis makes you forget that Dallas is still missing its top cornerback in Mike Jenkins. If things go as they should, it will be another banner day for the rookie DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys improve to 6-4 without giving me a heart attack.
Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Yankees radio play-by-play man John Sterling must love the Baltimore Ravens, because ya just can't predict them, Suzyn. How can a team that just got trounced by Seattle be 2-0 against Pittsburgh? When you look at the Ravens' last four games as a whole, huge red flags pop up about their offense. The Bengals are right in the thick of the AFC North race and played the Steelers very tough last week. One interesting note: that 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh was the Bengals' largest margin of defeat all year. Cincy is without AJ Green, but Baltimore will likely be playing sans Ray Lewis for the first time in four years. A full touchdown is just too many to lay with the Ravens right now, and the Bengals do tend to play close games so I'll take my chances plus the points.
GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay
Not that it really really matters because you can pencil Aaron Rodgers in for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns basically every week, but should Green Bay find any lack of smoothness at all in their passing game, they have the Bucs' miserable, 6.1-yards-per-carry run defense to feast upon. And Josh Freeman, who has hit bit of a wall this year for Tampa, won't be the one to expose the Packers defense enough to beat them. It's becoming a bit of a cop-out to simply take the Packers every week, but at this point how can you not? They're simply that good.
CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego
This line seems about 2 points too low - and God bless you if you were able to get it when it opened at 2.5. What could possibly possess someone to put money on the Chargers right now? Philip Rivers has been an interception machine this year, the team has lost 4 in a row, and now they must come east (again) to play in what may be less-than-ideal conditions in a late afternoon game at Soldier Field. The Bears have come on very strong in the past month and are still flying under the radar a bit thanks to the unstoppable Packers. Consider this game another nail in the coffin of Norv Turner's job.
Last Week : 3-2-0
Season: 23-23-4
Saturday, November 12, 2011
5 for Sunday
"The Opposite" last week helped stop the bleeding, but still proved to be less than profitable. Oh well, sometimes the actual instinct is the way to go. Fortunately, still just one game under .500 as we move on to Week 10, when the weather starts to get cold, Thursday games and flex scheduling take effect, and the playoff races take shape. Home teams in CAPS.
Tennessee (+3.5) over CAROLINA
Despite the wondrous efforts of Cam Newton in his rookie year, Carolina is largely feast-or-famine. I really don't think the 2-6 Panthers are good enough to be more than 3-point favorites at home to anyone besides the Colts. If Chris Johnson shows up at all for the Titans (a very big IF), then they should be able to beat Carolina by double digits. In the likelihood that Johnson doesn't show up, the Titans offense is extremely pedestrian...and still has a decent chance to come out on top or at least keep it to a field goal game either way.DALLAS (-5.5) over Buffalo
A few interesting storylines here. One, Bills WR David Nelson is dating Cowboys cheerleader Kelsi Reich. Two, the land acquired to build Cowboys Stadium was actually the neighborhood in which Bills RB Fred Jackson grew up. Three, Bills head coach Chan Gailey faces his old team for the first time since his two-year tenure as Cowboys head coach, during which he never met a called dump pass on 3rd-and-12 that he didn't like. Four, Miles Austin is out for this game and for the next few weeks. The book might be out on Buffalo if their thrashing at the hands of the Jets is any indication, and as long as you refrain from giving the ball away on offense the Bills are quite beatable. Just for fun, here's what happened the last time these two teams met.Baltimore (-7) over SEATTLE
It took long enough, but the Ravens woke up against Pittsburgh last week and are now in the driver's seat of the AFC North race at 6-2, with two games in hand over Pittsburgh and both games with Cincinnati still to come. Now they get to take their licks against Tarvaris Jackson and the hapless Seahawks, who ran the ball very well last week against Dallas but did so largely because the Cowboys were missing their top MLB Sean Lee. It's highly unlikely that Marshawn Lynch sees the running lanes against Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, et al that he saw against Dallas. It's a bit dubious to lay this many points with a team going on such a long road trip, but the fact remains that Baltimore is a significantly better team than Seattle is.Detroit (+3) over CHICAGO
The Lions treated Jay Cutler like a rag doll in the last meeting between these teams, and thanks to their Tebowing in Denver a few weeks ago, they're now the NFL's new bad boys. Chicago is sure to protect Cutler better than they did against the Lions in Week 5, but that doesn't mean he'll have nearly the time and space to throw that he did last Monday against the Eagles. I'm leery of taking Detroit because their running back situation is terrible, but they are coming off of a bye while the Bears are on a short week. This game figures to be very close, the 21-20 or 24-23 variety, so I'll take the points and grit my teeth.
GREEN BAY (-13) over Minnesota (Monday Night)
This line opened at 14 or even 14.5, so enough Vikings money has come in to bring it down to 13. That's not a huge surprise given how the Vikings played the Packers pretty tight at the Metrodome just three weeks ago (Sidebar: how seriously weird is that? Minnesota is in a stretch of schedule where two out of three games are against Green Bay.) Even Charles Woodson came out and said the Packers' defense has to play much better and can't be so reliant on pick-sixes and other big-play turnovers to win games. I still think that one of these weeks someone is going to expose that Packers defense to a point to which not even Aaron Rodgers can trade touchdowns, but the Vikings are not that team, and this will not be that week.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 20-21-4
Friday, November 4, 2011
5 for Sunday
First, a look at last week, for those who aren't queasy:
New Orleans (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
Indianapolis (+9) over TENNESSEE
DENVER (+3) over Detroit
New England (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH
Dallas (+3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Wow, I suck. My first 0-5 week ever in either NCAA or the NFL, and like I did at one point last year to pull myself out of a funk, the George Costanza Opposite Method is once again in full effect. Home teams in CAPS.
