In what brings a merciful end to my 2011 NCAA season, the BCS Bowls and National Championship Game provide five intriguing matchups spread out over a week's time. As always, the games are played at neutral sites so there are no official "home" teams.
Wisconsin (+4.5) over Oregon (Rose Bowl)
In a classic Big Ten-Pac 10 (oh wait, it's now "B1G-Pac 12") matchup, it's all about the ground game. Also as you'd expect, it's Wisconsin who wants to run through you and Oregon who wants to run around you. Despite the big-play ability of Oregon, I think the Badgers can control the game with the fresh legs of their massive offensive linemen. On the other side of the ball, Oregon's defense is not the better of the two and they tend to have trouble stopping opponents when the game stays close late.
Oklahoma State (-4) over Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)
In what may be the most entertaining, if not the best, of all the big bowl games this season, the Cowboys look to make 2011 the year of "what might have been." while Andrew Luck makes his final dress rehearsal before he becomes the most mentioned name in all of sports this April. Picking a side in this game was simple - Oklahoma State just never stops scoring (in games played outside of Iowa, that is) and taking anything less than a full touchdown against them is not a bet I'd like to be a part of.
Michigan (-3) over Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)
In the game of borderline at-large BCS bids, the Wolverines present an interesting threat to the Hokies. Virginia Tech's only two losses this year have come to Clemson and dual-threat QB Tajh Boyd. Now let's ask ourselves, who is Michigan's top offensive player, what does he bring to the table, and isn't he even better overall than Boyd? That's right, Denard Robinson figures to give Frank Beamer's defense fits. There is a lot to like about Michigan's new-look defense and in an odd twist, Virginia Tech is now down to a third kicker for this game.
West Virginia (+3) over Clemson (Orange Bowl)
The Mountaineers, who bear the honor of "Tallest Midget" coming out of the Big East, meet a Clemson team that is as Jekyll-and-Hyde as they are. The Tigers backed into the ACC title by virtue of having Virginia Tech's number. Truth be told, this game is going to be very ugly and will most likely be the least watchable of the bunch. In that case, give me the points because I still think Clemson peaked about 8 weeks ago.
LSU (+1) over Alabama (BCS National Championship Game)
In the rematch that no one wanted but everyone is secretly looking forward to, SEC haters cringe as a sixth straight national champion will emerge from the conference. To be objective, this truly is a matchup of the two best teams, although the argument can be made that since LSU already beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa this year, why should they have to beat them again for the championship? Whether this game plays out like the 9-6 field goal fest from November or a more conventional, higher-scoring game, I think LSU is better equipped to handle either situation. Their defense is too strong and their offense just a bit more multi-faceted than that of Alabama. Let's hope for a dandy in the Superdome to close out the season.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 31-37-2
Showing posts with label NCAA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA. Show all posts
Monday, January 2, 2012
Friday, December 2, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi - Championship Weekend Edition
Championship Weekend should be the most anticipated slate of the pre-bowl season, but this year it is shaping up to be bit of a dud. Or are they? After all, the games aren't played on paper. (But who are we kidding, some of these matchups might really blow). Home teams in CAPS unless the game is at a neutral site.
OREGON (-31) over UCLA (Friday Night)
UCLA thought so highly of Rick Neuheisel's work in taking them to the Pac-12 Championship Game that they are letting him coach the game despite his dismissal this week. Yes, that was sarcasm. The truth is that the Bruins don't belong in this game, nor do they even belong on the same field as Oregon. But the rules are the rules, and the Ducks will have a nice chance to run some sprints down the Autzen Stadium sideline with the football in hand before giving way to their second-teamers at some point in the 4th quarter. You can't make this spread too big. You really can't.LSU (-13.5) over Georgia (neutral site - Georgia Dome)
If this game weren't a quasi-home game for the Bulldogs, LSU would probably be a favorite by 16 or 17. That's no insult to Georgia, who has won 10 in a row and made everyone forget about Mark Richt supposedly being on the hot seat going into this season. LSU is just on another level. Their defense does not stop flying at you and the offense and special teams seem to take advantage of any little mistake their opponent makes. The Tigers have been put through the gauntlet this year and are still standing at 12-0. Expect a close game after two or three quarters (take Georgia for the halftime line, any of you gambling degenerates out there), but like they have against Arkansas and West Virginia, LSU will pull away late.
Virginia Tech (-7) over Clemson (neutral site - Bank of America Stadium)
These are not the same two teams that met on October 1st, which was a 23-3 win for Clemson. The Hokies have gotten stronger at the right time while the Tigers are, well, in the words of Dennis Green, "what we thought they were." Frankly, I don't see why this line is single digits. Another year, another ACC title won in Charlotte for Virginia Tech.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-3) over Oklahoma
Bedlam will most likely be the best game of the weekend, despite being merely a regular season game and not a conference title game. OK State has not beaten Oklahoma since 2002, and if they don't do it this year, then they may never do it. The Cowboys' sloppiness on offense against Iowa State will spell doom against Oklahoma if they repeat it. I don't think, however, that people put enough stock in the fact that Oklahoma State has just suffered the tragedy of another plane crash within its athletic department on the very day that they lost to Iowa State. This should sure be fun to watch however it unfolds, as the winner may very well be the last team to have the ball.
Michigan State (+10) over Wisconsin (neutral site - Lucas Oil Stadium)
Can anyone tell me why, at a neutral site, this line is this high? I know Wisconsin has appeared to return to its early-season form in the past few weeks, but 10 points? To a Michigan State team who is 10-2 themselves and happened to beat Wisconsin (albeit on a Hail Mary) earlier this season? I know that Wisconsin's running game resembles a fleet of bulldozers on the right day, but both of these teams play good enough defense to keep this game relatively low-scoring. I'll take the points all day and all night.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 28-35-2
Friday, November 25, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
Some of the biggest rivalries in the land will be renewed over the next few days, so if you can't get at least some enjoyment from college football this weekend, then you don't have a pulse. Either way, a hell of a weekend of football is ahead of us, and if we get games that are half as good as they were last week with the matchups on tap for this week, then we'll remember this weekend for a long time to come. Not to mention, we could be facing an excruciating BCS debate where the top 3 teams could all be from the SEC West. Home teams in CAPS.
WEST VIRGINIA (-7) over Pittsburgh (Friday night)
Which Mountaineers team will show up? West Virginia has looked excellent at times this year, and less than pedestrian at other times. You have to think they come out swinging in the Backyard Brawl at home, but the money must have come in hard on Pitt this week since the line opened at 10.5. That opens my eye a bit, but West Virginia can be tough to stop on their fast track at home, so I'll grit my teeth and lay the points against a see-sawing, mediocre Pitt team.
MICHIGAN (-7.5) over Ohio State
Can the tables finally be turned this year? Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State since 2003, but this year they boast the defense that has been, for the most part, sorely lacking over that 8-year drought. The Buckeyes are especially weak this year on offense, which isn't much of a surprise. Will this be close at halftime? Extremely likely. But eventually Ohio State will run out of solutions for the versatility of Michigan's offense, and once the Wolverines get up by 10 or more, you can say goodnight.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-3.5) over Clemson
Well, it was fun while it lasted for Clemson, who got beaten badly last week by NC State and seem light years away from their 8-0 start. South Carolina has handled things as well as team that kicked its quarterback off the team in Week 6 and lost its star running back in Week 7 could possibly handle things, thanks largely to their strong defense. We'll see if the book is truly out on Tajh Boyd, as the Gamecocks' defense is especially suffocating at home.
STANFORD (-7) over Notre Dame
I've been going back and forth on this game all week. Neither the Irish nor the Cardinal looked impressive last week in close victories over Boston College and Cal, respectively. Since I've done terribly with these late West Coast games this year, I thought of going against my gut and taking Notre Dame. But I can't shake the idea that this game is still the men vs. the boys. Has Notre Dame done anything to make you confident that they can travel out west and beat a team like Stanford, who will likely be in their last pre-Heisman showcase for Andrew Luck? Not helping matters for the Irish is last week's injury to RB Jonas Gray. Overall I don't think the Irish will have enough answers for the Stanford offense, to the tune of something like 35-21.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 26-30-2
Arkansas (+12.5) over LSU (Friday afternoon)
Tough to see the Tigers losing, but this seems like it's just too many points to give. Arkansas has gone almost unnoticed in its rise to the #3 ranking, and they have a chance to blow the BCS picture up completely with a win in Baton Rouge on Black Friday, just like the Darren McFadden/Felix Jones-led team did in 2007. Despite the overrated Bobby Petrino being the Razorbacks' coach, I like their chances of giving LSU all they can handle.WEST VIRGINIA (-7) over Pittsburgh (Friday night)
Which Mountaineers team will show up? West Virginia has looked excellent at times this year, and less than pedestrian at other times. You have to think they come out swinging in the Backyard Brawl at home, but the money must have come in hard on Pitt this week since the line opened at 10.5. That opens my eye a bit, but West Virginia can be tough to stop on their fast track at home, so I'll grit my teeth and lay the points against a see-sawing, mediocre Pitt team.
MICHIGAN (-7.5) over Ohio State
Can the tables finally be turned this year? Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State since 2003, but this year they boast the defense that has been, for the most part, sorely lacking over that 8-year drought. The Buckeyes are especially weak this year on offense, which isn't much of a surprise. Will this be close at halftime? Extremely likely. But eventually Ohio State will run out of solutions for the versatility of Michigan's offense, and once the Wolverines get up by 10 or more, you can say goodnight.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-3.5) over Clemson
Well, it was fun while it lasted for Clemson, who got beaten badly last week by NC State and seem light years away from their 8-0 start. South Carolina has handled things as well as team that kicked its quarterback off the team in Week 6 and lost its star running back in Week 7 could possibly handle things, thanks largely to their strong defense. We'll see if the book is truly out on Tajh Boyd, as the Gamecocks' defense is especially suffocating at home.
STANFORD (-7) over Notre Dame
I've been going back and forth on this game all week. Neither the Irish nor the Cardinal looked impressive last week in close victories over Boston College and Cal, respectively. Since I've done terribly with these late West Coast games this year, I thought of going against my gut and taking Notre Dame. But I can't shake the idea that this game is still the men vs. the boys. Has Notre Dame done anything to make you confident that they can travel out west and beat a team like Stanford, who will likely be in their last pre-Heisman showcase for Andrew Luck? Not helping matters for the Irish is last week's injury to RB Jonas Gray. Overall I don't think the Irish will have enough answers for the Stanford offense, to the tune of something like 35-21.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 26-30-2
Thursday, November 24, 2011
5 for the Weekend
3-2 Last week puts me at 31-29 on the season.
Friday
Arkansas (+12.5) @ LSU 2:30 CBS
Well the majority of these games have been close and I'm betting that this one wont be different. Arkansas will battle for 4 quarters as they have so much to play for. LSU by 10.
Saturday
Alabama (-21) @ Auburn 3:30 CBS
Penn State (+15) @ Wisconsin
*****Lou pinch-hitting for Kevin here for the remainder of the column, as he is on a pilgrimage to Ann Arbor this weekend. I assure you that the remaining two picks are his.*****
Michigan (-8) over Ohio State
Virginia (+5) over Virginia Tech
Come on, you guys really didn't think he was taking OSU, did you?
Friday
Arkansas (+12.5) @ LSU 2:30 CBS
Well the majority of these games have been close and I'm betting that this one wont be different. Arkansas will battle for 4 quarters as they have so much to play for. LSU by 10.
Saturday
Alabama (-21) @ Auburn 3:30 CBS
Penn State (+15) @ Wisconsin
*****Lou pinch-hitting for Kevin here for the remainder of the column, as he is on a pilgrimage to Ann Arbor this weekend. I assure you that the remaining two picks are his.*****
Michigan (-8) over Ohio State
Virginia (+5) over Virginia Tech
Come on, you guys really didn't think he was taking OSU, did you?
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
The Saturday before Thanksgiving used to be arguably the best college football day of the year, but now thanks to the drawn out regular season we are forced to wait until next week for a great college football weekend. Of course, spots are still up for grabs for Championship Saturday, but the only possible really intriguing storyline for this week would be if a top team or two had a slip-up. Home teams in CAPS.
MICHIGAN (-3.5) over NEBRASKA
The Wolverines are undefeated at home this year and are playing much better defense than anyone had expected of them since Week 2. I'm not crazy about the extra half point on the line (this game was an even 3-pointer if I've ever seen one), but if you like the favorite to win, covering 3.5 is the same as covering 3 (I moonlight as Captain Obvious, it's fun), so no huge deal in the end. These teams are very evenly matched but I think Denard Robinson is a better overall dual threat than Taylor Martinez, as long as he doesn't add to his alarming stack of 13 INTs on the season. Overall, I don't know if Nebraska will have the speed on defense to keep Michigan under 28 points.
OHIO STATE (-6.5) over Penn State
All of a sudden, some bling, cars, and tattoos don't sound so terrible do they? The Buckeyes are still incredibly hard to root for but I'll grin and bear it for this week and this week only, for reasons that I think I made clear last week.
Oklahoma (-16) over BAYLOR
I really wanted to give Baylor a puncher's chance here, but they've been beaten handily by every competent team they've played since the upset of TCU in Week 1, and are coming off two squeakers over Kansas and Missouri. We all know how the Sooners like to light up the scoreboard (especially when they need a few more style points for the BCS), and I expect them to put up a basketball-type number against a Baylor defense that gives up an alarming 36 points a game (40.5 if you take away the Week 2 shutout against Stephen F. Austin). Robert Griffin III won't be able to do it alone for Baylor against Oklahoma, so I'm comfortable giving this many points on the road.
Kansas State (+8.5) over TEXAS
First off, this line looks 3 points too high right off the bat. Second, it opened at 7.5 and has gotten all the way up to 9 and 9.5 in some books, meaning considerable money has come in on Texas. I must be missing something here. The Longhorns are still rebuilding and don't exactly score the way they used to, so I can't really see them getting up quickly on K-State and forcing them out of their game offensively. Kansas State is too good to be this big an underdog to anyone who is ranked outside the Top 10, let alone a team who isn't ranked in either poll and is hanging on for dear life at #23 in the BCS.
