Lost some ground to Kevin last week but remained profitable at 3-2. Not the greatest set of games this week, but it'll do.
MICHIGAN (-4.5) over Michigan State
I really like the way Michigan has played at home this year. They've had games against UMass and Indiana that were closer than they should have been but in the end, Shoelace has always been the difference. Michigan State has played a few thrillers already (Notre Dame, Wisconsin) but in order to win this one, it's going to be a matter of containing a player that no one else has figured out how to contain yet.
FLORIDA (-6.5) over Louisiana State
The Gators still have a lot going for them, the sizable loss at Alabama last week notwithstanding. LSU, however, is coming off two straight underwhelming performances at home against West Virginia and Tennessee. This game has been taken off the board at several Vegas books in light of QB John Brantley's questionable status, but it's more likely than not that he will play. My first instinct says to still go with Florida at home, not to mention that putting money behind LSU right now is a very shaky proposal.
NOTRE DAME (-6) over Pittsburgh
At this point in the season, a team's identity starts to come into focus. The Irish are (as expected) up-again and down-again. Pitt, on the other hand, is likely facing the reality of a rebuilding year, although a win in South Bend can keep them breathing in the mediocre Big East. I have a feeling that Notre Dame, at least on this day, finds the right way to use its offensive weapons and wins this by at least 8.
Florida State (+6.5) over MIAMI
Every time I see this matchup on the schedule I get wistful for the 1990s and early-2000s glory days. Be that as it may, this is actually a fairly interesting game again. This line seems two points too high, however, when you consider that the Hurricanes don't have nearly the home-field advantage at Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Dolphin/Landshark/Dolphins/Sun Life Stadium that they did at the old Orange Bowl and the crowd has a good chance to be bipartisan. Jacory Harris isn't 100%, and the Miami offense does everything through him, so I like the points here. Plus, it's got to end on a missed field goal one way or the other, right?
STANFORD (-9.5) over Southern California
This is a season of change in the Pac-10, and this game figures to be another testament to that. Stanford is probably a year ahead of its time and that showed toward the end of the shootout against Oregon last week, but USC is not USC anymore. I seem to pick their game every week, but the washed up quarterback in me really likes the combination of Andrew Luck and coach Jim Harbaugh. It should be a fun time on the Stanford campus this Saturday as they gear up for the first big home test of the year.
Last Week: 3-2-0