5 for Sunday

Starting to show signs of life with the pro games - who would have thought, two entire weeks in a row above .500! Home teams in CAPS.

Miami (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road so far and got jobbed last week against Pittsburgh. The Bengals are back to being the Bungles, dropping 3 straight by a field goal each. Whether they are playing up or down to their opponent, the Bengals have been doing just enough to lose. Pacman Jones is headed to IR, leaving Leon Hall to try to cover Brandon Marshall, which may create mismatches with linebackers or safeties against Dolphins slot receiver Davone Bess, one of the more exciting offensive players in the league that doesn't get enough press.

DETROIT (-2.5) over Washington
I have to be out of my mind laying points with the Lions, but like I said a few weeks back, the Redskins have yet to win a game that wasn't put on a platter for them by their opponent's miscues. Last week they needed four INT's from Jay Cutler to DeAngelo Hall (each one worse than the next) as well as a deplorable blown call/non-challenge at the goal line to overcome Donovan McNabb's putrid game and beat the Bears 17-14. What's worse is that the Redskins own ineptitude saved the game for them, as a pick-six by the Bears was negated by a Washington delay of game penalty. Detroit has been in every game this year and is coming off a bye, so what the heck.

NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Minnesota
Now that I finally got a Patriots game right last week, I'll try for two in a row. Hmm, a 5-1 team at home giving less than a touchdown to an opponent whose quarterback options include Tarvaris Jackson and Brett "aging faster than Robin Williams in the movie Jack" Favre on a fractured ankle? Where do I sign?

SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Tennessee
I've gone on record in regards to my opinion of the Chargers, but I can't shake my gut feeling about this one. Their offense woke up in the 4th quarter against New England last week and has already gotten their 7th round draft pick's worth from Patrick Crayton. Watching Tennessee against the Eagles last week, it was clear that their offense was basically "let Chris Johnson dance around and then throw it high and far to Kenny Britt," the latter of which was unstoppable in the second half. The unfortunate part for the Titans is that Vince Young is likely to return, which means that many of those bombs to Britt will be 3-4 yards off target.

Pittsburgh (+1) over NEW ORLEANS
Not that I want this to happen, but the Steelers can seemingly do no wrong this year. They are flying around on defense and getting the benefit of borderline calls when needed, as well as showcasing the ability to strike downfield if you try too hard to stop Rashard Mendenhall. Meanwhile, the Saints can't keep a running back healthy and have the Bayou wondering how long the honeymoon is. I refuse to overreact to the egg the Saints laid against the Browns last week, but the Steelers have that close-game quality about them thus far and I think they take it 24-21 or so.

Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 14-19-2

Cinq Pour Samedi

Kind of scraping for five quality games this week, but as the conference and BCS pictures come into clearer focus, every game starts to carry more weight. Home teams, as always, in CAPS.

Michigan State (+6.5) over IOWA
I may be kicking myself because usually when a line jumps out at me I go the other way, but I don't get why this isn't a 3-point spread, especially with Iowa coming off a loss last week and Michigan State entering 8-0. I know the Spartans created an undue amount of work for themselves with Northwestern, but like Kevin said, it seems that everyone is ignoring the fact that Iowa allowed Wisconsin to trick them out of a game in which they had control. If I'm Michigan State, I'd start smelling blood this week, because if they can escape Iowa with a W then a perfect regular season is well within reason.

Oklahoma State (-5) over KANSAS STATE
It's no secret that Kansas State should try to run all day, seeing that they are #24 in the nation in rushing and would like to bleed the clock as much as possible to keep Oklahoma State and its 3rd-ranked passing attack at bay. Also not going the Cowboys' way is wide receiver Justin Blackmon likely being out after getting a DUI this week. However, Oklahoma State can run it too (179.7 yards/game), so just because they may not throw 40 up on the board doesn't mean they can't beat K-State by a touchdown.