OREGON (-14.5) over Southern California
You could make the argument that right now, Oregon is playing the best football of any team in the country. Now that Oklahoma State has fallen off, the Ducks, whose only loss this year came to #1 LSU in Week 1, are in a dead heat with Alabama for the soon-to-be-vacant #2 ranking. It's just a matter of taking care of their business from here on out for Oregon, who played a very impressive game at Stanford last week and will host the Pac-12 Championship Game if they can get past USC this week and Oregon State next week. USC has a chance in this game, and it wouldn't even surprise me if it is a one-score game in the 3rd quarter. But Oregon just does not stop scoring.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season: 24-29-2
MICHIGAN (-3.5) over NEBRASKA
The Wolverines are undefeated at home this year and are playing much better defense than anyone had expected of them since Week 2. I'm not crazy about the extra half point on the line (this game was an even 3-pointer if I've ever seen one), but if you like the favorite to win, covering 3.5 is the same as covering 3 (I moonlight as Captain Obvious, it's fun), so no huge deal in the end. These teams are very evenly matched but I think Denard Robinson is a better overall dual threat than Taylor Martinez, as long as he doesn't add to his alarming stack of 13 INTs on the season. Overall, I don't know if Nebraska will have the speed on defense to keep Michigan under 28 points.
OHIO STATE (-6.5) over Penn State
All of a sudden, some bling, cars, and tattoos don't sound so terrible do they? The Buckeyes are still incredibly hard to root for but I'll grin and bear it for this week and this week only, for reasons that I think I made clear last week.
Oklahoma (-16) over BAYLOR
I really wanted to give Baylor a puncher's chance here, but they've been beaten handily by every competent team they've played since the upset of TCU in Week 1, and are coming off two squeakers over Kansas and Missouri. We all know how the Sooners like to light up the scoreboard (especially when they need a few more style points for the BCS), and I expect them to put up a basketball-type number against a Baylor defense that gives up an alarming 36 points a game (40.5 if you take away the Week 2 shutout against Stephen F. Austin). Robert Griffin III won't be able to do it alone for Baylor against Oklahoma, so I'm comfortable giving this many points on the road.
Kansas State (+8.5) over TEXAS
First off, this line looks 3 points too high right off the bat. Second, it opened at 7.5 and has gotten all the way up to 9 and 9.5 in some books, meaning considerable money has come in on Texas. I must be missing something here. The Longhorns are still rebuilding and don't exactly score the way they used to, so I can't really see them getting up quickly on K-State and forcing them out of their game offensively. Kansas State is too good to be this big an underdog to anyone who is ranked outside the Top 10, let alone a team who isn't ranked in either poll and is hanging on for dear life at #23 in the BCS.
OREGON (-14.5) over Southern California
You could make the argument that right now, Oregon is playing the best football of any team in the country. Now that Oklahoma State has fallen off, the Ducks, whose only loss this year came to #1 LSU in Week 1, are in a dead heat with Alabama for the soon-to-be-vacant #2 ranking. It's just a matter of taking care of their business from here on out for Oregon, who played a very impressive game at Stanford last week and will host the Pac-12 Championship Game if they can get past USC this week and Oregon State next week. USC has a chance in this game, and it wouldn't even surprise me if it is a one-score game in the 3rd quarter. But Oregon just does not stop scoring.
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season: 24-29-2
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
A brief side-tracking from the absolute worst scandal in college football history to examine this week's actual on-field matters. Another pitiful week last week has helped Kevin complete a ferocious comeback from his early-season hole. Home teams in CAPS.
Virginia Tech (-1) over GEORGIA TECH (Thursday Night)
Did the Yellow Jackets blow their wad against previously-undefeated Clemson last week? Do the Hokies still stand as the class of the ACC? This game will shed light on both questions. The most interesting matchup is Virginia Tech's outstanding run defense against Georgia Tech's meal ticket of a running game. My guess is that the Georgia Tech team that shows up on Thursday resembles the group that lost to Virginia more than the group that beat Clemson. Hokies by something like 24-17.
Nebraska (-3) over PENN STATE
Screw Penn State. Screw Joe Paterno, screw their administration, and screw the moron students who showed up at Paterno's house to rally in support of the old man. And send Jerry Sandusky to a place where he is regularly on the receiving end of the unspeakable crimes he committed. Even the death penalty is too kind for that sack of shit. The end.
Texas Christian (+15) over BOISE STATE
If anyone is going to conquer the Smurf Turf, it's going to be TCU. The Horned Frogs have their work cut out for them in this attempt to spoil the Boise dream for another year. It's highly likely that Kellen Moore takes another step toward a trip to New York in the second week of December, but I still think that this is too many points. TCU is going to try to run it all day to keep the tempo under control, but in the end it's still going to take 31+ to win. I think Boise takes it 34-24 but TCU has enough to cover.
Auburn (+13) over GEORGIA
This line was almost double what I thought it was going to be for a game where the underdog is ranked 20th and the favorite ranked 15th. Has Auburn peaked? It's possible. Georgia gets standout RB Isaiah Crowell back from his suspension, but that alone doesn't strike me as enough to think they're going to put up 35+ in this game, despite Auburn's horrific, 185-ypg run defense. The Bulldogs will clearly have 2010 revenge on their mind (as most of Auburn's opponents have this year), but the Tigers are still decent enough to hang around.
STANFORD (-3.5) over Oregon
College Gameday makes its way to Palo Alto this week to to focus on this game and maybe help us get our minds off the elephant in the room. Oregon, who is 8-0 since an opening loss to #1 LSU, presents Stanford its biggest challenge yet. It is going to be a question of whether the Cardinal has enough defensive speed to withstand Oregon's running attack and get Andrew Luck back on the field. Stanford gives up a paltry 78.9 ypg on the ground, but then again, most teams usually have to abandon the run against them pretty quickly. It will be interesting to see how Stanford fares against a team that can score with them, but don't act like their OT victory over USC two weeks ago is some sort of sign that they're headed downward. There's still too much to like about Stanford to not back them in this game.
Last Week : 1-4-0
Season: 22-27-1
Virginia Tech (-1) over GEORGIA TECH (Thursday Night)
Did the Yellow Jackets blow their wad against previously-undefeated Clemson last week? Do the Hokies still stand as the class of the ACC? This game will shed light on both questions. The most interesting matchup is Virginia Tech's outstanding run defense against Georgia Tech's meal ticket of a running game. My guess is that the Georgia Tech team that shows up on Thursday resembles the group that lost to Virginia more than the group that beat Clemson. Hokies by something like 24-17.
Nebraska (-3) over PENN STATE
Screw Penn State. Screw Joe Paterno, screw their administration, and screw the moron students who showed up at Paterno's house to rally in support of the old man. And send Jerry Sandusky to a place where he is regularly on the receiving end of the unspeakable crimes he committed. Even the death penalty is too kind for that sack of shit. The end.
Texas Christian (+15) over BOISE STATE
If anyone is going to conquer the Smurf Turf, it's going to be TCU. The Horned Frogs have their work cut out for them in this attempt to spoil the Boise dream for another year. It's highly likely that Kellen Moore takes another step toward a trip to New York in the second week of December, but I still think that this is too many points. TCU is going to try to run it all day to keep the tempo under control, but in the end it's still going to take 31+ to win. I think Boise takes it 34-24 but TCU has enough to cover.
Auburn (+13) over GEORGIA
This line was almost double what I thought it was going to be for a game where the underdog is ranked 20th and the favorite ranked 15th. Has Auburn peaked? It's possible. Georgia gets standout RB Isaiah Crowell back from his suspension, but that alone doesn't strike me as enough to think they're going to put up 35+ in this game, despite Auburn's horrific, 185-ypg run defense. The Bulldogs will clearly have 2010 revenge on their mind (as most of Auburn's opponents have this year), but the Tigers are still decent enough to hang around.
STANFORD (-3.5) over Oregon
College Gameday makes its way to Palo Alto this week to to focus on this game and maybe help us get our minds off the elephant in the room. Oregon, who is 8-0 since an opening loss to #1 LSU, presents Stanford its biggest challenge yet. It is going to be a question of whether the Cardinal has enough defensive speed to withstand Oregon's running attack and get Andrew Luck back on the field. Stanford gives up a paltry 78.9 ypg on the ground, but then again, most teams usually have to abandon the run against them pretty quickly. It will be interesting to see how Stanford fares against a team that can score with them, but don't act like their OT victory over USC two weeks ago is some sort of sign that they're headed downward. There's still too much to like about Stanford to not back them in this game.
Last Week : 1-4-0
Season: 22-27-1
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
Before we get going, here are last week's picks, which I promise were submitted before the deadline. A weekend-long wedding in a bizarre October snowstorm has a tendency to prevent a guy from posting things.
Michigan St (+4) over NEBRASKA
Oklahoma (-13.5) over KANSAS STATE
Georgia (-3) over Florida
Clemson (-3.5) over GEORGIA TECH
Wisconsin (-7) over OHIO STATE
So, now that the insane month of October has ended and another 2-3 week is behind me, it's time to get back over .500. Home teams in CAPS.
WEST VIRGINIA (-13) over Louisville
By the infamous "Comparative Score Theory," taking Louisville and the 13 points is a slam dunk. WVU was embarrassed by Syracuse 49-23 two weeks ago, only for Louisville to go ahead and beat the Orange 27-10 last week. However, games are played on turf, not on algorithms, and even though my teeth are clenched, I think the Mountaineers, who finally woke up in the second half against Rutgers last week, will have enough at home to win this game comfortably. I'll also be interested to see what has been made of all the Big East signage in and around Milan Puskar Stadium this week.
OKLAHOMA (-13.5) over Texas A&M
The Sooners have had their stinker for the year, and it came against Texas Tech. One thing you know about Bob Stoops is that he loves to build the résumé when he has the chance, and Oklahoma needs some very convincing wins down the stretch if they are to get back into the BCS picture. I just have an overwhelming feeling that Oklahoma rolls in this one - there's no way they put up two consecutive subpar efforts at home, is there?
South Carolina (+5) over ARKANSAS
Something has to give here. South Carolina threw their quarterback off the team a few weeks ago, and Arkansas is coming off two straight squeakers against teams (Ole Miss and Vanderbilt) that they should have handled easily. Despite their off-field drama and Ol' Ballcoach who made his name at the helm of offensive juggernauts, the Gamecocks have been carried to a 7-1 record this year by their superb defense, which is averaging 7.4 points surrendered in the past 5 games. I'll gladly take the 5 points in what could easily be a low-scoring game.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-21) over Kansas State
At this rate you just have to keep riding Mike Gundy's Cowboys, who in streaking to 8-0 have covered every game this year, with the exception of their 61-34 opening win over Louisiana-Lafayette in which they were favored by 38 points. Kansas State is a good team that showed last week against Oklahoma that it it not quite ready for the big boys in their conference. The most alarming stat? The Wildcats throw for only 130 yards per game, so say goodnight if Oklahoma State gets out to a two-score lead. And considering the way Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon, and the rest of the bright orange blur tend to operate, that lead could easily be there after the first 10 minutes.
ALABAMA (-4.5) over Louisiana State
Ladies and gentlemen, your heavyweight bout for this evening showcases #1 LSU in unfriendly Bryant-Denny Stadium against #2 Alabama. Do I have to say much more? 4.5 is a ton of points to give to the supposed best team in the nation, but having seen both play a good amount this year, I'm convinced that Alabama has a better team top-to-bottom. I expect a final score along the lines of 21-14 and a game that comes down to the end, with 'Bama and Trent Richardson eating up the clock and getting a few late first downs to ice it.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 21-23-1
So, now that the insane month of October has ended and another 2-3 week is behind me, it's time to get back over .500. Home teams in CAPS.
WEST VIRGINIA (-13) over Louisville
By the infamous "Comparative Score Theory," taking Louisville and the 13 points is a slam dunk. WVU was embarrassed by Syracuse 49-23 two weeks ago, only for Louisville to go ahead and beat the Orange 27-10 last week. However, games are played on turf, not on algorithms, and even though my teeth are clenched, I think the Mountaineers, who finally woke up in the second half against Rutgers last week, will have enough at home to win this game comfortably. I'll also be interested to see what has been made of all the Big East signage in and around Milan Puskar Stadium this week.
OKLAHOMA (-13.5) over Texas A&M
The Sooners have had their stinker for the year, and it came against Texas Tech. One thing you know about Bob Stoops is that he loves to build the résumé when he has the chance, and Oklahoma needs some very convincing wins down the stretch if they are to get back into the BCS picture. I just have an overwhelming feeling that Oklahoma rolls in this one - there's no way they put up two consecutive subpar efforts at home, is there?
South Carolina (+5) over ARKANSAS
Something has to give here. South Carolina threw their quarterback off the team a few weeks ago, and Arkansas is coming off two straight squeakers against teams (Ole Miss and Vanderbilt) that they should have handled easily. Despite their off-field drama and Ol' Ballcoach who made his name at the helm of offensive juggernauts, the Gamecocks have been carried to a 7-1 record this year by their superb defense, which is averaging 7.4 points surrendered in the past 5 games. I'll gladly take the 5 points in what could easily be a low-scoring game.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-21) over Kansas State
At this rate you just have to keep riding Mike Gundy's Cowboys, who in streaking to 8-0 have covered every game this year, with the exception of their 61-34 opening win over Louisiana-Lafayette in which they were favored by 38 points. Kansas State is a good team that showed last week against Oklahoma that it it not quite ready for the big boys in their conference. The most alarming stat? The Wildcats throw for only 130 yards per game, so say goodnight if Oklahoma State gets out to a two-score lead. And considering the way Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon, and the rest of the bright orange blur tend to operate, that lead could easily be there after the first 10 minutes.
ALABAMA (-4.5) over Louisiana State
Ladies and gentlemen, your heavyweight bout for this evening showcases #1 LSU in unfriendly Bryant-Denny Stadium against #2 Alabama. Do I have to say much more? 4.5 is a ton of points to give to the supposed best team in the nation, but having seen both play a good amount this year, I'm convinced that Alabama has a better team top-to-bottom. I expect a final score along the lines of 21-14 and a game that comes down to the end, with 'Bama and Trent Richardson eating up the clock and getting a few late first downs to ice it.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 21-23-1
Friday, October 21, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi (La Retourne!)