WASHINGTON (+3.5) over San Francisco
The 49ers have conquered the East Coast time and again this year and have a stranglehold on the NFC West. Jim Harbaugh has people in Rice-a-Roni land entertaining the prospect of buying playoff tickets for the first time in 9 years. The Redskins flat-out stink, have hardly any worthwhile offensive players healthy, and hit their high point about about 5 weeks ago. Was being blanked by Buffalo last week the low point? Sadly, I don't even think so. My instinct and football reasoning loves the 49ers in this game...so give me Washington at home plus the points.
DALLAS (-11.5) over Seattle
I had a front-row seat for the Cowboys' bludgeoning in Philly last week. The Eagles let Rob Ryan's overly aggressive defensive approach play right into their hand, and had the Cowboys lining up wrong, running themselves out of plays, and looking lost the entire night. And oh yeah, middle linebacker Sean Lee is likely out, leaving 86-year-old Keith Brooking to have to start in his place. Football games are won by blocking and tackling, and Dallas did neither very well last week. I have very little confidence in them laying double digits....so I'll take them minus the 11.5.
MIAMI (+4) over Kansas City
The Chiefs have won 4 in a row and look like world-beaters after their Monday Night conquest of the Chargers. The Dolphins are inventing more ways to lose and have yet to put 60 respectable minutes of football together this year. KC has new life, while Miami never had any of it. So yeah, give me the Dolphins +4.
SAN DIEGO (+5.5) over Green Bay
The Packers have been unstoppable and are coming off a bye. The Chargers play arguably the worst fundamental football of anyone in the league, have a banged-up backfield, and have a short week after losing last Monday Night to Kansas City. Green Bay runs it well, throws it well, is coached well, and has won 13 straight dating back to last year. The only thing standing in their way is The Opposite. Chargers +5.5, and hell, I like them to win outright.
Baltimore (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Ravens, who looked like a Super Bowl team early this year, have spiraled out of control in the past few weeks and needed a ferocious second-half comeback to beat lowly Arizona at home last week. Joe Flacco and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron are far from seeing eye-to-eye, and even Ray Rice has been held to 3.5 yards per carry in his past four games. The Steelers, on the other hand, are throwing the ball at will, have somehow managed to replace their hoard of injured defensive players, and kept complete control of the Patriots in their win last week. Pittsburgh is quite the tough place to play for a team in turmoil....so naturally, the pick goes to Baltimore.
Last Week : 0-5-0
Season: 18-18-4
New Orleans (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
Indianapolis (+9) over TENNESSEE
DENVER (+3) over Detroit
New England (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH
Dallas (+3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Wow, I suck. My first 0-5 week ever in either NCAA or the NFL, and like I did at one point last year to pull myself out of a funk, the George Costanza Opposite Method is once again in full effect. Home teams in CAPS.
WASHINGTON (+3.5) over San Francisco
The 49ers have conquered the East Coast time and again this year and have a stranglehold on the NFC West. Jim Harbaugh has people in Rice-a-Roni land entertaining the prospect of buying playoff tickets for the first time in 9 years. The Redskins flat-out stink, have hardly any worthwhile offensive players healthy, and hit their high point about about 5 weeks ago. Was being blanked by Buffalo last week the low point? Sadly, I don't even think so. My instinct and football reasoning loves the 49ers in this game...so give me Washington at home plus the points.
DALLAS (-11.5) over Seattle
I had a front-row seat for the Cowboys' bludgeoning in Philly last week. The Eagles let Rob Ryan's overly aggressive defensive approach play right into their hand, and had the Cowboys lining up wrong, running themselves out of plays, and looking lost the entire night. And oh yeah, middle linebacker Sean Lee is likely out, leaving 86-year-old Keith Brooking to have to start in his place. Football games are won by blocking and tackling, and Dallas did neither very well last week. I have very little confidence in them laying double digits....so I'll take them minus the 11.5.
MIAMI (+4) over Kansas City
The Chiefs have won 4 in a row and look like world-beaters after their Monday Night conquest of the Chargers. The Dolphins are inventing more ways to lose and have yet to put 60 respectable minutes of football together this year. KC has new life, while Miami never had any of it. So yeah, give me the Dolphins +4.
SAN DIEGO (+5.5) over Green Bay
The Packers have been unstoppable and are coming off a bye. The Chargers play arguably the worst fundamental football of anyone in the league, have a banged-up backfield, and have a short week after losing last Monday Night to Kansas City. Green Bay runs it well, throws it well, is coached well, and has won 13 straight dating back to last year. The only thing standing in their way is The Opposite. Chargers +5.5, and hell, I like them to win outright.
Baltimore (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Ravens, who looked like a Super Bowl team early this year, have spiraled out of control in the past few weeks and needed a ferocious second-half comeback to beat lowly Arizona at home last week. Joe Flacco and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron are far from seeing eye-to-eye, and even Ray Rice has been held to 3.5 yards per carry in his past four games. The Steelers, on the other hand, are throwing the ball at will, have somehow managed to replace their hoard of injured defensive players, and kept complete control of the Patriots in their win last week. Pittsburgh is quite the tough place to play for a team in turmoil....so naturally, the pick goes to Baltimore.