Missouri (+7.5) over NEBRASKA
The Tigers became the latest to knock off #1 last week with their 36-27 conquest of Oklahoma, and some may say they're due for a letdown. From what I saw, it was a game that Missouri was prepared to win, not lucky to win. Nebraska, on the other hand, solidified themselves with a road win over Oklahoma State and returns home this week, where in an odd trend they have not covered a spread this year (0-3-1 ATS). Missouri's defense will face a tall task in containing Taylor Martinez, but an offense that hinges too much on one player becomes more predictable as the game goes on and stays close - provided the defense in question has the talent to cover its gaps, which Missouri does. The winner of this game will go a long way in securing itself a spot in the Big 12 title game. I'll take the points and have my popcorn ready.

Michigan (-3) over PENN STATE
As Kevin said, he and I will be in attendance for this one, and since my write-up on this game would never hold a candle to his, just read his entry for anything you'd want to know. We all know how I don't like Penn State, and I hope I enjoy my day as a Michigan fan at their expense. Hail to the Victors.

Oregon (-6.5) over USC
There has been a lot of chatter this week about the emergence of Matt Barkley, how USC is a quiet 5-2, and how this will be the Trojans' "bowl game" this year since the program is bowl-ineligible. Those are all fair points, but how can you go against an Oregon team that seems to start the game with 35 points already on the board?

Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 22-15-3

5 for Saturday

2-3 Last Week makes me 20-19-1 for the season. This ends the record discussion as the pressure of blowing a huge lead (over .500) has gotten to me.

Florida State @ N.C. State (+3.5) 7:30 ESPN Thursday
N.C. State has been fairly good, but inconsistent this year.  They always get up for this game though and the environment in Raleigh will be the best of the season.

Missouri (+7) @ Nebraska 3:30 ESPN

The line seems to be saying take Nebraska but Idk.  Nebraska is capable of shutting down Missouri but can you rely on Nebraska's offense?  I'll admit I have no clue what is going to happen.  I can see a shootout, I can see Nebraska's offense stalling and relying on their defense.

Florida vs. Georgia (-3) (@Jacksonville) 3:30 CBS

Georgia can turn the corner this weekend after a brutal start to the season.  Florida has been awful on offense but gets back  Chris "Time to Die, Bitch" Rainey this weekend which instantly improves the options for the Gators.  Simply put, Georgia is playing better football right now, and needs this more.

Michigan State (+6.5) @ Iowa  3:30 ABC

The line is telling you to take Iowa because Vegas doesn't believe in Michigan State.  Why they like Iowa still is beyond me.  Neither of these teams belong in the elite, but this should be a good football game.  Will CB Chris L. Rucker play despite being in prison since the Michigan game?  He got out this week and I bet Dantonio picked him up from jail.  The game will be close so I'll take State with the points and Iowa to win on a late field goal.

Michigan (-2) @ Penn State 8 ESPN

The major storyline in the national media is whether Robert Bolden will play for Penn State.  Joe Pa, says he is doubtful.  Jay Pa, says he is probable.  Reading the PSU blogs I'm not sure they care.  Bolden, a true freshman was recruited but never offered by Michigan.  His backup Kevin Newsome, was a Michigan Decommit and is part of the reason Tate Foricer and Denard Robinson are at Michigan.  Allow me to thank Kevin Newsome again.  Point being is that Michigan knows each QB well, and should be more prepared to face them.  Finally, the man who saw the majority of the snaps when Bolden went out last week was former Walk-on Matt McGloin.  He was said to be impressive last week, but I'm guessing it was more in a way that fans didn't expect anything.

The biggest concerns for the Wolverines are the health of the two most important players on the team. Neither of them is Denard Robinson, although he says he's 100%.  NT Mike Martin was the victim of a cheap shot against Michigan State and only played a series against Iowa.  He is probable and if his ankle is 50% on Saturday Michigan should stick with him. C David Molk was limited last week as well not playing much more than Martin, and he is clearly Michigan's best offensive lineman.  He is also listed as probable with an ankle injury, but has a little more depth behind him. 

Penn State still has their defensive banged up but not nearly as bad as a couple weeks ago against Illinois.  They should field an average Big Ten defense this weekend. If Michigan can avoid a -2 turnover margin or worse they should win this football game. Penn State will have a hard time stopping the Wolverines from moving the football, but Michigan will need to put the ball in the end zone with their Special Ed kicking game.