I'm back after a few weeks of not getting a column up here, but starting a new job, moving, not having internet, and getting the flu will do that to you. Thankfully I'm now settled in and once again able to maintain a steady body temperature. Even though there were no columns published, I still got 5 picks in each week and got them on the record via email or text to Kevin, and those picks were:
Week 6 (3-2-0)
Miami (+6) over VIRGINIA TECH
Oklahoma (-10.5) over Texas
ARKANSAS (-8) over Auburn
NEBRASKA (-10) over Ohio St
Florida (+12) over LSU
Week 7 (2-3-0)
Baylor (+9.5) over TEXAS A&M
Michigan (+3) over MICH ST
Oklahoma State (-7) over TEXAS
Florida (-2) over AUBURN
Arizona State (+14.5) over OREGON
So, a naturally mediocre 5-5 over the past few weeks brings us to Week 8, which contains considerably fewer juicy matchups when compared to the past month or so. Home teams in CAPS.
West Virginia (-14) over SYRACUSE (Friday Night)
The Orange are a respectable 4-2, but now they run into by far the best team that they are going to see this season. West Virginia should frighten the hell out of me in this spot laying double digits on the road in what could be a fired-up Carrier Dome, but the Mountaineers have been a second-half team all year and should be able to flex their muscle over the course of 60 minutes and show Syracuse why 4-2 in the Big East is, well, 4-2 in the Big East. Dana Holgorsen's offense keeps scoring and scoring, and Syracuse does not figure to be able to do enough through the air to keep up.
Southern California (+8.5) over NOTRE DAME
I'm sorry, but I just don't get it. Neither team in this game is ranked. USC is 5-1, Notre Dame 4-2. The Trojans don't have a signature win and came up short in their only really tough game thus far (Arizona State). Notre Dame does have a signature win (Week 3 vs. Michigan State), but is that plus two straight trouncings of mediocre Air Force and Purdue enough to make the Irish this big of a favorite? While it's fair to say Notre Dame has gotten its head out of its ass after their 0-2 start, I just don't see their defense intimidating three-year starter Matt Barkley one bit. Give me the points and let's hope for a good one.
Wisconsin (-7.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
I really wanted to take Sparty here, but Wisconsin is too good. They beat the hell out of you up front on offense, and while Michigan State defends the run very well, it's very tough to hold up against the Badgers' offensive line for 60 minutes. Do the Spartans have an answer for Russell Wilson? In the end, I don't think they will. This has a chance to be a very good game, but I think the Badgers go on a long 4th-quarter touchdown drive to go up by 11 points and send the fans toward the exits in East Lansing.
LSU (-22.5) over Auburn
Will the real Auburn team please rise and come to the front of the line? The reigning national champions (remember that?) got embarrassed two weeks ago by Arkansas but rebounded to beat Florida last week. The difference? Auburn hasn't put together a truly solid effort on the road yet this season. LSU, meanwhile, is lights-out at home on both sides of the ball (41.2 ppg offensively, 199.5 total ypg allowed defensively). The huge spread here is begging you to take Auburn, so I'll go the other way and say LSU covers it. Who knows, maybe The Mad Hatter will have another fancy special teams play up his sleeve, like the fake punt against Florida that I can't stop watching.
Washington (+21) over STANFORD
The 5-1 Huskies are making a cameo in the Top 25 and present The Andrew Luck Show with their biggest (and maybe their only) test to date before the schedule gets serious down the stretch. Will the Cardinal be looking past Washington and toward the upcoming month, which features dates with USC and Oregon before closing out the regular season against Notre Dame? I'm not a big believer in that cop-out theory (I love it when blowhards act as if they're in a team's locker room and on their practice field every day), but Washington has a lot to prove in Palo Alto and since they played Nebraska pretty well in an equally tough spot in Week 3, I'll cross my fingers and take my chances being spotted 3 touchdowns.
Season: 17-17-1
Week 6 (3-2-0)
Miami (+6) over VIRGINIA TECH
Oklahoma (-10.5) over Texas
ARKANSAS (-8) over Auburn
NEBRASKA (-10) over Ohio St
Florida (+12) over LSU
Week 7 (2-3-0)
Baylor (+9.5) over TEXAS A&M
Michigan (+3) over MICH ST
Oklahoma State (-7) over TEXAS
Florida (-2) over AUBURN
Arizona State (+14.5) over OREGON
So, a naturally mediocre 5-5 over the past few weeks brings us to Week 8, which contains considerably fewer juicy matchups when compared to the past month or so. Home teams in CAPS.
West Virginia (-14) over SYRACUSE (Friday Night)
The Orange are a respectable 4-2, but now they run into by far the best team that they are going to see this season. West Virginia should frighten the hell out of me in this spot laying double digits on the road in what could be a fired-up Carrier Dome, but the Mountaineers have been a second-half team all year and should be able to flex their muscle over the course of 60 minutes and show Syracuse why 4-2 in the Big East is, well, 4-2 in the Big East. Dana Holgorsen's offense keeps scoring and scoring, and Syracuse does not figure to be able to do enough through the air to keep up.
Southern California (+8.5) over NOTRE DAME
I'm sorry, but I just don't get it. Neither team in this game is ranked. USC is 5-1, Notre Dame 4-2. The Trojans don't have a signature win and came up short in their only really tough game thus far (Arizona State). Notre Dame does have a signature win (Week 3 vs. Michigan State), but is that plus two straight trouncings of mediocre Air Force and Purdue enough to make the Irish this big of a favorite? While it's fair to say Notre Dame has gotten its head out of its ass after their 0-2 start, I just don't see their defense intimidating three-year starter Matt Barkley one bit. Give me the points and let's hope for a good one.
Wisconsin (-7.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
I really wanted to take Sparty here, but Wisconsin is too good. They beat the hell out of you up front on offense, and while Michigan State defends the run very well, it's very tough to hold up against the Badgers' offensive line for 60 minutes. Do the Spartans have an answer for Russell Wilson? In the end, I don't think they will. This has a chance to be a very good game, but I think the Badgers go on a long 4th-quarter touchdown drive to go up by 11 points and send the fans toward the exits in East Lansing.
LSU (-22.5) over Auburn
Will the real Auburn team please rise and come to the front of the line? The reigning national champions (remember that?) got embarrassed two weeks ago by Arkansas but rebounded to beat Florida last week. The difference? Auburn hasn't put together a truly solid effort on the road yet this season. LSU, meanwhile, is lights-out at home on both sides of the ball (41.2 ppg offensively, 199.5 total ypg allowed defensively). The huge spread here is begging you to take Auburn, so I'll go the other way and say LSU covers it. Who knows, maybe The Mad Hatter will have another fancy special teams play up his sleeve, like the fake punt against Florida that I can't stop watching.
Washington (+21) over STANFORD
The 5-1 Huskies are making a cameo in the Top 25 and present The Andrew Luck Show with their biggest (and maybe their only) test to date before the schedule gets serious down the stretch. Will the Cardinal be looking past Washington and toward the upcoming month, which features dates with USC and Oregon before closing out the regular season against Notre Dame? I'm not a big believer in that cop-out theory (I love it when blowhards act as if they're in a team's locker room and on their practice field every day), but Washington has a lot to prove in Palo Alto and since they played Nebraska pretty well in an equally tough spot in Week 3, I'll cross my fingers and take my chances being spotted 3 touchdowns.
Season: 17-17-1
Friday, September 30, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
I must warn anyone who is thinking of using my respectable record thus far as justification for taking my picks to the bookie. October is here, and so is playoff baseball, which means I might watch one college football game a week in earnest. Oh well, bettor beware I suppose. Home teams in CAPS.
Texas A&M (-2.5) over ARKANSAS (neutral site - Cowboys Stadium)
It is technically a home game in Arlington, TX for the Razorbacks, but in actuality this should turn out to be an Aggies party. The Hogs were outclassed by Alabama last week, while A&M had a more respectable showing (albeit, still a losing one) against Oklahoma State. Despite the karma of Arkansas playing at JerryWorld and making the day of one of their proudest alums, the Texas A&M defense should be more than enough to cover this one.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-10) over Auburn
The ol' Ballcoach must be salivating over the chance to let loose on Auburn's miserable pass defense. I picked against the Gamecocks last week because they tend to play down to their opponents, but this is a chance to avenge last year's two losses to Auburn, and despite the Tigers being Cam Newton-less these days, I still think that means something. Even Stephen (see what I did there?) Garcia should make a day of it early, then Marcus Lattimore can put it away late. South Carolina by two touchdowns.
VIRGINIA TECH (-7) over Clemson
Thanks to two straight big wins by Clemson, the line here is quite manageable. I have a feeling that the pendulum will swing back in the other direction for the Tigers in Blacksburg, which is still an extremely tough place to play, especially for ACC opponents. Until the tradition is bucked, ride Beamerball and Virginia Tech's in-conference success. Oh, and the Hokies' stellar defense doesn't hurt either.
Alabama (-3.5) over FLORIDA
It takes a lot for someone to back a road favorite in a night game at The Swamp, but for my money Alabama is still the best team in the country and Florida is still maybe a year away from getting back to the top of the mountain. Either way, this game should be close-fought and relatively low-scoring, but wholly entertaining all the while. Something has to give in this meeting of potent offenses and suffocating defenses. My gut says the Tide pull out a late touchdown drive and take it by a score along the lines of 17-10.
Nebraska (+10) over WISCONSIN
The line here is a bit fishy, almost so high that you have to take Wisconsin just because. The Badgers hold the edge in most statistical categories and have the atmosphere under the lights at Camp Randall Stadium on their side, but are they really 10 points better than Nebraska? I understand that Russell Wilson has the ability to take this game over by himself, but if he doesn't, there's no reason that Bo Pelini's Cornhuskers can't keep this a one-score game in Madison.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 11-8-1
Texas A&M (-2.5) over ARKANSAS (neutral site - Cowboys Stadium)
It is technically a home game in Arlington, TX for the Razorbacks, but in actuality this should turn out to be an Aggies party. The Hogs were outclassed by Alabama last week, while A&M had a more respectable showing (albeit, still a losing one) against Oklahoma State. Despite the karma of Arkansas playing at JerryWorld and making the day of one of their proudest alums, the Texas A&M defense should be more than enough to cover this one.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-10) over Auburn
The ol' Ballcoach must be salivating over the chance to let loose on Auburn's miserable pass defense. I picked against the Gamecocks last week because they tend to play down to their opponents, but this is a chance to avenge last year's two losses to Auburn, and despite the Tigers being Cam Newton-less these days, I still think that means something. Even Stephen (see what I did there?) Garcia should make a day of it early, then Marcus Lattimore can put it away late. South Carolina by two touchdowns.
VIRGINIA TECH (-7) over Clemson
Thanks to two straight big wins by Clemson, the line here is quite manageable. I have a feeling that the pendulum will swing back in the other direction for the Tigers in Blacksburg, which is still an extremely tough place to play, especially for ACC opponents. Until the tradition is bucked, ride Beamerball and Virginia Tech's in-conference success. Oh, and the Hokies' stellar defense doesn't hurt either.
Alabama (-3.5) over FLORIDA
It takes a lot for someone to back a road favorite in a night game at The Swamp, but for my money Alabama is still the best team in the country and Florida is still maybe a year away from getting back to the top of the mountain. Either way, this game should be close-fought and relatively low-scoring, but wholly entertaining all the while. Something has to give in this meeting of potent offenses and suffocating defenses. My gut says the Tide pull out a late touchdown drive and take it by a score along the lines of 17-10.
Nebraska (+10) over WISCONSIN
The line here is a bit fishy, almost so high that you have to take Wisconsin just because. The Badgers hold the edge in most statistical categories and have the atmosphere under the lights at Camp Randall Stadium on their side, but are they really 10 points better than Nebraska? I understand that Russell Wilson has the ability to take this game over by himself, but if he doesn't, there's no reason that Bo Pelini's Cornhuskers can't keep this a one-score game in Madison.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 11-8-1
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
A very strong Week 3 has pushed me over .500 for the first time this year. Now that this season has gotten into full swing, Week 4 has some of the more interesting matchups that you'll see in the month of September. Home teams in CAPS.
ALABAMA (-12) over Arkansas
Simply put, the defense of the Tide is just too tough, allowing only 170 total yards per game and 6 points per game. Arkansas pushed 'Bama to the edge at home in this game last year, but that was with Ryan Mallett at the helm. The Hogs haven't played anyone yet, and the sight of a wide-eyed Tyler Wilson at Bryant-Denny Stadium come 3:30 on Saturday would be zero shock. At first glance this seems like too many points to give to an Arkansas team ranked 15th, but less than two TD's at home with Alabama isn't a terrible line.
Oklahoma State (+4.5) over TEXAS A&M
The 12th Man at Kyle Field in College Station must really be that powerful, because it has encouraged the public to bet A&M enough to pull this line up from its open at 3. Were this a night game and not a 3:30 game, I'd be more of a believer in the home team and crowd being able to disrupt the high-flying Oklahoma State offense. The Aggies quite possibly have the better overall team (i.e. they don't take an "NBA All-Star Game" approach to defense), but giving 4.5 points to a team that puts up pinball numbers on offense is too much for me to pass up. The Cowboys and Dez Bryant-clone Justin Blackmon would love for this to become a shootout, because in the end the Aggies figure not to be able to trade touchdowns all day.
Vanderbilt (+16) over SOUTH CAROLINA
The Gamecocks struggled with a Georgia team that they are better than, and are now coming off a 24-21 scare at home against Navy. Vandy is 3-0 and has caught enough eyes to warrant an article in the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated. Is this an instance of Vandy being overvalued and South Carolina being undervalued? Quite possibly. However, I can't go against my gut, which says that Vanderbilt's run defense (85.7 ypg) may force the ol' Ballcoach to rely more on Stephen Garcia to put up the points in this game. Is anyone comfortable laying more than two scores with Stephen Garcia right now? An outright win would be a miracle but the Commodores have done a lot to leave their past ineptitude behind, and a respectable showing would be a good indicator of a new attitude in Nashville.