Last Week : 0-5-0
Season: 18-18-4
Saturday, October 22, 2011
5 for Sunday
Same deal as the NCAA - no columns the past two weeks but I promise I did get the picks in. And they were:
Week 5 (3-1-1)
NY GIANTS (-10) over Seattle
BUFFALO (+3) over Philadelphia
NY Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND
Green Bay (-6) over ATLANTA
DETROIT (-5.5) over Chicago
Week 6 (2-2-1)
Week 5 (3-1-1)
NY GIANTS (-10) over Seattle
BUFFALO (+3) over Philadelphia
NY Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND
Green Bay (-6) over ATLANTA
DETROIT (-5.5) over Chicago
Week 6 (2-2-1)
Buffalo (+3) over NY Giants
GREEN BAY (-15.5) over St. Louis
WASHINGTON (+1) over Philadelphia
Carolina (+4) over ATLANTA
Dallas (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
So as we move into Week 7, a rather depleted schedule is waiting for us as several of the intriguing teams are on byes and several other matchups are just ugly. Home teams in CAPS.
Denver (pk) over MIAMI
Or, as this game should be called, The Tim Tebow Party. This game has actually been sold out in Miami due to all the Florida fans wanting to see their favorite son starting for the Broncos, and to boot, the 2008 Florida Gators National Championship team is going to be honored at halftime. The Dolphins quit in the second half against the Jets last week and I can't imagine them putting forth a much better effort when they see that 2/3 of their "home crowd" is rooting for Denver. God Bless.
Tampa Bay (+1) over Chicago (neutral site - London)
I must be crazy to be taking a side on this game, but I have little faith in the Bears this year despite them taking their turn at thrashing the Vikings last week. The Bucs' defensive weakness is through the air, but the Bears' biggest offensive weakness is protecting Jay Cutler. I think Tampa puts Cutler on his back enough and runs the ball well enough against a surprisingly soft Bears defense to squeeze this game out across the pond.
ARIZONA (+4) over Pittsburgh
Let me first say that I don't quite buy the Steelers yet this year, as they have let clearly inferior opponents such as Jacksonville and Indy hang around. Also, I think the Cardinals have to be a better team than what they've shown so far, and the bye week can only have helped Kevin Kolb get himself further indoctrinated with the offense. Even so, this is strictly a bet against the Steelers and against the thought of laying 4 points with them on the road in the desert.
Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA
Funny what a difference two years makes, right? This time in 2009, this line may very well have been flipped the other way around for a Packers-Vikings game in the Metrodome. Alas, it's 2011, and Christian Ponder is finally getting his first NFL start in place of Donovan McNabb. Ride the Packers until they falter, it's that simple.
NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Indianapolis
#SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck #SuckForLuck
Season: 16-10-4
So as we move into Week 7, a rather depleted schedule is waiting for us as several of the intriguing teams are on byes and several other matchups are just ugly. Home teams in CAPS.
Denver (pk) over MIAMI
Or, as this game should be called, The Tim Tebow Party. This game has actually been sold out in Miami due to all the Florida fans wanting to see their favorite son starting for the Broncos, and to boot, the 2008 Florida Gators National Championship team is going to be honored at halftime. The Dolphins quit in the second half against the Jets last week and I can't imagine them putting forth a much better effort when they see that 2/3 of their "home crowd" is rooting for Denver. God Bless.
Tampa Bay (+1) over Chicago (neutral site - London)
I must be crazy to be taking a side on this game, but I have little faith in the Bears this year despite them taking their turn at thrashing the Vikings last week. The Bucs' defensive weakness is through the air, but the Bears' biggest offensive weakness is protecting Jay Cutler. I think Tampa puts Cutler on his back enough and runs the ball well enough against a surprisingly soft Bears defense to squeeze this game out across the pond.
ARIZONA (+4) over Pittsburgh
Let me first say that I don't quite buy the Steelers yet this year, as they have let clearly inferior opponents such as Jacksonville and Indy hang around. Also, I think the Cardinals have to be a better team than what they've shown so far, and the bye week can only have helped Kevin Kolb get himself further indoctrinated with the offense. Even so, this is strictly a bet against the Steelers and against the thought of laying 4 points with them on the road in the desert.
Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA
Funny what a difference two years makes, right? This time in 2009, this line may very well have been flipped the other way around for a Packers-Vikings game in the Metrodome. Alas, it's 2011, and Christian Ponder is finally getting his first NFL start in place of Donovan McNabb. Ride the Packers until they falter, it's that simple.
NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Indianapolis
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Season: 16-10-4
Saturday, October 1, 2011
5 for Sunday
Finally got a nose across the .500 mark last week, hopefully for good (yeah, right). My approach right now is "half the league stinks and a third of the league is inconsistent, so bet on the few good teams there are and take the points everywhere else." Home teams in CAPS.
San Francisco (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
Until the Eagles show they can play a little fundamental football (especially on defense), I'm continuing to go against them. San Francisco is a miserable team and I can't believe I'm taking a West Coast team in a 1pm road game, but Patrick Willis is as good of a spy on Mike Vick that you can have, and the 49ers can bestow a healthy Frank Gore dose upon the most overrated team in the league. A win would be a surprise, but I think Jim Harbaugh will have his team ready to play.New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
Anyone who pays attention to this column knows that I tend to back the Saints pretty often. Even on the road in what may not be an optimal playing conditions, this team is still far and away better than Jacksonville, who is in a state of total rebuilding outside of MJD. This should be a nice "welcome to the NFL" afternoon for Blaine Gabbert in his first home start, and maybe he can learn a thing or two watching Drew Brees from the opposite side of the field. You can't even get worried about the Saints' suspect pass defense here.GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver
Remember that part about me saying there are only a few very good teams? This is one of them. Possibly the best, even. Can the Broncos move the ball? Ordinarily against Green Bay's secondary, that would be a definite "no," but the Packers have shown cracks there this year. Even so, this doesn't figure to be the type of game that will bring the Tim Tebow billboards down in Denver. I want to see someone make a big stand against the Green Bay offense before I pick against them. The Packers should leave the Broncos cross-eyed this Sunday.