Lou and I will be there Saturday night under the bright lights of Beaver Stadium listening to the awful piped in music that Penn State loves so much.  Here's to hoping it will be a great night to be a Michigan Wolverine.

Putting The Headset On: Down 15 Points

I'd like to start a new segment that should spark some discussion on this site among the readers.  In this new segment called "Putting The Headset On" you are placed in the position of head coach and you have a decision to make.

The first scenario is you are down 15 points with 4 minutes to play.  You score a touchdown to cut the lead to 9 points.  Do you...

A. Kick the extra point
B. Go for 2

Conventional wisdom will say go for the extra point and extend the game.  You will be down 8 points and it will still be a one score game.  The problem is that you are leaving the two point conversion try for later in the game.  At this point it will more than likely be your last gasp. 

There is no decision to make here.  I go for the two point conversion everytime in this situation for the following reasons.  You eventually have to go for two anyways and you mine as well be operating with the best information possible.  If you go for the two point conversion and fail you are down 9 points.  Being down 9 points you are going for an onside kick no matter what you timeout situation is.  If you don't go for two and choose to stay down 8 points you leave your are almost definitely kicking it deep and hoping to get the ball back.  Should your team get the ball back you need the two point point conversion to tie the game.  If you make it, great your going to overtime.  If you miss it, well here comes the onside kick and the desperate attempt to get down the field in a hurry.

To conclude: It may feel nice to say you are only down one score if you postpone going for two, but if you miss it you were really down two scores – just like if you missed it after the first TD. The only difference is that you are pretty much doomed if you were playing as if you were only down one score. If you miss after the first TD, there is more time left to try to get the necessary extra score and you can plan accordingly.

If you make it, it doesn’t matter when you went for it.  When playing the game of football you want to know what your up against and you want to give yourself the most information to make a decision from as possible.  Go for two here every time. 

I'll hang up and hope for you to explain to me why I'm wrong.

5 for Sunday

It worked! 2-1-2 in Week 6 using the George Costanza Opposite approach. Good to know that option is always there when you need a rebound week.

KANSAS CITY (-9.5) over Jacksonville
The Chiefs, with the exception of the 4th quarter last week against Houston (which included one of the most bogus pass interference calls you will ever see), have played very good defense this year. Jacksonville just got drubbed at home by Tennessee in front of 27 fans and lost David Garrard to injury, leaving Todd Bouman, who hasn't appeared in an NFL game since 2005, to start. That's all I have to say about that.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Buffalo
The Ravens have emerged 4-2 from a tough first 6 weeks that contained road games at the Jets, Steelers, and Patriots. They should be able to wail away on the poor Bills and head into their bye week. Ed Reed returns off the PUP list for Baltimore and will make Ryan Fitzpatrick's day even more eventful.

Arizona (+6.5) over SEATTLE
Beats me why this line is so high. Both teams are 3-2 in the craptastic NFC West, with Arizona coming off a bye. Seattle has played two very good games at home this year and outweighs Arizona in the most of the stat categories, which may explain how this line opened at 3.5 and has been bet up to 6.5 to this point - but that doesn't mean I have to believe it. I'll take my chances with the Cardinals and hope Larry Fitzgerald gets behind the Seahawk secondary once or twice now that he might have an actual quarterback to play with.

New England (+3) over SAN DIEGO
The Chargers are the Cowboys West. They have a clueless head coach who was born to be a coordinator, a potent offense and very good defense, but are 2-4 because they don't do little things right, turn the ball over, and look past opponents that they are better than. Philip Rivers could throw for 425 yards in this game and somehow the team will manage to score only 17 points. Of course, the questionable status of Antonio Gates and the loss of Malcom Floyd don't help either. By the way, has any team busted more survivor pools in one season than the 2010 Chargers (and we're only in Week 7)?

Oakland (+8) over DENVER
The Broncos played a good game against a good team last week and wound up with a 24-20 loss to the Jets to show for it. They are averaging 311 passing yards per game but a paltry 67 on the ground, while the Raiders give up a respectable 196 passing per game but an embarrassing 149 rushing. In other words, something's got to give, and I'll wager that Kyle Orton continues to come back down to earth after completing just 41% of his passes last week - and having Nnamdi Asomugha control at least a third of the field should help continue that trend. In other news, the Raiders are the leader in the clubhouse for this year's "team I seem to take all the time but am not exactly sure why."