CLEMSON (-2.5) over Florida State
I feel bad for anyone who hopped on this game at the beginning of the week when the Seminoles were a 3-point road favorite. Thanks to a combination of FSU quarterback E.J. Manuel's injury and reaction to Clemson's win over Auburn and the Noles' loss to Oklahoma, the line has nearly made a complete pendulum swing to Clemson -2.5. Were Manuel not doubtful for this game, I'd be all over FSU to bounce back here, but it's too much to ask right now. I'll roll the dice for less than a field goal in hopes that Clemson handles this case of relative prosperity well.
WEST VIRGINIA (+6) over Louisiana State
I'd have loved for this spread to be in the 7.5 vicinity, especially since LSU will have had 9 days of rest coming into this primetime affair. But the Mountaineers' 3-0 start and the fact that this game has been flexed into the 8pm slot (with College Gameday making the trip, no less) has prevented the line from ballooning. LSU plays superb defense but doesn't dazzle offensively, which could keep the scoring relatively low at Milan Puskar Stadium - in which case, 6 points is pretty inviting. The Mountaineers have had this date circled on the calendar for a long time and it is very likely their biggest game of the regular season. Some will still insist that the Backyard Brawl vs. Pittsburgh is always the biggest, but WVU's Big East schedule looks like more of a formality than anything right now. I expect Dana Holgorsen's 16th-ranked team to come out flying on Saturday night, and maybe a wrinkle or trick at the right time can help pull this game out against the #3 Tigers. Kevin and I, along with blog friends and readers PJ and Tony, will be making the trip for this one, and I can speak for all of us when I say that I hope that no couches will be safe come 11:30pm in Morgantown.
Last Week: 4-1-0
Season: 8-6-1
ALABAMA (-12) over Arkansas
Simply put, the defense of the Tide is just too tough, allowing only 170 total yards per game and 6 points per game. Arkansas pushed 'Bama to the edge at home in this game last year, but that was with Ryan Mallett at the helm. The Hogs haven't played anyone yet, and the sight of a wide-eyed Tyler Wilson at Bryant-Denny Stadium come 3:30 on Saturday would be zero shock. At first glance this seems like too many points to give to an Arkansas team ranked 15th, but less than two TD's at home with Alabama isn't a terrible line.
Oklahoma State (+4.5) over TEXAS A&M
The 12th Man at Kyle Field in College Station must really be that powerful, because it has encouraged the public to bet A&M enough to pull this line up from its open at 3. Were this a night game and not a 3:30 game, I'd be more of a believer in the home team and crowd being able to disrupt the high-flying Oklahoma State offense. The Aggies quite possibly have the better overall team (i.e. they don't take an "NBA All-Star Game" approach to defense), but giving 4.5 points to a team that puts up pinball numbers on offense is too much for me to pass up. The Cowboys and Dez Bryant-clone Justin Blackmon would love for this to become a shootout, because in the end the Aggies figure not to be able to trade touchdowns all day.
Vanderbilt (+16) over SOUTH CAROLINA
The Gamecocks struggled with a Georgia team that they are better than, and are now coming off a 24-21 scare at home against Navy. Vandy is 3-0 and has caught enough eyes to warrant an article in the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated. Is this an instance of Vandy being overvalued and South Carolina being undervalued? Quite possibly. However, I can't go against my gut, which says that Vanderbilt's run defense (85.7 ypg) may force the ol' Ballcoach to rely more on Stephen Garcia to put up the points in this game. Is anyone comfortable laying more than two scores with Stephen Garcia right now? An outright win would be a miracle but the Commodores have done a lot to leave their past ineptitude behind, and a respectable showing would be a good indicator of a new attitude in Nashville.
CLEMSON (-2.5) over Florida State
I feel bad for anyone who hopped on this game at the beginning of the week when the Seminoles were a 3-point road favorite. Thanks to a combination of FSU quarterback E.J. Manuel's injury and reaction to Clemson's win over Auburn and the Noles' loss to Oklahoma, the line has nearly made a complete pendulum swing to Clemson -2.5. Were Manuel not doubtful for this game, I'd be all over FSU to bounce back here, but it's too much to ask right now. I'll roll the dice for less than a field goal in hopes that Clemson handles this case of relative prosperity well.
WEST VIRGINIA (+6) over Louisiana State
I'd have loved for this spread to be in the 7.5 vicinity, especially since LSU will have had 9 days of rest coming into this primetime affair. But the Mountaineers' 3-0 start and the fact that this game has been flexed into the 8pm slot (with College Gameday making the trip, no less) has prevented the line from ballooning. LSU plays superb defense but doesn't dazzle offensively, which could keep the scoring relatively low at Milan Puskar Stadium - in which case, 6 points is pretty inviting. The Mountaineers have had this date circled on the calendar for a long time and it is very likely their biggest game of the regular season. Some will still insist that the Backyard Brawl vs. Pittsburgh is always the biggest, but WVU's Big East schedule looks like more of a formality than anything right now. I expect Dana Holgorsen's 16th-ranked team to come out flying on Saturday night, and maybe a wrinkle or trick at the right time can help pull this game out against the #3 Tigers. Kevin and I, along with blog friends and readers PJ and Tony, will be making the trip for this one, and I can speak for all of us when I say that I hope that no couches will be safe come 11:30pm in Morgantown.
Last Week: 4-1-0
Season: 8-6-1
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
Restored a little bit of order with a 3-2-1 showing last Saturday. Week 3 gives us a fairly appetizing slate of games for the first time this season. Home teams in CAPS.
Louisiana State (-3.5) OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE
I usually don't take Thursday games, but I plan to have an eye on this game and generally won't skip over a matchup of ranked opponents this early in the season. LSU passed its lone test against Oregon with flying colors while Mississippi State got outdueled last week by an Auburn team still trying to find its identity. The Tigers' defense, which is only giving up 45.5 ypg rushing, figures to be the difference maker here. There's no reason for the #25 Bulldogs to not put up a good fight, but LSU wins this game by 6-10 points.
West Virginia (+1) over MARYLAND
Had the Terps not made a statement in beating Miami on Labor Day evening, this game might have been problematic for #20 WVU, who trailed Norfolk State at halftime last week before putting up 45 unanswered second-half points. All in all, this is a game that Bill Stewart would have lost and Dana Holgorsen will find a way to win. Despite the effort put forth against the depleted Hurricanes two weeks ago, I don't know that Maryland will have enough on defense to contain the Mountaineers' quick-strike capabilities in the end.
Michigan State (+5) over NOTRE DAME
When I first saw this line I asked Kevin, "wait, is Michigan State bad this year and nobody happens to know it?" The Spartans are ranked 15th but have yet to face a real test, while the Irish, well....by now you know their deal. Can Notre Dame stop doing their Dallas Cowboys impression and quit making mistakes that cost them games (the similarities really are frightening in that way)? Will they stop leaving wheel routes unattended on the wide side of the field when protecting a 3-point lead in the final minute? Part of me doubts that they will go 0-3, but Notre Dame is really going to have to show the world something before anyone should be comfortable playing them as anything more than a field goal favorite.
MIAMI (-2.5) over Ohio State
Jacory Harris returns for the Hurricanes and will have the luxury of Ohio State being without one of its top pass-rushers, DE Nathan Williams. The Buckeyes may have been looking ahead to this week's matchup (if you believe in that sort of thing, which I really don't) in sleepwalking through a 27-22 victory over Toledo last week. Miami, on the other hand, has had an extra week to get their first team offense back in order and stew over their loss to Maryland. I think Harris can make enough plays to win this game late, which he may have to because the Ohio State defense is still pretty strong against the run. But if he does? Hookers for everyone! (Too soon?)
Oklahoma (-3) over FLORIDA STATE
One team thinks that it's ready for the big lights, but the other team knows that it is. Is Florida State all the way back? Only time will tell, but I think it's safe to say that going into Tallahassee on a Saturday night is still not as scary a proposition (football-wise, at least) as it was, say, 15 years ago. Neither team has gone up against a viable opponent yet this year, so for now the smarter money is on the experience of Landry Jones and Bob Stoops over E.J. Manuel and Jimbo Fisher. The Seminoles may be a year away from serious BCS contention, so Boomer Sooner by 7 or more this Saturday night.
Last Week: 3-2-1
Season: 4-5-1
Louisiana State (-3.5) OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE
I usually don't take Thursday games, but I plan to have an eye on this game and generally won't skip over a matchup of ranked opponents this early in the season. LSU passed its lone test against Oregon with flying colors while Mississippi State got outdueled last week by an Auburn team still trying to find its identity. The Tigers' defense, which is only giving up 45.5 ypg rushing, figures to be the difference maker here. There's no reason for the #25 Bulldogs to not put up a good fight, but LSU wins this game by 6-10 points.
West Virginia (+1) over MARYLAND
Had the Terps not made a statement in beating Miami on Labor Day evening, this game might have been problematic for #20 WVU, who trailed Norfolk State at halftime last week before putting up 45 unanswered second-half points. All in all, this is a game that Bill Stewart would have lost and Dana Holgorsen will find a way to win. Despite the effort put forth against the depleted Hurricanes two weeks ago, I don't know that Maryland will have enough on defense to contain the Mountaineers' quick-strike capabilities in the end.
Michigan State (+5) over NOTRE DAME
When I first saw this line I asked Kevin, "wait, is Michigan State bad this year and nobody happens to know it?" The Spartans are ranked 15th but have yet to face a real test, while the Irish, well....by now you know their deal. Can Notre Dame stop doing their Dallas Cowboys impression and quit making mistakes that cost them games (the similarities really are frightening in that way)? Will they stop leaving wheel routes unattended on the wide side of the field when protecting a 3-point lead in the final minute? Part of me doubts that they will go 0-3, but Notre Dame is really going to have to show the world something before anyone should be comfortable playing them as anything more than a field goal favorite.
MIAMI (-2.5) over Ohio State
Jacory Harris returns for the Hurricanes and will have the luxury of Ohio State being without one of its top pass-rushers, DE Nathan Williams. The Buckeyes may have been looking ahead to this week's matchup (if you believe in that sort of thing, which I really don't) in sleepwalking through a 27-22 victory over Toledo last week. Miami, on the other hand, has had an extra week to get their first team offense back in order and stew over their loss to Maryland. I think Harris can make enough plays to win this game late, which he may have to because the Ohio State defense is still pretty strong against the run. But if he does? Hookers for everyone! (Too soon?)
Oklahoma (-3) over FLORIDA STATE
One team thinks that it's ready for the big lights, but the other team knows that it is. Is Florida State all the way back? Only time will tell, but I think it's safe to say that going into Tallahassee on a Saturday night is still not as scary a proposition (football-wise, at least) as it was, say, 15 years ago. Neither team has gone up against a viable opponent yet this year, so for now the smarter money is on the experience of Landry Jones and Bob Stoops over E.J. Manuel and Jimbo Fisher. The Seminoles may be a year away from serious BCS contention, so Boomer Sooner by 7 or more this Saturday night.
Last Week: 3-2-1
Season: 4-5-1
Friday, September 9, 2011
Cinq (et un) Pour Samedi
In an odd turn of events, the Marshall/West Virginia game last week turned into a no-action bet for me after being called in the 4th quarter due to lightning. Had the score at the time (WVU 34, Marshall 13) held up, it would have been a cover for Marshall (+23) and a win for me, but we'll never know. I am going to take an extra game this week to compensate, which could very well be a recipe for disaster considering Week 2's lackluster schedule, featuring only one matchup between ranked opponents. Home teams in CAPS.
NORTH CAROLINA (-10) over Rutgers
This is the kind of game you look at when you have to take a sixth game. Rutgers, a bad team, getting less than two touchdowns on the road against North Carolina, an average team? These are exactly the types of games in which Rutgers tends to fold like a lawn chair - you know, the games against actual college football programs and not the likes of Florida International, Texas Southern, Norfolk State, and last week's opponent North Carolina Central. Not that the Tar Heels went up against world-beaters either in their Week 1 drubbing of James Madison (although JMU did beat Virginia Tech last year), but their combo of QB Bryn Renner and 6'-4", 225-lb. WR Dwight Jones should create enough mismatches against the Rutgers secondary to win by two scores.
Nevada (+26.5) over OREGON
It may be fashionable to pick against Oregon after their disappointing Week 1 effort against LSU, but this is more a bet for Nevada than anything else. The Wolf Pack, aka the team that knocked off Boise State last year, returns much of the same defense that could keep this from being too easy of a day for the Ducks. Also, this is Nevada's first game of the year, meaning that they have had their sights set on Eugene, Oregon for the entire offseason. I still don't think they can win outright, but if they keep Oregon under 40 points then the chances for a cover are decent.
South Carolina (-3) over GEORGIA
Georgia may have been given a bit too much credit a bit too soon, judging by the egg they laid against Boise State. This team is still relatively young and is sure to get better as the season goes on, but even if the Bulldogs had beaten Boise I still think I'd have like South Carolina here. The reason? Marcus Lattimore facing a Georgia defense that gave up 129 yards on the ground to Boise, who is not exactly considered a punishing running team. My only concern is South Carolina having to play a fully contested game for the first time all year, but they still look like they can win by a touchdown.
Alabama (-10) over PENN STATE
Does Penn State belong on the same field as Alabama? I still don't think so and it's going to take a good deal of convincing to get me to sway on that. Is Penn State, unsettled QB position and all, going to put up more than 14 points against Alabama? Are they going to put up more than 10? Too many scenarios are easily envisioned in which the Nittany Lions are held to single digits. On the other side of the ball, this could be Trent Richardson's first "Heisman résumé builder" game. I don't think it will be a shellacking, but the Tide rolls by double digits anyhow.
Brigham Young (+7) over TEXAS
Are the Longhorns ready to inch back to national prominence after last year's accidental rebuilding year? We'll find out over the next month as conference games ensue, but for now BYU presents an interesting challenge in Austin. In what is likely going to be a low-scoring game, 7 points is just fine with me. Also tipping the scales in favor of BYU for me was this quote from Mack Brown: "We're not significantly better than anybody we'll play that's left on the schedule," he said. "So, we need to stay healthy, we need to improve, and we need to do our best job coaching in my estimation, since our first year here." So yeah, give me BYU and the 7.