NY Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
Why? Because almost everything else is telling you to go the other way. The Ravens, when not being caught napping, have been very convincing in their two wins this year. The Jets played a miserable second half against Oakland last week and now have Mark Sanchez playing with a broken nose and Nick Mangold possibly still out with an ankle injury suffered in Week 2. However, I think Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie can neutralize, if not full-out stop, Joe Flacco in the Ravens' passing attempts. So, in a run-heavy game, give me the points.
Indianapolis (+10) over TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay doesn't score enough to lay 10 points to anyone, and there is still enough of a veteran presence on this Colts team to think they can hang tough on Monday night. And just so we're sure: I swear I'll never bet on a team quarterbacked by Curtis Painter again if this doesn't work out. I swear I'll never bet on a team quarterbacked by Curtis Painter again if this doesn't work out. I swear I'll never bet on a team quarterbacked by Curtis Painter again if this doesn't work out. I swear I'll never bet on a team quarterbacked by Curtis Painter again if this doesn't work out. I swear I'll never bet on a team quarterbacked by Curtis Painter again if this doesn't work out.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 7-6-2
Friday, September 23, 2011
5 for Sunday
Week 3 in the NFL, and as widely expected, nearly every team in the league has shown cracks and had bouts with sloppy play and injuries, thanks in large part to the abbreviated offseason and preseason this past summer. In layman's terms, nothing's really changed - 80% of the teams in the league stink. Home teams in CAPS.
NY Giants (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
Mike Vick will most likely be playing, which partially explains the 9-point line. The Giants have looked no better than average in their first two games and enter this one still a very banged-up team, which does the rest of the explaining of the 9-point line. The Eagles have six straight wins against the Giants and some will say they have their number. In my opinion, the Giants' strength (running the ball) plays well against the Eagles' weakness (tackling, as evidenced by Michael Turner last week). However, say goodnight if the Eagles get up by two scores quickly. To have a chance to win, the Giants need to use the clock as their 12th man and let Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw try to gut the Eagles' defense. A healthy Osi Umenyiora would be a big help for the Giants, but no one's holding their breath. Still, I'll take the 9 points because it's 3.5 too many.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Houston
Are the Texans ready for prime time? We'll know a lot more after this game in the Superdome, and to their credit, they have a Wade Phillips defense working for them, the same man that was responsible for derailing the Saints' run at a perfect season two years ago. Wait, I didn't just praise Wade Phillips, did I? My gosh did I seriously just say that? The Saints kept on ticking last week on their home turf, and likely will not have to deal with Arian Foster for the Texans (although to be fair, Ben Tate has been no slouch in his place). It would take a lot for me to bet against the Saints at home, and despite Andre Johnson's likely 150-yard game in this one, the Texans aren't enough to make me do that.
SEATTLE (+3.5) over Arizona
The way the Seahawks have played so far, I can't believe I'm doing this. But they get a soft Cardinals team in their home opener that is giving up a whopping 466 yards of offense per game. The Seahawks do have a good home field advantage and Kevin Kolb may experience some more of the growing pains associated with being a full-time starter. Neither of these teams is really any good, so take the home dog and hope for the best.
Atlanta (+1.5) over TAMPA BAY
I'll go on record and say that I still like this Tampa team, but Atlanta showed a lot last Sunday night in coming back and beating the Eagles. Michael Turner must be licking his chops to go up against the Bucs' rushing defense, which has given up 156 yards per game so far. The Bucs won't be able to sneak up on people the way they did last year, especially not a division rival. These two teams tend to play each other very tough, but in what amounts to a coin flip of a game it just makes more sense to go with the team that you know is slightly better. Josh Freeman has a knack for keeping his team in the game, but I don't know that Tampa has enough answers on defense for what the Falcons offense may present.
SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City
Last week the Chargers showed their typical symptoms of the Norv Turner Syndrome that has been plaguing them for four years now. Despite the mistake-and-turnover party the Bolts threw in Foxboro, you still have to like them this week against the Chiefs. Why? Because Jamaal Charles is out for the season, and because KC has been outscored 89-10 in their first two games this year. If the Chiefs had been able to show any sort of fight against Buffalo and/or Detroit, then they'd be a sneaky pick here. But since they haven't been competitive at all thus far, you can't put a dime on Kansas City putting up a good showing in San Diego. The Chargers get healthy here and embark on their latest go-round of beating up on the miserable AFC West.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season: 4-4-2
NY Giants (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
Mike Vick will most likely be playing, which partially explains the 9-point line. The Giants have looked no better than average in their first two games and enter this one still a very banged-up team, which does the rest of the explaining of the 9-point line. The Eagles have six straight wins against the Giants and some will say they have their number. In my opinion, the Giants' strength (running the ball) plays well against the Eagles' weakness (tackling, as evidenced by Michael Turner last week). However, say goodnight if the Eagles get up by two scores quickly. To have a chance to win, the Giants need to use the clock as their 12th man and let Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw try to gut the Eagles' defense. A healthy Osi Umenyiora would be a big help for the Giants, but no one's holding their breath. Still, I'll take the 9 points because it's 3.5 too many.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Houston
Are the Texans ready for prime time? We'll know a lot more after this game in the Superdome, and to their credit, they have a Wade Phillips defense working for them, the same man that was responsible for derailing the Saints' run at a perfect season two years ago. Wait, I didn't just praise Wade Phillips, did I? My gosh did I seriously just say that? The Saints kept on ticking last week on their home turf, and likely will not have to deal with Arian Foster for the Texans (although to be fair, Ben Tate has been no slouch in his place). It would take a lot for me to bet against the Saints at home, and despite Andre Johnson's likely 150-yard game in this one, the Texans aren't enough to make me do that.
