Sometimes I'm glad I don't live in Nevada, because with the NFL run I've been on lately, I definitely would have taken my winnings and spent it irresponsibly. Home teams in CAPS.
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Francisco
Let's make this quick. Green Bay beats up on bad teams (don't let last Monday fool you, the 49ers are quite the bad team). The 49ers are on a short week, playing their second straight road game, and have to fly across two time zones and play a 1:00 game. Frank Gore is out for the season and there's a reason Brian Westbrook barely saw the field all year until five days ago. Sunday's forecast in Green Bay is 26 degrees. Why is this line not 11.5-12?
New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI
The weather conditions in Cincy kind of scare me, considering the Saints are the quintessential dome team, but sign me up for laying one score to this Bengal team that's lost 8 in a row. Bengal fans right now must feel like James Caan at the end of The Program (the video isn't the scene I'm talking about but it'll do) when he looks into Lattimer's eyes and knows that he's back on steroids - all of their suspicion is confirmed and they know that their team's 2009 season was a fraud.
Buffalo (+5.5) over MINNESOTA
That dome-field advantage for the Vikings isn't quite what it was last year, but at least we know the "FIRE CHILDRESS" chants will be no more. Talking heads say the Vikings have to start Tarvaris Jackson to see if they have a QB they can work with or not, but there's no way that interim coach Leslie Frazier does that, considering he has to win in this audition to improve his chances at a head coaching job, wherever it might be. You can't ask a man trying to get to the pinnacle of his profession to voluntarily put someone like Tarvaris Jackson on the field. Jackson gives them zero chance to win, but fortunately for Buffalo, Brett Favre doesn't do the Vikings a ton of favors either. The Bills are somehow still undervalued despite doing nothing but playing close games for almost 2 months now.
BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh
The last seven games between these teams (including an AFC Championship meeting) have been decided by a grand total of 31 points, so no one's going out on a limb telling you to expect a close one. However, if Ben Roethlisberger's foot is half as bad as it's made out to be, he won't be able to buy as much time on broken passing plays by running away from defenders like they're bouncers at a college bar. I'd love to see Big Ben roll right and throw the ball across the field and across his body right into Ray Lewis' or Ed Reed's hands a few times. Ravens by something like 23-17.
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over NY Jets (Monday Night)
The Jets aren't really going to sweep the Pats, are they? New England should let Darrelle Revis cover Deion Branch all he wants and just dink and dunk their way down the field all night. The Jets love to blitz, which plays right into the Pats' hands considering how often they throw hitches and slants to Wes Welker out of the shotgun. As long as Tom Brady can get the ball out of his hands quickly enough, the Jets may have problems tackling the likes of Welker and New England's two tight ends in the open field, especially now that safety Jim Leonhard broke his leg in practice this week. I don't know that the Jets will score enough in this one and it's going to take at least 24 points to win.
Last Week: 4-1-0