MICHIGAN (+3.5) over Notre Dame
As with any Michigan game, Kevin's analysis will dwarf mine in size and quality. But is Notre Dame, who was caught napping in their freaking home opener against South Florida, really a team you're willing to lay points with on the road? Would it help if I told you that Brian Kelly has hit the panic button and switched QB's again? All eyes should be on Ann Arbor in the Big House's first ever night game, and if the Wolverines can manage to play a bend-but-don't-break defensive game, there's no reason that this once won't at least come down to a field goal in either direction.
Last Week: 1-3-0
NORTH CAROLINA (-10) over Rutgers
This is the kind of game you look at when you have to take a sixth game. Rutgers, a bad team, getting less than two touchdowns on the road against North Carolina, an average team? These are exactly the types of games in which Rutgers tends to fold like a lawn chair - you know, the games against actual college football programs and not the likes of Florida International, Texas Southern, Norfolk State, and last week's opponent North Carolina Central. Not that the Tar Heels went up against world-beaters either in their Week 1 drubbing of James Madison (although JMU did beat Virginia Tech last year), but their combo of QB Bryn Renner and 6'-4", 225-lb. WR Dwight Jones should create enough mismatches against the Rutgers secondary to win by two scores.
Nevada (+26.5) over OREGON
It may be fashionable to pick against Oregon after their disappointing Week 1 effort against LSU, but this is more a bet for Nevada than anything else. The Wolf Pack, aka the team that knocked off Boise State last year, returns much of the same defense that could keep this from being too easy of a day for the Ducks. Also, this is Nevada's first game of the year, meaning that they have had their sights set on Eugene, Oregon for the entire offseason. I still don't think they can win outright, but if they keep Oregon under 40 points then the chances for a cover are decent.
South Carolina (-3) over GEORGIA
Georgia may have been given a bit too much credit a bit too soon, judging by the egg they laid against Boise State. This team is still relatively young and is sure to get better as the season goes on, but even if the Bulldogs had beaten Boise I still think I'd have like South Carolina here. The reason? Marcus Lattimore facing a Georgia defense that gave up 129 yards on the ground to Boise, who is not exactly considered a punishing running team. My only concern is South Carolina having to play a fully contested game for the first time all year, but they still look like they can win by a touchdown.
Alabama (-10) over PENN STATE
Does Penn State belong on the same field as Alabama? I still don't think so and it's going to take a good deal of convincing to get me to sway on that. Is Penn State, unsettled QB position and all, going to put up more than 14 points against Alabama? Are they going to put up more than 10? Too many scenarios are easily envisioned in which the Nittany Lions are held to single digits. On the other side of the ball, this could be Trent Richardson's first "Heisman résumé builder" game. I don't think it will be a shellacking, but the Tide rolls by double digits anyhow.
Brigham Young (+7) over TEXAS
Are the Longhorns ready to inch back to national prominence after last year's accidental rebuilding year? We'll find out over the next month as conference games ensue, but for now BYU presents an interesting challenge in Austin. In what is likely going to be a low-scoring game, 7 points is just fine with me. Also tipping the scales in favor of BYU for me was this quote from Mack Brown: "We're not significantly better than anybody we'll play that's left on the schedule," he said. "So, we need to stay healthy, we need to improve, and we need to do our best job coaching in my estimation, since our first year here." So yeah, give me BYU and the 7.
MICHIGAN (+3.5) over Notre Dame
As with any Michigan game, Kevin's analysis will dwarf mine in size and quality. But is Notre Dame, who was caught napping in their freaking home opener against South Florida, really a team you're willing to lay points with on the road? Would it help if I told you that Brian Kelly has hit the panic button and switched QB's again? All eyes should be on Ann Arbor in the Big House's first ever night game, and if the Wolverines can manage to play a bend-but-don't-break defensive game, there's no reason that this once won't at least come down to a field goal in either direction.
Last Week: 1-3-0
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Cinq Pour Samedi
It's back! Thanks to football season, you can expect at least three new columns per week produced between Kevin and I. As we did last year, Kevin and I will each pick 5 college football games against the spread every week from now until Bowl season, and I will put up a separate weekly piece in which I handicap 5 NFL games. What's on the line, you ask? Well, since last year's duel ended up in a pretty admirable stalemate (although I'd like to think I have the style-points edge for my Bowl picks column, but you be the judge), we really have no clue what's on the line because nobody won or lost - and thus nobody had to pay up. The stakes range from mere bragging rights to maybe a 12-pack of Guinness, but nothing's written in stone. Either way, it's just nice to be talking about football again (wait, I hardly mentioned football at all in that paragraph). Home teams in CAPS (and not because that's the way Bill Simmons does it, but because it just makes things easier).
NOTRE DAME (-10) over South Florida
I'm drinking the Irish Kool-Aid for now, largely thanks to the team's great 2010 finish and 16 returning starters. South Florida will be anything but wide-eyed going into South Bend, with former Irish player and coach Skip Holtz (son of Lou Holtz) leading them. The Bulls have proven themselves over the past 5 years to be no walkover and a perennial Big East dark horse (whether that's a real compliment or not, you can decide), but despite all the speed they have, they were 101st in the nation last year in passing. If Notre Dame gets out to a lead of 13 or more at any point, you may be able to shut the book on South Florida. Brian Kelly has too much to lose to drop this one at home, even with next week's much-anticipated date with Michigan in Ann Arbor looming ahead.
Oregon (-1) over LSU (neutral site)
Quite a few variables in this game. How will each team be represented in terms of fans at the annual Jerry Bowl, held at neutral-site Cowboys Stadium? Will LSU, in the wake of last week's bar fight, be playing with a full roster, most notably quarterback Jordan Jefferson? Will Oregon's fast-paced offense, which blistered its opponents through the regular season in 2010 but was held to 19 points in the BCS Championship Game, return to form? And what garish uniform combo will the Ducks be sporting? One of the only constants in this game figures to be Oregon RB LaMichael James, a Heisman finalist last year and an early favorite for this year's award. If he and Darron Thomas can get Oregon going offensively, I don't know that LSU will have the weapons (or at least, the experienced weapons) to keep up.
Marshall (+23) over WEST VIRGINIA
Our readers know that whatever college football loyalties do I have lie with West Virginia, but I expect the Mountaineers to struggle a little bit in this one. For Marshall, this is their Super Bowl, (if you're the type who likes to bet halves, I'd throw solid money down on Marshall in the first half) and in the past two years the Herd has given WVU all they could handle until the end. If Bill Stewart were still coaching the team, it would be easy to say that WVU will be ill-prepared for this in-state rivalry, as the Mountaineers under Stewart tended to look past lesser teams fairly often. However, I do think new head coach Dana Holgorsen is going to be out to prove that he's no Bill Stewart. The problem is that Holgorsen's spread out pass-heavy offensive system has a lot of moving parts and cannot be expected to go smoothly in its first go-round, despite Geno Smith's potential as a passer. Consider also the fact that the Mountaineers are unsettled at tailback for the first time in 6 years, so it wouldn't shock you if WVU has trouble sustaining drives. The public has bet this line up from an 18.5-point opening, and I think 23 points is just too many to lay here.
Georgia (+3) over Boise State (neutral site)
It's a de facto home game for the Bulldogs as they face Boise State in Atlanta. Can Georgia's young defense keep Kellen Moore from lighting up the Georgia Dome? If it gets to that point, Georgia may still have a puncher's chance in a shootout, as the silver lining to last year's 6-7 season was the development of now-Sophomore QB Aaron Murray (3,049 yds/24 TD/8 INT). Neither team has an experienced receiving corps, so such a shootout is no guarantee. A crowd-influenced big defensive play might have to be what wins it for Georgia, who cannot afford to waste time out of the gate. A rebound season is expected for the 22nd-ranked Bulldogs, and we will know immediately what they are made of - a matchup with South Carolina awaits after this one.
MARYLAND (+5.5) over Miami
The lines are all over the place for Monday night's game between the Terps and whatever half of the Hurricanes are eligible to play. Miami QB Jacory Harris is the most notable of the eight 'Canes serving a suspension in light of the booster gift scandal uncovered a few weeks ago. Does Maryland have enough, in the first game of the Randy Edsall era, to take advantage of Miami's depleted ranks? The Terps are going to have to grind it out on the ground to keep their relatively inexperienced defense off the field (even without Harris, Miami still figures to be able to run circles around Maryland on offense), so if senior RB Davin Meggett (yes, David's son), who averaged 5.7 YPC in 2010, is up to the task as the starter, this could be a pretty interesting game in front of what should be a pumped up home crowd.
Last Season: 40-30-5
NOTRE DAME (-10) over South Florida
I'm drinking the Irish Kool-Aid for now, largely thanks to the team's great 2010 finish and 16 returning starters. South Florida will be anything but wide-eyed going into South Bend, with former Irish player and coach Skip Holtz (son of Lou Holtz) leading them. The Bulls have proven themselves over the past 5 years to be no walkover and a perennial Big East dark horse (whether that's a real compliment or not, you can decide), but despite all the speed they have, they were 101st in the nation last year in passing. If Notre Dame gets out to a lead of 13 or more at any point, you may be able to shut the book on South Florida. Brian Kelly has too much to lose to drop this one at home, even with next week's much-anticipated date with Michigan in Ann Arbor looming ahead.
Oregon (-1) over LSU (neutral site)
Quite a few variables in this game. How will each team be represented in terms of fans at the annual Jerry Bowl, held at neutral-site Cowboys Stadium? Will LSU, in the wake of last week's bar fight, be playing with a full roster, most notably quarterback Jordan Jefferson? Will Oregon's fast-paced offense, which blistered its opponents through the regular season in 2010 but was held to 19 points in the BCS Championship Game, return to form? And what garish uniform combo will the Ducks be sporting? One of the only constants in this game figures to be Oregon RB LaMichael James, a Heisman finalist last year and an early favorite for this year's award. If he and Darron Thomas can get Oregon going offensively, I don't know that LSU will have the weapons (or at least, the experienced weapons) to keep up.
Marshall (+23) over WEST VIRGINIA
Our readers know that whatever college football loyalties do I have lie with West Virginia, but I expect the Mountaineers to struggle a little bit in this one. For Marshall, this is their Super Bowl, (if you're the type who likes to bet halves, I'd throw solid money down on Marshall in the first half) and in the past two years the Herd has given WVU all they could handle until the end. If Bill Stewart were still coaching the team, it would be easy to say that WVU will be ill-prepared for this in-state rivalry, as the Mountaineers under Stewart tended to look past lesser teams fairly often. However, I do think new head coach Dana Holgorsen is going to be out to prove that he's no Bill Stewart. The problem is that Holgorsen's spread out pass-heavy offensive system has a lot of moving parts and cannot be expected to go smoothly in its first go-round, despite Geno Smith's potential as a passer. Consider also the fact that the Mountaineers are unsettled at tailback for the first time in 6 years, so it wouldn't shock you if WVU has trouble sustaining drives. The public has bet this line up from an 18.5-point opening, and I think 23 points is just too many to lay here.
Georgia (+3) over Boise State (neutral site)
It's a de facto home game for the Bulldogs as they face Boise State in Atlanta. Can Georgia's young defense keep Kellen Moore from lighting up the Georgia Dome? If it gets to that point, Georgia may still have a puncher's chance in a shootout, as the silver lining to last year's 6-7 season was the development of now-Sophomore QB Aaron Murray (3,049 yds/24 TD/8 INT). Neither team has an experienced receiving corps, so such a shootout is no guarantee. A crowd-influenced big defensive play might have to be what wins it for Georgia, who cannot afford to waste time out of the gate. A rebound season is expected for the 22nd-ranked Bulldogs, and we will know immediately what they are made of - a matchup with South Carolina awaits after this one.
MARYLAND (+5.5) over Miami
The lines are all over the place for Monday night's game between the Terps and whatever half of the Hurricanes are eligible to play. Miami QB Jacory Harris is the most notable of the eight 'Canes serving a suspension in light of the booster gift scandal uncovered a few weeks ago. Does Maryland have enough, in the first game of the Randy Edsall era, to take advantage of Miami's depleted ranks? The Terps are going to have to grind it out on the ground to keep their relatively inexperienced defense off the field (even without Harris, Miami still figures to be able to run circles around Maryland on offense), so if senior RB Davin Meggett (yes, David's son), who averaged 5.7 YPC in 2010, is up to the task as the starter, this could be a pretty interesting game in front of what should be a pumped up home crowd.
Last Season: 40-30-5
Monday, May 2, 2011
Source: Jim Tressel Knew Osama's Location
Senator Jim Tressel knew where Osama Bin Laden was hiding but failed to report the information to the CIA. Tressel denied having previous knowledge of the whereabouts of Bin Laden.
"I have never met nor contacted Osama Bin Laden. I had no previous knowledge of where he was hiding."
Previously Jim Tressel was caught lying to the NCAA about emailing and phoning the wrong people. He had since upgraded to a courier service and was communitcating with Bin Laden. At this time, the details of Tressel's relationship with Bin Laden are unknown.
An employee of the CIA spoke on the condition of anonimity. "Coach Tressel has painted himself as a patriot but we now know this is not the case. We have survalliance footage of Tressel with Osama Bin Laden's courier. We have also uncovered a letter's at Osama's secret location from Jim Tressel. It was a thank you note for all the money supplied to the program. Tressel also incuded a photo of himself. The photo showed a map tattoed to his back of Osama's location."
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Least Satisfying Champions Since 2000
Ok so being the least satisfying champion is dating the worst looking cheerleader. She may not make the cover of the calendar but she still looks great. In an expansion on my "Building a Perfect League Structure Post" I wanted to look at some of the least satisfying champions in major US Sports over the last 11 years.
2001 New England Patriots
Look at how they advanced in the playoffs. They beat the Oakland Raiders in a blizzard and on a referee's call. Oakland was by far the better team and just happened to be beaten by the elements and a rule that needed to be changed. Charles Woodson's sack on Brady was a fumble to anyone who was watching the game, but replay overturned the call. If the rule is as it should be, the Raiders advance and the Pats go home.
New England went on to upset the St.Louis Rams in the Super Bowl and claim the crown.