SEATTLE (+3.5) over Arizona
The way the Seahawks have played so far, I can't believe I'm doing this. But they get a soft Cardinals team in their home opener that is giving up a whopping 466 yards of offense per game. The Seahawks do have a good home field advantage and Kevin Kolb may experience some more of the growing pains associated with being a full-time starter. Neither of these teams is really any good, so take the home dog and hope for the best.
Atlanta (+1.5) over TAMPA BAY
I'll go on record and say that I still like this Tampa team, but Atlanta showed a lot last Sunday night in coming back and beating the Eagles. Michael Turner must be licking his chops to go up against the Bucs' rushing defense, which has given up 156 yards per game so far. The Bucs won't be able to sneak up on people the way they did last year, especially not a division rival. These two teams tend to play each other very tough, but in what amounts to a coin flip of a game it just makes more sense to go with the team that you know is slightly better. Josh Freeman has a knack for keeping his team in the game, but I don't know that Tampa has enough answers on defense for what the Falcons offense may present.
SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City
Last week the Chargers showed their typical symptoms of the Norv Turner Syndrome that has been plaguing them for four years now. Despite the mistake-and-turnover party the Bolts threw in Foxboro, you still have to like them this week against the Chiefs. Why? Because Jamaal Charles is out for the season, and because KC has been outscored 89-10 in their first two games this year. If the Chiefs had been able to show any sort of fight against Buffalo and/or Detroit, then they'd be a sneaky pick here. But since they haven't been competitive at all thus far, you can't put a dime on Kansas City putting up a good showing in San Diego. The Chargers get healthy here and embark on their latest go-round of beating up on the miserable AFC West.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season: 4-4-2
Friday, September 16, 2011
5 for Sunday
Week 2...when everyone is either pricing flights to Indy for the Super Bowl or hanging their head coach in effigy. The season's second week is arguably harder to bet than the first week, because most notions we had believed to be true just 8 days ago are basically out the window, and hardly anyone really knows where to go with the point spreads. Making matters worse, the schedule of games this week is pretty lame. Home teams in CAPS.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Chicago
It's a bit surprising that the line is as big as it is here (doesn't 4-5.5 points seem more like it?), but you can't go against the Saints in the Superdome after their offensive showing at Lambeau on opening night. The Bears knocked the Falcons around at home last week, but they are not quite a team built for the fast track and still have trouble protecting Jay Cutler. The loss of Marques Colston is a bit discouraging, but it's still hard to envision Chicago winning this game away from home. The Saints will have had 10 days of rest going into this week, so giving up less than a touchdown to back them in the dome is OK with me.
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) over Cleveland
You're telling me you want me to give points on the road with a Browns team that just lost to the Bengals at home? No, thanks. The Colts were in an impossible spot last week in Houston against a team who had given them a run for their money before, even when Peyton Manning was healthy. While this pick isn't exactly an endorsement for the Colts, I'm willing to give Kerry Collins another week to mesh with Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, et al, before envisioning Andrew Luck with a horseshoe on his helmet next year. We all know how pitiful the Colts looked last week, but I still don't see why this game isn't a pick-em.
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Seattle
I don't buy the "oh, the Steelers are really mad after the Ravens destroying them last week, blah blah blah" argument because if all a team has to do is get angry to play good football, then why couldn't they have done it against their bitter rivals? What I do buy is this: a West Coast team quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson flying east for a 1:00 game in one of the toughest places to play. Isn't that the ideal formula to bet against? I don't see the Seahawks' defense forcing 7 turnovers out of Pittsburgh the way that Baltimore did. And on the other side of the ball, it's very likely that the Steelers keep the Seahawks under 10 points.
BUFFALO (-3) over Oakland
The Raiders thoroughly outplayed Denver last week but still had to hold on at the end for a 23-20 win, while Buffalo sent Kansas City back to 2009 with a 41-7 shellacking at Arrowhead. Am I drinking the Bills kool-aid? Maybe a little bit, but this game is also an instance of a West Coast team, on a short week, flying east for a 1:00 game (sorry if I harp on this topic too much, but it's tough to deny). Darren McFadden may very well run wild against the Bills defense, but the Raiders' overall lack of discipline may cost them against the Bills sneaky-decent offense, especially as they move further into the post-Nnamdi era. If none of the above happens, then I promise to not even think about taking the Bills for at least a month.
San Diego (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Lost in the shuffle of Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards against Miami is that the Patriots' defense allowed the Dolphins to move the ball up and down the field most of the night. The Chargers, who only gave up 39 passing yards to Donovan McNabb last week, aren't about to give up another 500 to Brady. The game still figures to be a shootout, but I think the 7 points are more of an overreaction to Week 1 than anything else, even if the Foxborough crowd is nice and "lubed up" at their quarterback's request.
Last Week: 2-2-1
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Chicago
It's a bit surprising that the line is as big as it is here (doesn't 4-5.5 points seem more like it?), but you can't go against the Saints in the Superdome after their offensive showing at Lambeau on opening night. The Bears knocked the Falcons around at home last week, but they are not quite a team built for the fast track and still have trouble protecting Jay Cutler. The loss of Marques Colston is a bit discouraging, but it's still hard to envision Chicago winning this game away from home. The Saints will have had 10 days of rest going into this week, so giving up less than a touchdown to back them in the dome is OK with me.
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) over Cleveland
You're telling me you want me to give points on the road with a Browns team that just lost to the Bengals at home? No, thanks. The Colts were in an impossible spot last week in Houston against a team who had given them a run for their money before, even when Peyton Manning was healthy. While this pick isn't exactly an endorsement for the Colts, I'm willing to give Kerry Collins another week to mesh with Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, et al, before envisioning Andrew Luck with a horseshoe on his helmet next year. We all know how pitiful the Colts looked last week, but I still don't see why this game isn't a pick-em.