Last Week: 2-1-2
Season: 11-17-2

Cinq Pour Samedi

My ability to keep my head well above water with the NCAA picks just goes to show that sometimes the more you know, the worse off you can be, and vice versa. You know the drill. All games are on Saturday, and home teams are in CAPS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) over Syracuse
While the 'Cuse has shown signs of life this year, they've lost to West Virginia eight straight years
(and only one of those games was decided by single digits) and should not have an easy time in Morgantown against a Mountaineer team with 9 days of rest. WVU does not run many scores up so I'm a bit cautious about laying 13.5 here, but they play too well at home for me to go any other way.

IOWA (-6) over Wisconsin
What I like about this game (besides the fact that it features two good teams) is that you can't play the tired "this team is coming off a big win last week" card, since it applies to both teams. Wisconsin won in typical Wisconsin fashion last week against Ohio State, by running for over 180 yards and completing 13 of just 16 passes. Iowa is going to try to beat the Badgers at their own game this week, but when push comes to shove the Hawkeyes have the more well-rounded offense and can put this one out of reach late, something like 24-14.

OKLAHOMA STATE (+6) over Nebraska
Shame on me for chugging the Nebraska Kool-Aid last week. OK State plays a wide-open brand of football that has them averaging 49.5 points a game (granted, much of the Big 12 has an NBA All-Star Game approach to defense, but still), and faces possibly the stiffest test it will have all season against the Cornhuskers. We'll see just how good Oklahoma State is here, but I think they can put enough points on the board to stay close at least. And hell, at least one football team named the Cowboys has to be able to put together a good game.

AUBURN (-5.5) over LSU
I still don't totally buy LSU even though I made the bonehead pick a few weeks ago when they faced a Florida team that was playing on one leg. Auburn is a much stronger 7-0 than LSU right now and has Cameron Newton in the middle of the still-too-soon Heisman talk. Less than a touchdown isn't too many points to give here.

Alabama (-16.5) over TENNESSEE
This smells like a classic "get healthy" game for Nick Saban and Alabama after losing two weeks ago to South Carolina and playing a tighter game than expected last week against Ole Miss. The Tide have the fortune of timing their loss fairly well, in that Ohio State coughed up the #1 ranking immediately after they did - meaning that if Oregon ever loses it would put a one-loss Alabama team right back in the BCS and AP mix. Tennessee has already gotten its doors blown off at home this year, and judging by its 41-14 loss to Georgia two weeks ago, has not been able to build on the 59 minutes of solid football they played at LSU.

Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 20-12-3

NFL Announces Rule Changes

From NAGAYT wire reports

The NFL has announced they will bar any tackling from future NFL games.  Instead the NFL has decided to use "two hand touch" in future games effective immediately.  The NFL cited recent studies on the effects of concussions as the reason for making the change.  NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell commented on the new rule.  "This move will allow us to protect are players and ensure they have lives after football"  No longer will we have a bunch of whiny old players complaining about their health and demanding medical care after they are done football.  We think the change solves lingering issues and will allow us to improve the product for our fans going forward."  The NFL has instructed the referees to make sure the "two hand touches" are firm but not rough.  "Rough touch is not going to be allowed.  There is no reason to knock a player down in two hand touch, any player who tackles or rough touches a player will be penalized 15 yards and be subject to suspension." League officials were split over whether or not to allow one hand touch but ultimately went to two.

Fans were split over the new changes to the NFL. 

Tom Perki, 32 said "The NFL has become so soft that Soccer is a rougher sport.  If that's not a sign of the end of the world I don't know what is." 

Jen Soccermom, 35 said "I had never allowed my kids to play football because they are made of glass.  I'm happy the NFL has finally come to their senses.  I will wait to see what Pop Warner decides to do but maybe I will let my son play football in the future.

College coaches weighed in on the issue as well.