2006 Cardinals-
The second-worst champion of all time: the 2006 Cardinals, whose regular-season record of 83-78 gives them the lowest winning percentage ever for a World Series winner. They nearly blow a monster lead to the Astros down the stretch but got hot in the post season and won the World Series.
2007 LSU Tigers
They may have actually been the best team all year long. So why should they be on this list? They lost two games, and unprecedentedly ended up with a chance to play for the National Title anyways. Now to be fair both losses were in OT to Kentucky and Arkansas, both its disappointing to have a champion with so many blemishes on their resume.
2007-2008 New York Giants
The Giants are a wild card team that manages to win every road game in the playoffs including a bitterly cold game that would be Farve's last in Green Bay. They earn a rematch in the Super Bowl with a team that they lost to in week 17 at home, the undefeated New England Patriots. Sure it was great upset and full credit to the Giants, but it just feels wrong not crowning the Patriots champs when they are undefeated prior to the Super Bowl.
2010 San Francisco Giants
This team was made up of vagabonds to a degree and could barely hit. This may sound like sour grapes, but they beat Phils team that largely beat itself and were certainly not playing good baseball. They then beat the Rangers in the World Series which lacked pitching outside of Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson. They got hot for the postseason but were slightly above average all season long.
2011 UConn
Yes they won the Maui Invitational and the Big East Tournament, that was really impressive. However, they finished 9-9 in conference play and 9th in the Big East. The strongest team they beat in the NCAA tournament was probably Arizona. The NCAA tournament usually gives you a satisfying champion, but this year doesn't feel like it.
I'm sure I missed some but feel free to add to the list. I did not evaluate hockey because I don't know enough about it to do so.
2001 New England Patriots
Look at how they advanced in the playoffs. They beat the Oakland Raiders in a blizzard and on a referee's call. Oakland was by far the better team and just happened to be beaten by the elements and a rule that needed to be changed. Charles Woodson's sack on Brady was a fumble to anyone who was watching the game, but replay overturned the call. If the rule is as it should be, the Raiders advance and the Pats go home.
New England went on to upset the St.Louis Rams in the Super Bowl and claim the crown.
2006 Cardinals-
The second-worst champion of all time: the 2006 Cardinals, whose regular-season record of 83-78 gives them the lowest winning percentage ever for a World Series winner. They nearly blow a monster lead to the Astros down the stretch but got hot in the post season and won the World Series.
2007 LSU Tigers
They may have actually been the best team all year long. So why should they be on this list? They lost two games, and unprecedentedly ended up with a chance to play for the National Title anyways. Now to be fair both losses were in OT to Kentucky and Arkansas, both its disappointing to have a champion with so many blemishes on their resume.
2007-2008 New York Giants
The Giants are a wild card team that manages to win every road game in the playoffs including a bitterly cold game that would be Farve's last in Green Bay. They earn a rematch in the Super Bowl with a team that they lost to in week 17 at home, the undefeated New England Patriots. Sure it was great upset and full credit to the Giants, but it just feels wrong not crowning the Patriots champs when they are undefeated prior to the Super Bowl.
2010 San Francisco Giants
This team was made up of vagabonds to a degree and could barely hit. This may sound like sour grapes, but they beat Phils team that largely beat itself and were certainly not playing good baseball. They then beat the Rangers in the World Series which lacked pitching outside of Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson. They got hot for the postseason but were slightly above average all season long.
2011 UConn
Yes they won the Maui Invitational and the Big East Tournament, that was really impressive. However, they finished 9-9 in conference play and 9th in the Big East. The strongest team they beat in the NCAA tournament was probably Arizona. The NCAA tournament usually gives you a satisfying champion, but this year doesn't feel like it.
I'm sure I missed some but feel free to add to the list. I did not evaluate hockey because I don't know enough about it to do so.
The Hard Cam Is Your Only Friend
CBS isn't alone, Fox, ABC, NBC, and ESPN are guilty too. CBS, however is the most agregious offender after the tournament. They love using multiple camera angles during live game action. This will always be unacceptable. It makes it difficult to see what is going on and disorients the viewer. We have gotten used to the one hard camera view in basketball, football, and hockey. Do not change it up just because you have the camera you want to use. Those extra cameras are for replays, how complicated is this? It's almost as if they are bored with their production, and need to rotate camera angles to stay busy. Live action camera switches are reserved for adult movies (so long as its not the view of the guy's ass).
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Oh Hi, March
Take a look at the blog archives on the lower right side of the page and you'll notice a pretty dramatic decline in the frequency of posting between this point last year and now. A year ago we were producing more than an item a day, many of them of considerable length and even more considerable depth. As Kevin pointed out last month, much has changed in the past 6-8 months for the blog's three operators. We've all moved and now live at least an hour apart from each other (as opposed to the 20-minute diameter that had enclosed us a year ago), we've all taken on new jobs or new, unprecedented levels of responsibility at our current jobs, and we're also in the midst of seeing some of the most important people in our lives start to get engaged and married (not actually any one of us yet, though, rest assured). As an unfortunate result, the blog has taken a bit of a backseat. But I guess you can just call that another element of getting older.
On the other hand, I am enjoying some of the things that seem to never change from year to year. As someone whose Winter Dldrums got an early start when Tony Romo broke his collarbone two months before Christmas, there are few nicer phrases right now than "February is over." The Big East Tournament is underway, and for the first time since October, I am feeling interest in a sporting event for reasons other than gambling or spite. Selection Sunday is 4 days away. The Tournament is 8 days away (depending if you count the round of 68 or not), and soon enough will be providing us the 2011 versions of overnight household names Bryce Drew and Ali Farokhmanesh, or maybe another unfathomable run like George Mason in '06, Davidson in '08, or Butler just last year. And once we've seemingly had our fill of the NCAA on CBS theme music, camps will break in Arizona and Florida, and our baseball teams will head north to play games that count once again. Shortly thereafter, the Feel Good Event of the Year will be upon us to erase any doubt that the shitty winter of 2010-2011 is gone.
The only thing that will keep you sane in life is having things to look forward to on a regular basis. It doesn't have to be huge, it just has to be on the horizon. Kevin's piece below about life after college ties right in to this thinking. Simply put, it sucks sometimes. It really does. And we all know that. But we also have to be able to find those openings, those breaks in the monotony that remind us, "hey, it's not all so terrible." For me and probably for John and Kevin as well, one of those ripples of light comes every mid-March. Followers of the blog who have an embarrassing amount of time on their hands may remember that I put that very same Andy Dufresne picture you see above on a post from last year that said some very similar things. But hey, any day that the Shawshank picture goes up on the blog can't be too bad of a day.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
5 Tickets to Paradise
I did not take quite the same approach as Lou, I concentrated on games only in my lifetime. Thjs wasn't really intentional but rather just happened. I also avoided Michigan and anything relating to a United States Men's team. Most of you can probably come up with your own five that are better than mine and I encourage you to do so in the comments. No matter how much mine lack in Championship quality, you cannot deny you would have had a great time at all these events. I tried to imagine being at the event that day and celebration in the aftermath. On campus events are worth more than games played at neutral sites.
In no particular order.
September 4, 1993 Jim Abbott's No Hitter.
When I think of a no hitter, the first picture that always comes into my mind is the one above. I suppose you might say this is cop out because Abbott went to Michigan, but that has got nothing to do with it. First of all like Lou mentioned earlier, I too love low scoring baseball games that are dominated by pitching. The prospect of seeing a no hitter at a baseball game is on my mind everytime someone completes three innings of no hit ball. When you go to baseball games as a kid you dream of catching a foul ball, seeing your favorite player do something spectacular, and witnessing something historic. A no hitter or perfect game is the coolest thing I can think of bearing witness to. The drama in the final innings would be electric, especially at Yankees Stadium.
The Yankees are in the middle of a pennant race that I think just about everyone who reads this blogs wishes they would have won for one reason or another. Abbott had been shelled by the Cleveland Indians in his previous start and had to go right back and face them on this day. He would walk five batters and strike out only three while getting 17 ground ball outs. Abbott never really had the Major League career he seemed capable of given his dominance at the amateur level and the fact that he skipped the minors, but on this day he had his moment.
Everyone knows that Abbott was born with one hand and the overcoming of his limitations are part of the reason he serves as a motivation speaker today. My dad used to tell me when Jim Abbott was pitching on TV because I was curious how a guy with one hand could be a major league baseball player. I would hope for a ball to get hit to him to watch him move the glove from his nub (PC be damned) to his hand. It was fascinating and he was an easy guy to root for.
February 2, 1995 UNC 102 Duke 100 2 OT
Game Story from Wiki
With Coach K on leave of absence for the year, the Blue Devils suffered through their worst season in well over a decade. They seemed out-manned on their home court from the opening tip, falling behind 26-9 in the first half, highlighted by alley-oops by Carolina's Rasheed Wallace and a reverse jam by Jerry Stackhouse over two Blue Devils. However, Duke rallied in the second half and led by as much as 12, before North Carolina staged a rally of its own. The two squads exchanged leads four times at the end of regulation before heading into overtime. With three seconds left in the first overtime, Carolina led 95-92 and sent Serge Zwikker to the foul line with the chance to ice the game for the heavily favored Tar Heels. However Zwikker missed both free throws, setting up Duke's Jeff Capel for a running, 37-foot heave that tied the game as the buzzer sounded, sending Cameron into a state of euphoria. With the game still tied late in the second overtime, Donald Williams scored for the Heels and Jeff McInnis stole the inbounds pass for an easy layup, putting North Carolina up 102-98. Duke answered with a basket of their own and after stopping the Tar Heels, had a chance to force a third overtime or win the game outright. Nevertheless, Wojo's jumper missed and Greg Newton's putback drew nothing but air, preserving North Carolina's 102-100 victory.
I have always wanted to go to one of these games and this is the best one I have seen in my lifetime. The game wasn't overblown with hype at this point. It was even on ESPN 2 and Dickie V and whoever was doing the game with him were forced to do the game from the rafters.
Virginia 33 Florida St. 28 November 2,1995
How do you pick a Bo Jackson moment? Which one stands out? You hear so many stories about him that you think they can’t possibly be true. Monday night football against the Seahawks where he destroys Bosworth and his hype en route for running for 220 yards. A game against the Orioles in 1989 where he called timeout in the the batters box, didn’t get it and hit a home run anyways. How about hitting 3 home runs in Yankees stadium and then injury his shoulder diving after a ball that would turn into a inside the park home run for Deion Sanders and never getting the chance to hit a 4th. There are simply so many Bo Jackson moments that would make up a highlight reel in his career. One of the biggest regrets I have as a sports fan is never seeing him play. Granted I was young, but I became fan of the Raiders because of him. I cheered for the White Sox growing up as well. It would always have been difficult to see him play because I was 7 when he retired, but I should have pushed harder to make it happen. I remember being really jealous of my uncle who saw him crack a HR at Camden Yards.
In no particular order.
September 4, 1993 Jim Abbott's No Hitter.
When I think of a no hitter, the first picture that always comes into my mind is the one above. I suppose you might say this is cop out because Abbott went to Michigan, but that has got nothing to do with it. First of all like Lou mentioned earlier, I too love low scoring baseball games that are dominated by pitching. The prospect of seeing a no hitter at a baseball game is on my mind everytime someone completes three innings of no hit ball. When you go to baseball games as a kid you dream of catching a foul ball, seeing your favorite player do something spectacular, and witnessing something historic. A no hitter or perfect game is the coolest thing I can think of bearing witness to. The drama in the final innings would be electric, especially at Yankees Stadium.
The Yankees are in the middle of a pennant race that I think just about everyone who reads this blogs wishes they would have won for one reason or another. Abbott had been shelled by the Cleveland Indians in his previous start and had to go right back and face them on this day. He would walk five batters and strike out only three while getting 17 ground ball outs. Abbott never really had the Major League career he seemed capable of given his dominance at the amateur level and the fact that he skipped the minors, but on this day he had his moment.
Everyone knows that Abbott was born with one hand and the overcoming of his limitations are part of the reason he serves as a motivation speaker today. My dad used to tell me when Jim Abbott was pitching on TV because I was curious how a guy with one hand could be a major league baseball player. I would hope for a ball to get hit to him to watch him move the glove from his nub (PC be damned) to his hand. It was fascinating and he was an easy guy to root for.
February 2, 1995 UNC 102 Duke 100 2 OT
Game Story from Wiki
With Coach K on leave of absence for the year, the Blue Devils suffered through their worst season in well over a decade. They seemed out-manned on their home court from the opening tip, falling behind 26-9 in the first half, highlighted by alley-oops by Carolina's Rasheed Wallace and a reverse jam by Jerry Stackhouse over two Blue Devils. However, Duke rallied in the second half and led by as much as 12, before North Carolina staged a rally of its own. The two squads exchanged leads four times at the end of regulation before heading into overtime. With three seconds left in the first overtime, Carolina led 95-92 and sent Serge Zwikker to the foul line with the chance to ice the game for the heavily favored Tar Heels. However Zwikker missed both free throws, setting up Duke's Jeff Capel for a running, 37-foot heave that tied the game as the buzzer sounded, sending Cameron into a state of euphoria. With the game still tied late in the second overtime, Donald Williams scored for the Heels and Jeff McInnis stole the inbounds pass for an easy layup, putting North Carolina up 102-98. Duke answered with a basket of their own and after stopping the Tar Heels, had a chance to force a third overtime or win the game outright. Nevertheless, Wojo's jumper missed and Greg Newton's putback drew nothing but air, preserving North Carolina's 102-100 victory.
I have always wanted to go to one of these games and this is the best one I have seen in my lifetime. The game wasn't overblown with hype at this point. It was even on ESPN 2 and Dickie V and whoever was doing the game with him were forced to do the game from the rafters.
Virginia 33 Florida St. 28 November 2,1995
On the first memorable Thursday night college football game in ESPN history, Virginia snap Florida State's 29-game Atlantic Coast Conference winning streak and probably ended the Seminoles' bid for a national championship.
Tiki Barber had 311 all-purpose yards and scored two touchdowns, and the Cavaliers stopped second-ranked Florida State a foot from the goal line on the final play for a 33-28 victory. The game was well played on both sides of the ball and had an exciting finish that the refs got right before the era of replay. Warrick Dunn took a direct snap from about the six yard line and came within inches of breaking the plane with the football. His helmet had crossed the line but not the ball. It was Florida State's first ACC loss since joining the league in 1992. The Seminoles had won their first 29 ACC games and were in full dynasty mode. They wouldn't lose in the league again until 1998.