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Seattle
I don't buy the "oh, the Steelers are really mad after the Ravens destroying them last week, blah blah blah" argument because if all a team has to do is get angry to play good football, then why couldn't they have done it against their bitter rivals? What I do buy is this: a West Coast team quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson flying east for a 1:00 game in one of the toughest places to play. Isn't that the ideal formula to bet against? I don't see the Seahawks' defense forcing 7 turnovers out of Pittsburgh the way that Baltimore did. And on the other side of the ball, it's very likely that the Steelers keep the Seahawks under 10 points.
BUFFALO (-3) over Oakland
The Raiders thoroughly outplayed Denver last week but still had to hold on at the end for a 23-20 win, while Buffalo sent Kansas City back to 2009 with a 41-7 shellacking at Arrowhead. Am I drinking the Bills kool-aid? Maybe a little bit, but this game is also an instance of a West Coast team, on a short week, flying east for a 1:00 game (sorry if I harp on this topic too much, but it's tough to deny). Darren McFadden may very well run wild against the Bills defense, but the Raiders' overall lack of discipline may cost them against the Bills sneaky-decent offense, especially as they move further into the post-Nnamdi era. If none of the above happens, then I promise to not even think about taking the Bills for at least a month.
San Diego (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Lost in the shuffle of Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards against Miami is that the Patriots' defense allowed the Dolphins to move the ball up and down the field most of the night. The Chargers, who only gave up 39 passing yards to Donovan McNabb last week, aren't about to give up another 500 to Brady. The game still figures to be a shootout, but I think the 7 points are more of an overreaction to Week 1 than anything else, even if the Foxborough crowd is nice and "lubed up" at their quarterback's request.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Friday, September 9, 2011
5 for Sunday
After much lockout nonsense, the NFL returns to full-swing this weekend, albeit with the nation's heart heavy in remembrance of 9/11 on its tenth anniversary. Home teams in CAPS.
ST. LOUIS (+4.5) over Philadelphia
Ah, the rites of fall - cooler weather, leaves, and me picking against the Eagles. I readily admit that this is a biased pick, but the Rams are an up-and-coming team. Fortunately, they steer clear of the "new hot team of the year" curse, which this year is a toss up between Detroit and Houston. Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo has made his bacon on solving tough offenses, and while his work will be cut out for him against Mike Vick et al, this is still a pretty good matchup. Why? Because the Eagles, in building a supposed Dream Team, neglected to put together a defense with one actual tackler. The Rams would be well-served to gut the Eagles up the middle with Steven Jackson and use the Sam Bradford-to-Danny Amendola combo on passing downs to move the chains. Anything that keeps the Eagles offense off the field will help the Rams at least keep this close.
CLEVELAND (-6.5) over Cincinnati
I'm not betting on the Browns, I'm just betting against the Bengals. Andy Dalton figures to take the first of many lumps this year at the helm for Cincy, and while A.J. Green is a nice weapon, both of them are learning on the fly together. And how much can the Bengals rely on any running game, with Cedric Benson spending 5 days in jail last week and guard Bobbie Williams suspended? The Browns playbook could consist of nothing more than Peyton Hillis left, Peyton Hillis right, and Peyton Hillis up the middle, and that would be enough to cover this one.
Buffalo (+6) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs snuck up on a lot of people last year, but it may be an even bigger surprise if they return to the playoffs this year. Matt Cassel has been upgraded to probable for this game with a rib injury, but even if he were 100% healthy I still would have given the Bills a puncher's chance. Buffalo is short on talent but not on fight, and played enough solid games against solid teams last year to prove that. If they can roll coverage in Dwayne Bowe's direction (an easier task given the season-ending injury to TE Tony Moeaki) and keep Jamaal Charles from steamrolling people in the open field, then there's no reason that the Bills can't circle the wagons and make this a close, ugly game - a game they could very well win outright.
ARIZONA (-7) over Carolina
If you can't ride a team at home against the Panthers, then when can you ride them? While I'm not ready to hand Kevin Kolb 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns the way an alarming number of people are, there is no question that Larry Fitzgerald will be able to stretch his legs out there for the first time since Kurt Warner retired. Cam Newton makes his NFL debut, and while he may dazzle at times (like many have tended to do against the Cardinals defense), I think he'll cough one up in the second half that will put this game out of reach.
Dallas (+5) over NY JETS
The Cowboys have made some very curious personnel decisions recently, essentially jettisoning 60% of their offensive line in favor of two rookies and a third-year man with one career start. Making matters worse, Terence Newman has been declared out, and RT (9th overall draft pick) Tyron Smith is questionable, along with CB Mike Jenkins. Then why am I still taking Dallas to cover? Because Tony Romo is going to have to get rid of the ball very quickly on Sunday night, which means a ton of work for Jason Witten against a defense that has been victimized by opposing tight ends many times in recent years. And while Rob Ryan's new defense is not going to mesh well immediately, I do believe it will at least free DeMarcus Ware up from double-teams enough to get to Mark Sanchez once or twice and maybe even force a turnover. There is going to be a ton of energy at newly-named MetLife Stadium on the anniversary of 9/11, so an outright Cowboys win would be a big surprise, but not as big a surprise as a lopsided game either way would be.