Head Coach of Michigan, Rich Rodriguez was excited about the change and hoped the NCAA would follow suit. "I think its a great idea.  If we don't have to tackle anybody, maybe we can finally win some games. This or flag football and I think we can compete for the National Title today."

The NFL said it will review the possibility of going to a 32 game schedule starting next year.  "The players will be taking less hits so I say let's play two games a week.  18 game schedule be dammed, let's double profits."  The NFLPA released a statement saying they would be open to the possibility of an increased schedule if the money is right.

5 for Saturday

18-16-1 on the season after 1-4 last week.  Need to turn things around this week.

UCLA (+21.5) @ Oregon Thursday 8 PM ESPN

Call this conservative but I have been struggling so I'll take the points here and hope the UCLA that bashed Texas shows up.  If Oregon is held under 42 points I'd feel like I'm in good shape here.

All other games are Saturday.

LSU @ Auburn (-6.5) 3:30 CBS

One of these paper tiger unbeatens will fall this week.  LSU has a defense and no offense, Auburn has an offense and no defense.  I think Auburn is the better overall team, LSU has been lucky and their luck may finally run out this weekend.

Wisconsin (+5) @ Iowa 3:30 ABC

This is suddenly an enormous game in the Big Ten.  The winner is in great shape to challenge for the title.  I still believe Wisconsin is a slightly better football team.  Wisconsin has a deeper stable of backs and should be able to run the ball better and work off play action.

Nebraska @ Oklahoma State (+9.5) 3:30 ESPN Gameplan

I got burned with Nebraska last week giving 9.5, I'll go the other way here.  While I don't think Oklahoma State is as good as their undefeated record shows, I think they deserve a little bit more respect here.

Oklahoma (-3) @ Missouri  8 PM ABC

Suddenly this game is interesting.  Neither team exudes National Title contender at the moment and one will be eliminated from contention after this weekend.  Oklahoma has historically dominted Mizzou and I don't see that changing here.

When is it OK to Boo?

This year, both League Championship Series feature prominent players squaring off against their old teams - Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira vs. the Rangers, and Pat Burrell vs. the Phillies. As expected, each player has been on the receiving end of some hearty booing from the opposing fans. Not that I'm opposed to booing the away team's players, but the games of the past few days have had me thinking about when is it or is it not appropriate to boo an opponent, especially if he used to play for your team.

We'll deal with Burrell first. The Citizens Bank Park crowd didn't boo him mercilessly, but the booing definitely outweighed any "welcome back" golf clapping. Did he deserve it? Yes, I think he did, in light of the manner in which he left the team after 2008. Pat the Bat made it abundantly clear that he was going to take his pull-happy swing and no-play-is-routine defensive skills elsewhere. Nevertheless, Burrell was a consistent producer and did a great deal to help the team up off the mat after the Terry Francona days. Let's also not forget that he was taken with the draft choice given back to the team after J.D. Drew refused to sign in 1997. All in all, Burrell got a fair reception in Game 1. When you willingly spurn your original team for money, especially as a free agent leaving a fairly well-heeled team like the Phillies, the booing is justified. There are exceptions, but generally it's a good rule of thumb.

On the matters of Tex, I have a major issue with the Rangers fans. Maybe I'm just a huge Yankee homer, but I'd like to remind the Dallas-Fort Worth area that Mark Teixeira did not leave the Rangers of his own volition - he was traded away to Atlanta at the 2007 deadline. Not only has Teixeira never said anything negative about the Rangers organization (although friction between him and Bubbles - wait, I mean Ron Washington - is acknowledged), please take a look at what that trade netted them. If you scroll down to the "Transactions" section of this page, you'll see that the Rangers owe their starting shortstop and flamethrowing closer to the Teixeira trade. Fans of the Angels have a something of right to boo Tex because he left them in free agency, but even then he was only in Anaheim for 3 months. The Rangers fans, however, should be thanking their lucky lone stars that Teixeira's time in Texas ended the way it did, for their team would likely not be nearly as complete otherwise.