See Bo Jackson Play
Tiki Barber had 311 all-purpose yards and scored two touchdowns, and the Cavaliers stopped second-ranked Florida State a foot from the goal line on the final play for a 33-28 victory. The game was well played on both sides of the ball and had an exciting finish that the refs got right before the era of replay. Warrick Dunn took a direct snap from about the six yard line and came within inches of breaking the plane with the football. His helmet had crossed the line but not the ball. It was Florida State's first ACC loss since joining the league in 1992. The Seminoles had won their first 29 ACC games and were in full dynasty mode. They wouldn't lose in the league again until 1998.
See Bo Jackson Play
How do you pick a Bo Jackson moment? Which one stands out? You hear so many stories about him that you think they can’t possibly be true. Monday night football against the Seahawks where he destroys Bosworth and his hype en route for running for 220 yards. A game against the Orioles in 1989 where he called timeout in the the batters box, didn’t get it and hit a home run anyways. How about hitting 3 home runs in Yankees stadium and then injury his shoulder diving after a ball that would turn into a inside the park home run for Deion Sanders and never getting the chance to hit a 4th. There are simply so many Bo Jackson moments that would make up a highlight reel in his career. One of the biggest regrets I have as a sports fan is never seeing him play. Granted I was young, but I became fan of the Raiders because of him. I cheered for the White Sox growing up as well. It would always have been difficult to see him play because I was 7 when he retired, but I should have pushed harder to make it happen. I remember being really jealous of my uncle who saw him crack a HR at Camden Yards.
If I could go back to one Bo Jackson moment it would be April 9, 1993. Bo hasn’t been the same since destroying his hip in playoff game against the Bengals on January 13, 1991. Despite playing in limited action in 1991 baseball season, Bo sat out all of 1992. He steps up to the plate at Comiskey Park
La Salle 90- St.Joesph’s 89.
The Day the Hawk Died
La Salle vs. St. Joseph
A classic example of why school doesn’t always come first. It was my junior year at La Salle and we had yet to beat St.Joes. St.Joes had had tons of success and would go onto the tournament this season as well. La Salle seemed on the cusp of breaking through and needed a big time win to excite the fanbase and validate the hype Coach Giannini had created for his program.
For people who didn’t go to a Big 5 school its hard to explain the rivalries but surely you can recognize how 5 schools in close proximity with varying degrees of academic reputation could lead to heated battles. For me, playing St.Joes was always personal. My high school was a feeder into St.Joes. My girlfriend went there. I chose to be different and head to the La Salle . Students who went to La Salle were looked down upon by St. Joes students. Our school was in a bad area, our school was second rate. Needless to say we developed an inferiority complex to a degree. We didn’t think our school was better or worse than St.Joes but that was/is the perception in my circle.
Most of my friends were going to the game, except for a few poor finance students who had a then important exam the next day. We made the disciplined decision to gather and study in the dorm rooms. Inevitable we flicked the game on at 7PM while we at takeout. La Salle was double digit underdogs although I can’t recall the exact line. We were already a semi jaded group of fans after having watched 2 ½ years of La Salle basketball to know that rarely do they upset anyone. La Salle had not beat St.Joes since 2001. This day was to be different though and there was little studying that would be done. La Salle was going toe to toe with the current Philadelphia
Well you already know that it was or I would not be writing this. It was the back and forth flow of the game, the red hot shooting from La Salle, and the furious finish that made this game so memorable.
It was without a doubt the biggest impact a La Salle team had on campus in my 4 years at the school. We were not going to accomplish much studying this night. We watched the team return on the bus and went to a house off campus to talk to people who went to the game. I cannot even tell you what was on the test the next day and I know it did not go very well but it doesn’t matter now and it should not have mattered then. I should have been there and it grates me still 3 years later.
Honorable Mention
1. Liverpool is on their way out of the Champions League before the knockout stage, they need 3 goals against Olympiacos to go through on goal differential and Steven Gerrard delivers a the third in dramatic fashion......which drives Liverpool on a run to the Champions League Finale. 2. Liverpool trails 3-0 at half to AC Milan and score 3 in the second half and eventually lift the cup for the fifth time on penalty kicks.
3. Bills-Oilers 1992 Wildcard Playoff game- This was headed for the list until I found out the game wasn't even sold out. The game was blacked out locally of course. It was an unreal comeback done with injuries to two star players but the no sellout thing bothered me.
4. Princeton goes backdoor to beat defending National Champs UCLA. 1996 NCAA Tournament
5. Crabtree and Texas Tech beat Texas
6. Stanford shocks the Trojans (Oct. 6, 2007)
Honorable Mention
1. Liverpool is on their way out of the Champions League before the knockout stage, they need 3 goals against Olympiacos to go through on goal differential and Steven Gerrard delivers a the third in dramatic fashion......which drives Liverpool on a run to the Champions League Finale. 2. Liverpool trails 3-0 at half to AC Milan and score 3 in the second half and eventually lift the cup for the fifth time on penalty kicks.
3. Bills-Oilers 1992 Wildcard Playoff game- This was headed for the list until I found out the game wasn't even sold out. The game was blacked out locally of course. It was an unreal comeback done with injuries to two star players but the no sellout thing bothered me.
4. Princeton goes backdoor to beat defending National Champs UCLA. 1996 NCAA Tournament
5. Crabtree and Texas Tech beat Texas
6. Stanford shocks the Trojans (Oct. 6, 2007)
The 41-point underdog Stanford enters its game against No. 2 USC in the Los Angeles Coliseum with most pundits giving the Cardinal the proverbial snowball's chance in hell of even staying in the game, much less winning. But coach Jim Harbaugh's squad converts a fourth-down touchdown pass with 49 seconds remaining to seal the impossible victory - and end USC's 35-game home winning streak. In Vegas the moneyline is off the board. Stanford is playing there back up QB. The defensive line for Stanford is tearing into the backfield on almost every play. It was great watching this on TV, but it would have been amazing to be there, if only to avoid maybe worst broadcast production this side of Pam Ward.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Building the Perfect League Structure
"The real season doesn't start until the playoffs" This has been said by countless players, fans, and media type about most sports. Yes the playoffs matter the most, but this statement condemn the leagues themselves. The regular season should matter, but unfortunately this is not the case in some professional leagues. Here are the current playoff systems in the major sports leagues and my suggestions to improve them.
NBA
Now: 82 game season, 30 Teams, 2 Conferences of 15, Top 8 in each conference make the post season.
It's hard to argue that the regular season matters all that much for probably 8 teams a year that could walk their way into the postseason. Sure there are team that's are fighting at the end of the season to be a 7 or 8 seed, but how often does a 7 or 8 seed make it past the second round. Cinderella does not exist in the NBA. So many teams make the post season, so the interest doesn't really wane as much in some cities. Or at least that's the NBA theory and it's short sighted. Fans want to watch games that matter and few ultimately do in the NBA. So you may have already tuned the league out all together. Gate receipts are important, but TV is where money is for the league. Why would someone tune in to watch the Heat and Nets play 4 times a year? Yes, the NBA has a bad reputation because of a perceived lack of effort and lack of defense but if the games matter more I would think the play would pick up. You could also reward teams for finishing 9 vs. 10 in the league with monetary bonuses.
It will never happen proposal : Do away with conferences, play 58 games (each team home and away once)
8 Teams make the postseason. Every series is a best of 3. 1vs8 and so on. Same home court advantage rules apply.
NHL
Now: Same as NBA across the board, except silly shootouts to break ties. 84 Games instead of 82 though.
Hockey is probably most random for determining outcomes. I would guess that in hockey more than any other sport, the team that deserves to win does not. How often do you see a team doubled in shots and scoring chances and lose? Usually its because of a deflection or something fluky too. This makes it hard to determine a proper champion and the Stanley Cup playoffs rarely go according to script.
It will never happen: I know I know the Stanley Cup playoffs are perfect, but they render the regular season virtually useless. I'm in favor of keeping series at 7 games and cutting the playoff teams to 12 incorporating byes for top teams, or simply dropping to 8 teams.
NFL
32 Teams with 12 making the playoffs, 16 game regular season for now
The NFL playoff system is one of the better ones but no playoff system is perfect year in and year out. Sometimes the most deserving team is not going to win, but that is what makes sports interesting I suppose. Is it really fair that the Giants beat a previously undefeated Patriots team to win the Super Bowl despite having lost to them at home in the regular season? To me it feels wrong no matter how yummy Belichick's tears taste. The Giants still did the impossible and you have to give them a ton of credit.
The bye structure for the playoffs work well. The best teams are appropriately rewarded with a an easier path to the Super Bowl and a home playoff game against the a opponent based on seeding. The only issue I have with the NFL playoffs are guaranteeing a playoff spot to a 4-team division. Divisions should probably be larger but its hard to do that evenly with 32 teams. So instead I would like to see the there not be an automatic births and home playoff game for divisional winners. It would seem cold not to allow a divisional winner into the playoffs but the Seahawks getting in at 7-9 can't happen. You also have to question the point of divisions when the Raiders can run the table (6-0) in the division and not make the playoffs. Perhaps I can concede that the divisions remain in tact to protect some rivalries but perhaps you are not guaranteed the post season for winning your division. Finish with a winning record or watch someone else take your place.
MLB
162 games, 30 teams, 8 make the playoffs
Some people on this blog would say the baseball playoff are perfect. It is true that it works well but I terrified of the prospect of the playoffs getting expanded. This would further harm the integrity of the regular season. I am not even a fan of the Wild Card but I can deal with it. The marathon season in baseball is a thing of beauty and I'd hate to see it harmed by more teams polluting the post season. I want it to be a big deal when the Yankees and Red Sox are fighting for the post season. Expanded playoffs would farther guarantee their appearance. It could also mean that a red hot team could pick off the team with the best record in baseball in round 1. The league season is long enough to decide who the best teams are so I prefer them to be exclusive. Baseball feels different in the postseason because your weaknesses are exposed (usually pitching). Thoughts on if this is a good thing?
College Basketball
345 Teams, 68 make Tournament
The ever expanding NCAA Tournament will continue to be fun but for the elite teams the regular season becomes more and more meaningless. Some of the elite teams can get bounced from the tournament making them feel like they have accomplished little on the season. This is often harsh, but it makes the tournament exciting to the casual viewers of the sport. While the NCAA tournament is insane and the best team may not always win, the champion is always deserving for having marched through 6 straight games victorious.
NCAA Football
12 Games + Conference Title Game, BCS Title Game
This is a playoff system that people can't stand. To hell with you casual fan. The BCS is far from perfect. The old bowl alliance may be better still, but the bottom line is every week in the season matters right now. When actually determining a National Champion, how often does the best team win it? Most of the time? Say 2 out of 3? Can we at least agree that this is on par with other sports if not better. Does anyone think the Giants were the best team this past season? But yet they won the World Series. How bout the 2006 Cardinals? The majority does not argue who wins professional sports titles because there is a playoff, so the winner of said playoff must be the best. Bullocks. Muckrakers like Dan Wetzel can bitch all they want and drum up controversy for book sales and to further their careers but a 16 team playoff with all league champions is dumber than any playoff, in any league.
The BCS can be improved upon though. If I said otherwise I would be as big a dolt as the people that argue for a 16 team playoff. I argue against a playoff in college football because I know that when it does come, it will bastardize the regular season and be as poorly constructed as everything other playoff system in America. However, here is my official endorsement for you college football playoff to be constructed and never changed.
6 teams make the post season. #1 and #2 receive a bye. #3 hosts #6 and #4 hosts #5. The championship game is at the Rose Bowl and it never rotates to an indoor NFL stadium. Neutral bowl sight games deep in the south get shot straight to hell. Ohio Stadium hosts a game in December and the Florida Gators will freeze because the Buckeyes earned that home game in the regular season.
This year's system
#6 Ohio State @ #3 TCU
#5 Stanford @ #4 Wisconsin
#1 Auburn and #2 Oregon receive byes. (This idea is not my own, it was created by MGoblog.com)
In this system marquee games have meaning, unlike the annual Orange Bowl match up. The BCS essentially dies but the bowl system remains in place and bowl match ups are just as meaningful or meaningless as before.
Conclusion
The biggest problem with professional sports organizations and the NCAA (if you think there is difference) is that they crave the casual fan. The casual fan is where the money is made. Dumbing down regular seasons and banking on explosive TV contracts for post season is something that has been picking up steam for years. This is always going to harm the integrity of the game. I think it harms the long term viability of the leagues but that's based on nothing.
No playoff system is perfect year in and year out. Some years the BCS gets the title game right, like this year. Some years its hard to say who deserves to go over who. The NCAA Basketball Tournament is fun, but makes the regular season meaningless for elite teams because does it really matter if your a 3 or 4 seed. The NBA and NHL playoffs are too long and too drawn out because too many teams make the playoffs. MLB and the NFL work pretty well but could use a few tweaks or at least could be stopped from getting out of hand. It has been touched on before but I love the idea of English Premier League Soccer where you play each team once home and away, team with the best record at year end wins it. This isn't always perfect either if the second place team sweeps the first place team it feels cheapened. The reality is no playoff system will be perfect year in and year out.
In the interest of fairness, I think most of us would like to see the best team win the title. The most deserving team should win it all and it should be clear. The regular season should matter and you should be rewarded for finishing atop the standings in the regular season. Playoffs should be exclusive and it should be a big deal when you reach them. The teams that reach the playoffs should all feel they have a legitimate chance to beat anyone and win the title.
NBA
Now: 82 game season, 30 Teams, 2 Conferences of 15, Top 8 in each conference make the post season.
It's hard to argue that the regular season matters all that much for probably 8 teams a year that could walk their way into the postseason. Sure there are team that's are fighting at the end of the season to be a 7 or 8 seed, but how often does a 7 or 8 seed make it past the second round. Cinderella does not exist in the NBA. So many teams make the post season, so the interest doesn't really wane as much in some cities. Or at least that's the NBA theory and it's short sighted. Fans want to watch games that matter and few ultimately do in the NBA. So you may have already tuned the league out all together. Gate receipts are important, but TV is where money is for the league. Why would someone tune in to watch the Heat and Nets play 4 times a year? Yes, the NBA has a bad reputation because of a perceived lack of effort and lack of defense but if the games matter more I would think the play would pick up. You could also reward teams for finishing 9 vs. 10 in the league with monetary bonuses.