Last Season: 42-41-2
ST. LOUIS (+4.5) over Philadelphia
Ah, the rites of fall - cooler weather, leaves, and me picking against the Eagles. I readily admit that this is a biased pick, but the Rams are an up-and-coming team. Fortunately, they steer clear of the "new hot team of the year" curse, which this year is a toss up between Detroit and Houston. Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo has made his bacon on solving tough offenses, and while his work will be cut out for him against Mike Vick et al, this is still a pretty good matchup. Why? Because the Eagles, in building a supposed Dream Team, neglected to put together a defense with one actual tackler. The Rams would be well-served to gut the Eagles up the middle with Steven Jackson and use the Sam Bradford-to-Danny Amendola combo on passing downs to move the chains. Anything that keeps the Eagles offense off the field will help the Rams at least keep this close.
CLEVELAND (-6.5) over Cincinnati
I'm not betting on the Browns, I'm just betting against the Bengals. Andy Dalton figures to take the first of many lumps this year at the helm for Cincy, and while A.J. Green is a nice weapon, both of them are learning on the fly together. And how much can the Bengals rely on any running game, with Cedric Benson spending 5 days in jail last week and guard Bobbie Williams suspended? The Browns playbook could consist of nothing more than Peyton Hillis left, Peyton Hillis right, and Peyton Hillis up the middle, and that would be enough to cover this one.
Buffalo (+6) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs snuck up on a lot of people last year, but it may be an even bigger surprise if they return to the playoffs this year. Matt Cassel has been upgraded to probable for this game with a rib injury, but even if he were 100% healthy I still would have given the Bills a puncher's chance. Buffalo is short on talent but not on fight, and played enough solid games against solid teams last year to prove that. If they can roll coverage in Dwayne Bowe's direction (an easier task given the season-ending injury to TE Tony Moeaki) and keep Jamaal Charles from steamrolling people in the open field, then there's no reason that the Bills can't circle the wagons and make this a close, ugly game - a game they could very well win outright.
ARIZONA (-7) over Carolina
If you can't ride a team at home against the Panthers, then when can you ride them? While I'm not ready to hand Kevin Kolb 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns the way an alarming number of people are, there is no question that Larry Fitzgerald will be able to stretch his legs out there for the first time since Kurt Warner retired. Cam Newton makes his NFL debut, and while he may dazzle at times (like many have tended to do against the Cardinals defense), I think he'll cough one up in the second half that will put this game out of reach.
Dallas (+5) over NY JETS
The Cowboys have made some very curious personnel decisions recently, essentially jettisoning 60% of their offensive line in favor of two rookies and a third-year man with one career start. Making matters worse, Terence Newman has been declared out, and RT (9th overall draft pick) Tyron Smith is questionable, along with CB Mike Jenkins. Then why am I still taking Dallas to cover? Because Tony Romo is going to have to get rid of the ball very quickly on Sunday night, which means a ton of work for Jason Witten against a defense that has been victimized by opposing tight ends many times in recent years. And while Rob Ryan's new defense is not going to mesh well immediately, I do believe it will at least free DeMarcus Ware up from double-teams enough to get to Mark Sanchez once or twice and maybe even force a turnover. There is going to be a ton of energy at newly-named MetLife Stadium on the anniversary of 9/11, so an outright Cowboys win would be a big surprise, but not as big a surprise as a lopsided game either way would be.
Last Season: 42-41-2
Sunday, February 6, 2011
The Big Game
We've reached the Super Bowl and all the glitz, glamor and Dallas ice storms that come with it. You know how I feel about the event in general, but once the coin is tossed there may not be a more anticipated four-hour stretch of the sports year. Between the lines, Super Bowl XLV may actually live up to its hype, despite the overload of "storied franchise" headlines we've been fed over the past two weeks. At the very least, the game is assured to be pleasing from a visual standpoint, as the Packers and Steelers have two of the NFL's best uniform combinations (and for a shameless plug, check out your boy getting his name mentioned in Uni Watch here). Anyway, with a little bit of luck I'll crack the dreaded .500 mark for the postseason and end up with a (barely) profitable NFL season.
Green Bay (-3) over Pittsburgh
I probably had this pick made up in my mind before the matchup was even set. I've picked both for Green Bay and against Pittsburgh this entire postseason. To me, winning a Super Bowl comes down to being able to put together four solid quarters and get a big-time, momentum-turning play at the right moment. The Steelers have managed to win both of their playoff games despite playing a putrid first half against the Ravens and an equally putrid second half against the Jets where they were quite fortunate that Mark Sanchez's helmet communication system stopped working down near the goal line. The Packers come in flying high, winning five straight games and getting near-flawless play from Aaron Rodgers and their defense. The two-week layoff between the Conference Championship round and the Super Bowl always intrigues me in terms of coaching and how each staff chooses to approach the game after they have 18-19 games out there on film already. The issue (as I've said numerous times) with facing Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense often lies with how much pressure you plan to put on him - forcing Big Ben to buy time outside of the pocket can often be a death wish. Fortunately for the Packers, the strengths of their defense play very well into that hand (similarly to the Jets, who only gave up just 17 offensive points in a valiant effort two weeks ago). You figure the Packer cornerbacks can deal with Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders down the field, which leaves the linebackers and safeties to deal with Heath Miller and Hines Ward over the middle. If I'm Green Bay, I'll take my chances with the same approach the Jets used and hope that my secondary continues to play out of this world. On the other side of the ball, I won't be surprised if the Packers change everything up and go with a run-heavy approach early on (yeah yeah yeah I know the Pittsburgh run defense only gives up 62 yards a game), if only to try to keep the Steeler defensive backs from getting into a rhythm. In the end, covering the whole field when Green Bay does stretch it out will be too tall a task for Pittsburgh. My gut says a long Greg Jennings touchdown in the fourth quarter puts this one away. Packers, 31-20.