And now, we move on to A-Rod. Of course he's going to get booed everywhere, because he's A-Rod. There's no issue with that. However (and this is reason #2 why the Dallas area sports fans are on my shit list right now, reason #1 is coming in a future post about my trip down there), the "You did steroids!" chant while A-Rod is at the plate is utterly stupid. Yes, he took PEDs. And you know what team he was playing for during the time that his steroid use was proven? That's right, the Texas Rangers! How can you do a steroids chant at a guy who did them while he was playing for YOUR TEAM? I'll bet the few fans that even paid mind to the Rangers in those days sure didn't have such a beef with A-Rod when he was averaging 52 homers and 132 RBI a year for them. Not to mention, he also left the team via a trade, a trade that greatly helped the Rangers escape the financial hole that his $252MM contract put them in and begin using their money to build an entire team. I've written on this topic before, but it's not Alex Rodriguez's fault that the Rangers jumped in way over their heads when they signed him in 2001.

So when is it OK to boo a player coming back with a different team? Well, first and foremost, if the guy sucked when he played for your team, then boo the hell out of him. If he was an irresponsible douche who couldn't stay off the DL, then boo him with everything you've got. If he bad-mouthed the city, the fans, the organization, or any of the above during his time there, then you're fine to boo. If he caused internal problems on the team leading to his ultimate departure, it's fair game. On the other hand, use discretion if the guy helped your team win a championship, if honest injuries derailed his tenure, or if he was traded away without demanding so. There are more examples, unwritten rules, and exceptions out there, so feel free to add anything in the comments section.

5 for Sunday

We've reached that point. Like I said last week, another bad week and I'd be forced to go the George Costanza route and do the opposite of every instinct I have. Like Jerry told him - if every instinct I've had is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right. Fortunately, since I've been able to muster at least one win each week I'll go opposite on four and stick to my guns on one. Home teams in CAPS.

Detroit (+10) over NY GIANTS
The Giants have beat the hell out of Houston and Chicago the last two weeks and now come home against a Detroit team is trying to shed its doormat label. The blowout win against the Rams was a nice step, but I don't know if Shaun Hill and the Lions have a better game in them, especially on the road in windy conditions. The Giants defense is playing like it did during its Super Bowl run three years ago, which makes me like the Giants very much in this game. So, that being said, give me the Lions plus the 10 points.

Cleveland (+13.5) over PITTSBURGH
Ben Roethlisberger, he of Excite Bikes and Surprise Sex, makes his return from suspension in this game, and you couldn't have a more gift-wrapped day for him. The Steelers are coming off their bye and have been able to keep their defense's difference-maker Troy Polamalu healthy this far. Meanwhile, the Browns are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback, and a road game at Pittsburgh is likely the last place on the list of settings where you'd want to make your first NFL start. This may be the most popular Survivor pool pick of the week. I really don't think the Browns will crack 7 points. So....give me Cleveland.

Baltimore (+3) over NEW ENGLAND
I'm a big believer in addition by subtraction, and the Randy Moss trade lines the Pats up for some nice Ewing Theory karma. Not to mention, they are also coming off their bye and you have a feeling there will be some wrinkles in store to confuse the Baltimore defense, which will be the first to see the Patriots offense in its new sans-Moss approach. The special teams play from New England in their Monday Night rout of the Dolphins in Week 4 was a reminder that this a superbly coached football team. So.....I'll take the Ravens +3.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Oakland
The Raiders took a defensive nap for two quarters and still managed to sneak up on San Diego last week, thanks to two blocked punts in the 1st quarter and a fumble return TD in the 4th quarter. San Francisco, on the other hand. once again demonstrated their prowess at finding ways to lose games last week against the Eagles. The Raiders have been in every game besides their opener at Tennessee and are a Sebastian Janikowski chip shot against Arizona from being 3-2. Even with Jason Campbell having to start again for Oakland, there's hardly anything that could make me side with the 49ers in this game. But that is the power of the Opposite. San Fran minus the points, as I keep myself from dry-heaving.

Indianapolis (-3) over WASHINGTON
Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. So there's that, plus I want to see the Redskins win a game that isn't given away to them before I ever buy them. Can't go against the instinct on this one - Manning outweighs the Opposite.

Last Week: 1-4-0
Season: 9-16-0