It will never happen proposal : Do away with conferences, play 58 games (each team home and away once)
8 Teams make the postseason. Every series is a best of 3. 1vs8 and so on. Same home court advantage rules apply.
NHL
Now: Same as NBA across the board, except silly shootouts to break ties. 84 Games instead of 82 though.
Hockey is probably most random for determining outcomes. I would guess that in hockey more than any other sport, the team that deserves to win does not. How often do you see a team doubled in shots and scoring chances and lose? Usually its because of a deflection or something fluky too. This makes it hard to determine a proper champion and the Stanley Cup playoffs rarely go according to script.
It will never happen: I know I know the Stanley Cup playoffs are perfect, but they render the regular season virtually useless. I'm in favor of keeping series at 7 games and cutting the playoff teams to 12 incorporating byes for top teams, or simply dropping to 8 teams.
NFL
32 Teams with 12 making the playoffs, 16 game regular season for now
The NFL playoff system is one of the better ones but no playoff system is perfect year in and year out. Sometimes the most deserving team is not going to win, but that is what makes sports interesting I suppose. Is it really fair that the Giants beat a previously undefeated Patriots team to win the Super Bowl despite having lost to them at home in the regular season? To me it feels wrong no matter how yummy Belichick's tears taste. The Giants still did the impossible and you have to give them a ton of credit.
The bye structure for the playoffs work well. The best teams are appropriately rewarded with a an easier path to the Super Bowl and a home playoff game against the a opponent based on seeding. The only issue I have with the NFL playoffs are guaranteeing a playoff spot to a 4-team division. Divisions should probably be larger but its hard to do that evenly with 32 teams. So instead I would like to see the there not be an automatic births and home playoff game for divisional winners. It would seem cold not to allow a divisional winner into the playoffs but the Seahawks getting in at 7-9 can't happen. You also have to question the point of divisions when the Raiders can run the table (6-0) in the division and not make the playoffs. Perhaps I can concede that the divisions remain in tact to protect some rivalries but perhaps you are not guaranteed the post season for winning your division. Finish with a winning record or watch someone else take your place.
MLB
162 games, 30 teams, 8 make the playoffs
Some people on this blog would say the baseball playoff are perfect. It is true that it works well but I terrified of the prospect of the playoffs getting expanded. This would further harm the integrity of the regular season. I am not even a fan of the Wild Card but I can deal with it. The marathon season in baseball is a thing of beauty and I'd hate to see it harmed by more teams polluting the post season. I want it to be a big deal when the Yankees and Red Sox are fighting for the post season. Expanded playoffs would farther guarantee their appearance. It could also mean that a red hot team could pick off the team with the best record in baseball in round 1. The league season is long enough to decide who the best teams are so I prefer them to be exclusive. Baseball feels different in the postseason because your weaknesses are exposed (usually pitching). Thoughts on if this is a good thing?
College Basketball
345 Teams, 68 make Tournament
The ever expanding NCAA Tournament will continue to be fun but for the elite teams the regular season becomes more and more meaningless. Some of the elite teams can get bounced from the tournament making them feel like they have accomplished little on the season. This is often harsh, but it makes the tournament exciting to the casual viewers of the sport. While the NCAA tournament is insane and the best team may not always win, the champion is always deserving for having marched through 6 straight games victorious.
NCAA Football
12 Games + Conference Title Game, BCS Title Game
This is a playoff system that people can't stand. To hell with you casual fan. The BCS is far from perfect. The old bowl alliance may be better still, but the bottom line is every week in the season matters right now. When actually determining a National Champion, how often does the best team win it? Most of the time? Say 2 out of 3? Can we at least agree that this is on par with other sports if not better. Does anyone think the Giants were the best team this past season? But yet they won the World Series. How bout the 2006 Cardinals? The majority does not argue who wins professional sports titles because there is a playoff, so the winner of said playoff must be the best. Bullocks. Muckrakers like Dan Wetzel can bitch all they want and drum up controversy for book sales and to further their careers but a 16 team playoff with all league champions is dumber than any playoff, in any league.
The BCS can be improved upon though. If I said otherwise I would be as big a dolt as the people that argue for a 16 team playoff. I argue against a playoff in college football because I know that when it does come, it will bastardize the regular season and be as poorly constructed as everything other playoff system in America. However, here is my official endorsement for you college football playoff to be constructed and never changed.
6 teams make the post season. #1 and #2 receive a bye. #3 hosts #6 and #4 hosts #5. The championship game is at the Rose Bowl and it never rotates to an indoor NFL stadium. Neutral bowl sight games deep in the south get shot straight to hell. Ohio Stadium hosts a game in December and the Florida Gators will freeze because the Buckeyes earned that home game in the regular season.
This year's system
#6 Ohio State @ #3 TCU
#5 Stanford @ #4 Wisconsin
#1 Auburn and #2 Oregon receive byes. (This idea is not my own, it was created by MGoblog.com)
In this system marquee games have meaning, unlike the annual Orange Bowl match up. The BCS essentially dies but the bowl system remains in place and bowl match ups are just as meaningful or meaningless as before.
Conclusion
The biggest problem with professional sports organizations and the NCAA (if you think there is difference) is that they crave the casual fan. The casual fan is where the money is made. Dumbing down regular seasons and banking on explosive TV contracts for post season is something that has been picking up steam for years. This is always going to harm the integrity of the game. I think it harms the long term viability of the leagues but that's based on nothing.
No playoff system is perfect year in and year out. Some years the BCS gets the title game right, like this year. Some years its hard to say who deserves to go over who. The NCAA Basketball Tournament is fun, but makes the regular season meaningless for elite teams because does it really matter if your a 3 or 4 seed. The NBA and NHL playoffs are too long and too drawn out because too many teams make the playoffs. MLB and the NFL work pretty well but could use a few tweaks or at least could be stopped from getting out of hand. It has been touched on before but I love the idea of English Premier League Soccer where you play each team once home and away, team with the best record at year end wins it. This isn't always perfect either if the second place team sweeps the first place team it feels cheapened. The reality is no playoff system will be perfect year in and year out.
In the interest of fairness, I think most of us would like to see the best team win the title. The most deserving team should win it all and it should be clear. The regular season should matter and you should be rewarded for finishing atop the standings in the regular season. Playoffs should be exclusive and it should be a big deal when you reach them. The teams that reach the playoffs should all feel they have a legitimate chance to beat anyone and win the title.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Cinq Pour Samedi
70 games over the course of 14 weeks were not enough to settle the friendly competition between Kevin and me, and each of us going 4-1 for Championship Weekend at the beginning of this month has the end of our NCAA season resembling the end of Rocky II. We decided our tiebreaking strategy would be to each take 5 games on New Year's weekend and then see where we stood. If we are still tied after that, then we'll take the remaining BCS games and hope it works itself out from there. For fun, and in light of the inordinate proportion of the Rockythons I caught on Versus last weekend, I'm going to draw a parallel between each game I pick and its closest Rocky equivalent. Obviously, all games are neutral sites so there are technically no home teams.
Notre Dame (+3) over Miami (Sun Bowl, Friday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky II
Rocky II was tagged "The Rematch of the Century," and this Notre Dame-Miami game is the first meeting between the two programs since both were perennial powers 20 years ago. Also in that movie, Rocky Balboa was forced to switch up and fight right-handed in order to avoid further damage to his right eye that he'd sustained fighting Apollo Creed lefty the first time around. In this game, Notre Dame would be well-served to switch up their offensive thinking, which for most of this year has consisted of living and dying by the over-the-top passing game. However, the Irish aren't potent enough to beat Miami's stellar pass defense but should be able to find running lanes against the Hurricanes, who gave up - this is not a misprint - 231 yards per game on the ground in their last three games of the regular season. The long layoff before bowl games has been known to be a momentum-stopper, but I can't ignore the disparity between how these two teams played toward the end of the season.
Michigan State (+10) over Alabama (Capital One Bowl, Saturday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky IV
You know if I'm comparing a game to Rocky IV, then I expect it to be entertaining. Alabama reminds me a bit of Ivan Drago in that has killed its overmatched opponents this year but seemingly has had everything else handed to them on reputation. Even though the Crimson Tide's running game can be powerful like Drago's 1,850-Psi punch, their offense can sometimes be one-dimensional. Michigan State represents the Big Ten in the arms race against the SEC (yes I did just compare the SEC to communist Russia but let's just go with it) and boasts an offense that can wear you down if you let them get too close, which is just what Alabama's defense had happen to it against Auburn and LSU. All Rocky set out to do was take everything Drago had and be left standing at the end, and all the Spartans have to do is be standing at the end of this one. There's no reason they can't keep it close. Now all we have to do is invent a drinking game to go with this.
Penn State (+7) over Florida (Outback Bowl, Saturday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky Balboa
This might have been the easiest bowl game to compare to a Rocky movie, just because seeing 84-year-old Joe Paterno on the sidelines conjures the same "isn't he way too old for this?" thought that seeing 60-year-old Rocky Balboa in the ring did. On the field, the only real edge that Florida has over Penn State is (you guessed it!) speed, and the Nittany Lions' best chance to win would be with good old fashioned blunt-force trauma, namely Evan Royster and his 4.9 yards per carry. The Gators didn't show nearly enough in their last few games to make you feel confident in laying anything more than 2-3 points.
Notre Dame (+3) over Miami (Sun Bowl, Friday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky II
Rocky II was tagged "The Rematch of the Century," and this Notre Dame-Miami game is the first meeting between the two programs since both were perennial powers 20 years ago. Also in that movie, Rocky Balboa was forced to switch up and fight right-handed in order to avoid further damage to his right eye that he'd sustained fighting Apollo Creed lefty the first time around. In this game, Notre Dame would be well-served to switch up their offensive thinking, which for most of this year has consisted of living and dying by the over-the-top passing game. However, the Irish aren't potent enough to beat Miami's stellar pass defense but should be able to find running lanes against the Hurricanes, who gave up - this is not a misprint - 231 yards per game on the ground in their last three games of the regular season. The long layoff before bowl games has been known to be a momentum-stopper, but I can't ignore the disparity between how these two teams played toward the end of the season.
Michigan State (+10) over Alabama (Capital One Bowl, Saturday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky IV
You know if I'm comparing a game to Rocky IV, then I expect it to be entertaining. Alabama reminds me a bit of Ivan Drago in that has killed its overmatched opponents this year but seemingly has had everything else handed to them on reputation. Even though the Crimson Tide's running game can be powerful like Drago's 1,850-Psi punch, their offense can sometimes be one-dimensional. Michigan State represents the Big Ten in the arms race against the SEC (yes I did just compare the SEC to communist Russia but let's just go with it) and boasts an offense that can wear you down if you let them get too close, which is just what Alabama's defense had happen to it against Auburn and LSU. All Rocky set out to do was take everything Drago had and be left standing at the end, and all the Spartans have to do is be standing at the end of this one. There's no reason they can't keep it close. Now all we have to do is invent a drinking game to go with this.
Penn State (+7) over Florida (Outback Bowl, Saturday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky Balboa
This might have been the easiest bowl game to compare to a Rocky movie, just because seeing 84-year-old Joe Paterno on the sidelines conjures the same "isn't he way too old for this?" thought that seeing 60-year-old Rocky Balboa in the ring did. On the field, the only real edge that Florida has over Penn State is (you guessed it!) speed, and the Nittany Lions' best chance to win would be with good old fashioned blunt-force trauma, namely Evan Royster and his 4.9 yards per carry. The Gators didn't show nearly enough in their last few games to make you feel confident in laying anything more than 2-3 points.
TCU (-3) over Wisconsin (Rose Bowl, Saturday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky IIITry to tell me that Rocky's run of 10 title defenses in the beginning of Rocky III doesn't remind you of TCU running the table this year over its relatively mediocre competition. And try to tell me that Wisconsin, with their nuts-and-bolts, beat-the-hell-out-of-you-the-old-fashioned-way style and their status as a slight underdog from the Midwest doesn't make you think of Clubber Lang a little bit. The Horned Frogs are out to show that they are no paper champion and a BCS bowl victory before they bolt for the Big East would accomplish that. I must admit I'm not crazy about this pick, especially when the line is begging you to take Wisconsin, but my prevailing thought is to take the team with the better defense since the long pre-bowl layoffs can put rust on even the best offenses for a quarter or so. If TCU is up to the challenge presented by the Badgers' three-headed backfield monster (and more importantly, the five-headed offensive line monster), then I like their chances in the Granddaddy of Them All.
Oklahoma (-16.5) over Connecticut (Fiesta Bowl, Saturday)
-Rocky counterpart: Rocky
The long-established power Oklahoma goes up against a relative upstart (UConn is in just their 9th season as a Division I-A, I mean FCS, team) whose mere presence in the game is questioned by many (we don't need to delve any further into the matter of the Big East's automatic bid this year). Sound a little bit like Apollo Creed giving the unknown Rocky Balboa a shot at the title, for little reason beyond Rocky a.) living in Philly, and b.) having a cool nickname? Unfortunately for the Huskies, the similarities between the 2011 Fiesta Bowl and the original Rocky pretty much end there. UConn has zero passing game and will be in big trouble if they get behind by two scores or more. This Oklahoma team showed me enough in the late part of the season (especially against Oklahoma State and Nebraska) for me to ignore some of the deuces that Bob Stoops' teams have dropped in BCS games in recent years. I echo Kevin's sentiment - Sooners by 3 TD's or more.
Two things of note. One, I know I chose not to include Rocky V in my bowl game comparisons. That is because Rocky V represents about 75% of the bowl season altogether - barely watchable and unnecessary. Two, in the first time all year that Kevin and I have taken the same five games, we are different on the Sun Bowl and on the Rose Bowl, so provided there are no pushes, someone is winning this thing by two games or else we'll see you back here next week.
Last Week: 4-1-0
Season: 38-28-4
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