Last Week: 1-1-0
Postseason: 5-5-0
Green Bay (-3) over Pittsburgh
I probably had this pick made up in my mind before the matchup was even set. I've picked both for Green Bay and against Pittsburgh this entire postseason. To me, winning a Super Bowl comes down to being able to put together four solid quarters and get a big-time, momentum-turning play at the right moment. The Steelers have managed to win both of their playoff games despite playing a putrid first half against the Ravens and an equally putrid second half against the Jets where they were quite fortunate that Mark Sanchez's helmet communication system stopped working down near the goal line. The Packers come in flying high, winning five straight games and getting near-flawless play from Aaron Rodgers and their defense. The two-week layoff between the Conference Championship round and the Super Bowl always intrigues me in terms of coaching and how each staff chooses to approach the game after they have 18-19 games out there on film already. The issue (as I've said numerous times) with facing Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense often lies with how much pressure you plan to put on him - forcing Big Ben to buy time outside of the pocket can often be a death wish. Fortunately for the Packers, the strengths of their defense play very well into that hand (similarly to the Jets, who only gave up just 17 offensive points in a valiant effort two weeks ago). You figure the Packer cornerbacks can deal with Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders down the field, which leaves the linebackers and safeties to deal with Heath Miller and Hines Ward over the middle. If I'm Green Bay, I'll take my chances with the same approach the Jets used and hope that my secondary continues to play out of this world. On the other side of the ball, I won't be surprised if the Packers change everything up and go with a run-heavy approach early on (yeah yeah yeah I know the Pittsburgh run defense only gives up 62 yards a game), if only to try to keep the Steeler defensive backs from getting into a rhythm. In the end, covering the whole field when Green Bay does stretch it out will be too tall a task for Pittsburgh. My gut says a long Greg Jennings touchdown in the fourth quarter puts this one away. Packers, 31-20.
Last Week: 1-1-0
Postseason: 5-5-0
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Then There Were Four
This year's Conference Championships goes to show that lately in the NFL, all you need to do is just get in. Not only are both #6 seeds still alive, but both have a viable chance of winning this Sunday - and one of them (Green Bay) is even favored on the road. Home teams, as always, in CAPS.
Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO
I'd at least like to think that I was on the Packers bandwagon for this entire playoff run, but I definitely didn't expect them to put together two defensive performances like they did against the Eagles and Falcons. The under seems like a decent bet considering these two defenses and the likely weather conditions in the Windy City. The networks have been fawning over Aaron Rodgers with good reason, but what I think wins this game will be Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Clay Matthews. Should the Packers get ahead by more than 7 in the second half and trigger Mike Martz's worst pass-happy tendencies, the Bears could be in trouble. Green Bay has made its living off of turnovers and Jay Cutler may very well feed that appetite. I can't shake the image of a convoy of Green Bay defenders streaking down the sideline with an errant Cutler pass to ice the game. Packers, 24-13.
NY Jets (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
I'll admit it - I drank the green kool-aid this week. The Jets punched with New England last week long enough to get Bill Belichick out of his element and now look to slay another recent champion on the road. I give Rex Ryan a ton of credit for changing his defense's approach against the Patriots by blitzing less and relying on his linebackers and secondary to cover for an extended period of time. He'd be well-served to do the same in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when the play breaks down and someone is in his face, so blitzing would invite trouble. If Antonio Cromartie, Darrelle Revis, et al. can cover the way they've been over the past two weeks, they can definitely frustrate Big Ben into a mistake or two. I'll be particularly interested in the kickers in this game. We all know how I feel about Nick Folk, but the Steelers' Shaun Suisham somehow manages to render Folk only the second-worst ex-Dallas kicker in this game. Two more reasons to root for the Jets: no one wants to see Roethlisberger in the Super Bowl, and two weeks of Rex Ryan quotes and headlines could actually make the pre-Super Bowl bearable this year. J-E-T-S, 20-14.
Last Week: 2-2-0
Postseason: 4-4-0
Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO
I'd at least like to think that I was on the Packers bandwagon for this entire playoff run, but I definitely didn't expect them to put together two defensive performances like they did against the Eagles and Falcons. The under seems like a decent bet considering these two defenses and the likely weather conditions in the Windy City. The networks have been fawning over Aaron Rodgers with good reason, but what I think wins this game will be Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Clay Matthews. Should the Packers get ahead by more than 7 in the second half and trigger Mike Martz's worst pass-happy tendencies, the Bears could be in trouble. Green Bay has made its living off of turnovers and Jay Cutler may very well feed that appetite. I can't shake the image of a convoy of Green Bay defenders streaking down the sideline with an errant Cutler pass to ice the game. Packers, 24-13.
NY Jets (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
I'll admit it - I drank the green kool-aid this week. The Jets punched with New England last week long enough to get Bill Belichick out of his element and now look to slay another recent champion on the road. I give Rex Ryan a ton of credit for changing his defense's approach against the Patriots by blitzing less and relying on his linebackers and secondary to cover for an extended period of time. He'd be well-served to do the same in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when the play breaks down and someone is in his face, so blitzing would invite trouble. If Antonio Cromartie, Darrelle Revis, et al. can cover the way they've been over the past two weeks, they can definitely frustrate Big Ben into a mistake or two. I'll be particularly interested in the kickers in this game. We all know how I feel about Nick Folk, but the Steelers' Shaun Suisham somehow manages to render Folk only the second-worst ex-Dallas kicker in this game. Two more reasons to root for the Jets: no one wants to see Roethlisberger in the Super Bowl, and two weeks of Rex Ryan quotes and headlines could actually make the pre-Super Bowl bearable this year. J-E-T-S, 20-14.
Last Week: 2-2-0
Postseason: 4-4-0
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